After 7 years, a spent Falcon 9 rocket stage is on course to hit the Moon:
SpaceX launched its first interplanetary mission nearly seven years ago. After the Falcon 9 rocket's second stage completed a long burn to reach a transfer orbit, NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory began its journey to a Sun-Earth LaGrange point more than 1 million km from the Earth.
By that point, the Falcon 9 rocket's second stage was high enough that it did not have enough fuel to return to Earth's atmosphere. It also lacked the energy to escape the gravity of the Earth-Moon system, so it has been following a somewhat chaotic orbit since February 2015.
Now, according to sky observers, the spent second stage's orbit is on course to intersect with the Moon. According to Bill Gray, who writes the widely used Project Pluto software to track near-Earth objects, asteroids, minor planets, and comets, such an impact could come in March.
Earlier this month, Gray put out a call for amateur and professional astronomers to make additional observations of the stage, which appears to be tumbling through space. With this new data, Gray now believes that the Falcon 9's upper stage will very likely impact the far side of the Moon, near the equator, on March 4. More information can be found here.
Some uncertainties remain. As the object is tumbling, it is difficult to precisely predict the effects of sunlight "pushing" on the rocket stage and thus making slight alterations to its orbit. "These unpredictable effects are very small," Gray writes. But they will accumulate between now and March 4, and further observations are needed to refine the precise time and location of the impact.
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Astronomers now say the rocket about to strike the Moon is not a Falcon 9:
About three weeks ago Ars Technica first reported that astronomers were tracking the upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket, and were increasingly confident that it would strike the Moon on March 4.
This story set off a firestorm of media activity. Much of this coverage criticized SpaceX for failing to properly dispose of the second stage of its Falcon 9 rocket after the launch of NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory mission, or DSCOVR, in 2015. The British tabloids, in particular, had a field day. Even the genteel European Space Agency tut-tutted, noting that it takes care to preserve enough fuel to put spent rocket stages into stable orbits around the Sun.
However, it turns out we were all wrong. A Falcon 9 rocket is not going to, in fact, strike the Moon next month. Instead, it's probably a Chinese rocket.
[...] Gray wrote. "But I would regard it as fairly convincing evidence. So I am persuaded that the object about to hit the moon on 2022 Mar 4 at 12:25 UTC is actually the Chang'e 5-T1 rocket stage."
Related: After 7 Years, a Spent Falcon 9 Rocket Stage is on Course to Hit the Moon
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 25 2022, @02:47PM (1 child)
Trashes everybody else's space but his own.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 25 2022, @06:18PM
Hey, it gives people jobs to clean it up.
(Score: 5, Funny) by DannyB on Tuesday January 25 2022, @02:51PM (3 children)
This booster stage, smashing into the far side of the moon, will cause the moon to crash into the Earth. I read it online, so it must be true!
This will cause a huge dent in the flat disk of the Earth.
Despite furious googling, I have not yet discovered the missing connection between this and 5G.
And idiots will uncritically believe anything they read online!
And if it agrees with their narrative, it must be true!
And only an idiot would begin or end a sentence with the word and.
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.
(Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 25 2022, @06:21PM
Googling won't help because this is something that everyone just knows: 5G will mess with the moon's guidance system and cause it to crash into earth. Sheesh.
(Score: 2) by maxwell demon on Wednesday January 26 2022, @11:33AM (1 child)
And?
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Wednesday January 26 2022, @02:54PM
And then. And then. And then. And then. And then.
(obscure reference to movie "Dude Where's My Car")
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.
(Score: 2) by Gaaark on Tuesday January 25 2022, @03:13PM (3 children)
...^this is why the man in the moon can't have anything nice.
--- Please remind me if I haven't been civil to you: I'm channeling MDC. ---Gaaark 2.0 ---
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Tuesday January 25 2022, @05:03PM (2 children)
If we can't see it, then it didn't happen. This impact will happen on the moon's backside, not on the face towards Earth.
If you are talking with someone, there should be no visible change to their face if something hits their back side.
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 25 2022, @05:57PM
I don't know . . . with some people it can be hard to tell which is their face and which is their backside, at least if you go by where they seem to be speaking from.
(Score: 4, Funny) by Gaaark on Tuesday January 25 2022, @09:13PM
Last time my wife spanked my backside, i showed her my "O" face! :)
--- Please remind me if I haven't been civil to you: I'm channeling MDC. ---Gaaark 2.0 ---
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 25 2022, @03:56PM (4 children)
It's going to crash on the far side of the moon we will never see it anyway. It's like storing your junk in the backyard where nobody can see it from the street. An aesthetic win!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 25 2022, @04:42PM (3 children)
There are telescopes in orbit around the moon that will see it if they know exactly where and when to look. As it says in the summary, Gray needs more Earth-based observations of the stage before that so he can give those telescopes an accurate prediction so they don't miss it.
(Score: 1, Redundant) by captain normal on Tuesday January 25 2022, @04:53PM (2 children)
"There are telescopes in orbit around the moon..."
Citation please
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts"- --Daniel Patrick Moynihan--
(Score: 3, Informative) by PinkyGigglebrain on Tuesday January 25 2022, @05:11PM
Telescope [wikipedia.org]
So the lens on any Lunar orbiter with a camera quality as a telescope, unless its a pin hole camera. So technically the OP is correct. It's just not what most people mentally picture when they hear the word "Telescope".
"Beware those who would deny you Knowledge, For in their hearts they dream themselves your Master."
(Score: 3, Informative) by FatPhil on Tuesday January 25 2022, @07:07PM
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 4, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 25 2022, @04:12PM
How prescient [wikipedia.org] they were in 1902!
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday January 26 2022, @02:12AM (1 child)
Musky incel space junk tumbling out of control in chaotic orbit, disrupting ground-based astronomy.
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday January 26 2022, @02:15AM
Get with the times, son. Elon's junk is going to help us win WW3 by rocketing tanks straight to the front. It'll be over in a few months, and the boys will be back in time for Christmas.