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posted by martyb on Wednesday October 18 2017, @03:06PM   Printer-friendly
from the down-to-earth-warning dept.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/oct/13/tiangong-1-chinese-space-station-will-crash-to-earth-within-months

An 8.5-tonne Chinese space station has accelerated its out-of-control descent towards Earth and is expected to crash to the surface within a few months.

The Tiangong-1 or "Heavenly Palace" lab was launched in 2011 and described as a "potent political symbol" of China, part of an ambitious scientific push to turn China into a space superpower. It was used for both manned and unmanned missions and visited by China's first female astronaut, Liu Yang, in 2012.

But in 2016, after months of speculation, Chinese officials confirmed they had lost control of the space station and it would crash to Earth in 2017 or 2018. China's space agency has since notified the UN that it expects Tiangong-1 to come down between October 2017 and April 2018.

[...] Although much of the craft is expected to burn up in the atmosphere, McDowell says some parts might still weigh up to 100kg when they crash into the Earth's surface.


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  • (Score: 5, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @03:24PM (9 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @03:24PM (#583975)

    Some criticize the ISS as being way too expensive, but this is what you get when you settle for that cheap Chinese knockoff stuff.

    • (Score: 3, Disagree) by c0lo on Wednesday October 18 2017, @03:49PM (7 children)

      by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 18 2017, @03:49PM (#583983) Journal

      but this is what you get when you settle for that cheap Chinese knockoff stuff.

      What? A first experimental space station that had a planned life of 2 years, and lasted as long as the first American space station [wikipedia.org]?

      --
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
      • (Score: 5, Touché) by technoid_ on Wednesday October 18 2017, @03:57PM (5 children)

        by technoid_ (6593) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @03:57PM (#583989)

        Considering the technology advances between 1973 and 2011, I don't find the comparison to really reflect that well on the Tiangong-1.

        So yeah, cheap Chinese knockoff stuff.

        • (Score: 4, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @04:18PM (1 child)

          by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @04:18PM (#583994)

          Well it did last longer, and technology advances for space hardware are not freely shared, so I can't endorse your silly Chinese knock-off theory. The US poached almost all the top minds back in the day, so again the comparison falls kinda flat.

          Sounds like simple bigotry to me.

          • (Score: 5, Informative) by c0lo on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:03PM

            by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:03PM (#584029) Journal

            so I can't endorse your silly Chinese knock-off theory.

            On the contrary, you can endorse the opposite, given the Chinese exclusion policy of NASA [wikipedia.org]

            None of the funds made available by this Act may be used for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) or the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to develop, design, plan, promulgate, implement, or execute a bilateral policy, program, order, or contract of any kind to participate, collaborate, or coordinate bilaterally in any way with China
                    — Public Law 112-55, SEC. 539

            The result? Increased cooperation between China, Russia and Europe.

            --
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
        • (Score: 5, Touché) by pe1rxq on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:28PM (2 children)

          by pe1rxq (844) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:28PM (#584018) Homepage

          In 1973 the US was capable of manned spaceflight.
          When Tiangong-1 launched in september 2011 the US had advanced to not being capable of launching a manned flight.........

          • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 19 2017, @12:03AM (1 child)

            by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 19 2017, @12:03AM (#584260)

            Because having humans in space is.... so kewl? Sorry remind me why we spend $1B per ounce of human material per day to have them gaze at us from a capsule that if they ever leave they'll die in less than a second?

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 19 2017, @01:34AM

              by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 19 2017, @01:34AM (#584319)

              Because we're stuck on a rock, and if we don't leave, we die (eventually).

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @04:20PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @04:20PM (#583995)

        You mean the PLANNED for an uncontrolled re-entry???

    • (Score: 2) by hemocyanin on Thursday October 19 2017, @12:33AM

      by hemocyanin (186) on Thursday October 19 2017, @12:33AM (#584284) Journal

      +1 Insightfunny

  • (Score: 2) by goodie on Wednesday October 18 2017, @04:32PM (17 children)

    by goodie (1877) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @04:32PM (#583999) Journal

    Would they ever think of some sort of autodestruct button or it's too dangerous to send a payload to space with this? I mean just for these types of cases basically. That or Trump could negotiate a deal with China to try the US interception program on a real, uncontrolled target since controlled trials have so far been yielding mixed results. You know, just to show NK how well prepared they are ;-)

    • (Score: 2, Insightful) by nitehawk214 on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:23PM (5 children)

      by nitehawk214 (1304) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:23PM (#584015)

      So lets turn a dangerous falling object into several dangerous falling objects?

      --
      "Don't you ever miss the days when you used to be nostalgic?" -Loiosh
      • (Score: 4, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:51PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:51PM (#584024)

        So lets turn a dangerous falling object into several dangerous falling objects?

        Kind of, but with corporate sponsorship.

      • (Score: 3, Insightful) by bob_super on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:27PM (2 children)

        by bob_super (1357) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:27PM (#584040)

        If you hit it just before it re-enters, breaking it into smaller pieces will help them burn, and reduce the chance one of them hits you.
        Intercepting at about 100 km, new debris generated should not stay up very long. Bad luck could cause a shard or twenty to rise back up to LEO, I don't know the odds, but they've gotta be pretty small.

        It would be a good test of missile defense, therefore it won't happen, the same way that we don't try to intercept NK's missiles, just in case we look foolish by missing.

        Final decisions will depend on where this thing looks likely to impact. 70% of the area is deemed safe, and many dry places are don't cares.
        Knowing my luck, I should delay my roof repairs for a little while.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 19 2017, @01:17PM

          by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 19 2017, @01:17PM (#584525)

          Simple solution. Do the test covertly. If it fails, don't tell anyone about it.

        • (Score: 2) by urza9814 on Friday October 20 2017, @01:31PM

          by urza9814 (3954) on Friday October 20 2017, @01:31PM (#585214) Journal

          There's also the liability issue.. that's always a strong force in this country. If a 100kg chunk of space station hits a populated area, that's not gonna be good, but we can just blame the Chinese. If we blow it into 10kg chunks and one of those hits a populated area, that's better, but still probably not great, and now the damage gets blamed on us because we altered the trajectory when we blew the thing up.

      • (Score: 4, Insightful) by frojack on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:59PM

        by frojack (1554) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:59PM (#584053) Journal

        So lets turn a dangerous falling object into several dangerous falling objects?

        Yup, that's the plan. Make most of it burn up in the re-entry rather than having huge chunks landing in un-predictable places. That, and managing the fuel and orbit such that you can use remaining thrusters in order to dump falling stuff into the ocean. Its done this way already.

        Just yesterday a Russian booster was dumped into the Indian ocean. [gulftoday.ae] People were already speculating it could be Tiangong-1 until the adults stepped in.

        I know you meant it derisively, but that is indeed what the US and Russia endeavor to do with equipment that is going to be coming down anyway. Planning for this starts with design of boosters, and the reserve gas for thrusters on board, and continues right into orbit decay.

        --
        No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:35PM (2 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:35PM (#584020)

      Since you mentioned NK... What's going to stop idiots (NK) from nuking something like Tiangong-1 in orbit effectively daisy-chaining destruction of everything else in orbit? It'd be the end of space exploration and any gps/weather sat info.

      • (Score: 5, Insightful) by c0lo on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:28PM (1 child)

        by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:28PM (#584041) Journal

        What's going to stop idiots (NK) from nuking something like Tiangong-1 in orbit effectively daisy-chaining destruction of everything else in orbit?

        Hitting a target of hundreds of square kilometres (anywhere withing radius of 15-20km around the centre of a large city is just good enough for a NK hydrogen bomb) and hitting one only tens of square metres as cross section (as the almost empty tube Tiangong-1 is) are two very different kind of things in terms of precision.

        Supplementary, a nuclear explosion in vacuum [nasa.gov] will release the energy mainly as hard radiation, as opposed to pressure wave and thermal radiation in atmospheric condition. Well, yeah, unless you explode the nuke very close to your space target, you'll get some tin sheets exposed to gamma radiation - won't break them apart.

        And last, if "the Kim" is indeed so idiot to attack a chinese spacecraft (even if a junked one), he'll be dead the next day and NK will become a... mmm... Chinese protectorate, with some million-something chinese army stationed there and "defending the NK friendly people against any future idiots from inside or outside". It will be sanctioned by UN and approved... yes... in the interest of stability in the region.

        --
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
        • (Score: 2) by c0lo on Wednesday October 18 2017, @07:23PM

          by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 18 2017, @07:23PM (#584069) Journal

          Ah, yes.
          Since the nuke explosion is supposed to take place in LEO (which is inside Earth radiation belts):
          - the radiation emitted towards Earth will produce ionization in the atmosphere
          - the alpha/beta radiation emitted upwards will be trapped by Earth magnetic field (gamma will escape in space)

          I assume the aurorae at both poles will be spectacular. Perhaps, if the epicentre happens to be over populated areas, some transformers in the electrical grid may fry but much less spectacularly than for a full nuke explosion at high altitude [wikipedia.org]

          --
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
    • (Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:58PM (2 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:58PM (#584028)

      The last thing you want in crowded orbital space is an explosion. The incredible amount of new debris created by that sort of thing is terrible for all of our other satellites. Deorbiting is, by far, the preferable way - even uncontrolled.

      • (Score: 2) by goodie on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:42PM (1 child)

        by goodie (1877) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:42PM (#584045) Journal

        True... I should have specified that perhaps there was a way to do it at hte right time. Which would then be very dangerous coming to think of it. Good thing I'm not in control of these kinds of decisions lol

        • (Score: 2) by JNCF on Wednesday October 18 2017, @07:00PM

          by JNCF (4317) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @07:00PM (#584054) Journal

          Eh, as long as the whole fireworks show was live-streamed I wouldn't mind putting you in charge of it.

    • (Score: 2) by c0lo on Wednesday October 18 2017, @07:29PM (1 child)

      by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 18 2017, @07:29PM (#584077) Journal

      Would they ever think of some sort of autodestruct button

      The autodestruct button would have to trigger something on the line of "start your attitude rockets and... come home, slow and steady... (at first)"
      Problem is, the same rockets are used for maintaining the orbit during the life-time of the station/satellite. Usually, at the de-orbiting moment, the fuel tanks are mostly empty.

      --
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @11:52PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @11:52PM (#584255)

        Salyut 1, Salyut 4, Salyut 6 and Salyut 7 were intentionally deorbited.

    • (Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @08:05PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @08:05PM (#584104)

      Would they ever think of some sort of autodestruct button

      It's already been thought of [youtube.com].

      • (Score: 2) by rylyeh on Wednesday October 18 2017, @09:34PM

        by rylyeh (6726) <{kadath} {at} {gmail.com}> on Wednesday October 18 2017, @09:34PM (#584141)

        Exactly!

        --
        "a vast crenulate shell wherein rode the grey and awful form of primal Nodens, Lord of the Great Abyss."
    • (Score: 3, Touché) by MostCynical on Wednesday October 18 2017, @10:51PM

      by MostCynical (2589) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @10:51PM (#584217) Journal

      What, by missing?

      --
      "I guess once you start doubting, there's no end to it." -Batou, Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex
  • (Score: 2) by crafoo on Thursday October 19 2017, @12:50AM (6 children)

    by crafoo (6639) on Thursday October 19 2017, @12:50AM (#584299)

    If you needed any more proof that China is still a second-class state...here it is.

    • (Score: 3, Touché) by takyon on Thursday October 19 2017, @01:49AM (5 children)

      by takyon (881) <{takyon} {at} {soylentnews.org}> on Thursday October 19 2017, @01:49AM (#584324) Journal
      --
      [SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
      • (Score: 1) by anubi on Thursday October 19 2017, @05:18AM (4 children)

        by anubi (2828) on Thursday October 19 2017, @05:18AM (#584377) Journal

        I see this as so wasteful. The Chinese spent a fortune getting this thing up there, and apparently it needs a boost to compensate for atmospheric drag, but no-one seems to be able to know/finance a rescue.

        It seems to me like throwing a car away because of a flat tire.

        This lack of co-operation amongst nations makes us all look like a planet of fools.

        --
        "Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]
        • (Score: 3, Informative) by takyon on Thursday October 19 2017, @05:45AM (3 children)

          by takyon (881) <{takyon} {at} {soylentnews.org}> on Thursday October 19 2017, @05:45AM (#584388) Journal

          Tiangong-1 was a small test station.

          Tiangong-1 was not designed nor planned to be a permanent orbital station; rather, it is intended as a test bed for key technologies that will be used in China's large modular space station, which is planned for launch in 2023.[11] Furthermore, modified versions of Tiangong-1, dubbed Tianzhou, will be used as robotic cargo spacecraft to resupply this station.

          TG-1 had a pressurized volume of 15 m3 (530 cu ft). Compare to the ISS: 931.57 m3 (32,898 cu ft). If the ISS is ever deorbited entirely, I'm sure a lot of people will be pissed off. So far, it is planned to operate until 2024, possibly 2028.

          Tiangong-3 was cancelled, its objectives having been fulfilled by Tiangong-2.

          Tiangong-2 is bigger than TG-1, but not by much. It's unclear whether they will burn it or use it as the basis for the "large orbital station" [wikipedia.org]. That's the big one, but it looks like they plan to burn that one [wikipedia.org] after 10 years. Careful with the Wikipedia articles, not all of them reflect the fact that Tiangong-3 has been cancelled.

          If we don't want stations to be deorbited and burnt, we should make sure to standardize modules so that they can be easily attached to each other, removed, etc. (imagine a future in which these modules are almost always reused as parts of patchwork station creations). We should look into new propulsion options such as VASIMR [wikipedia.org], EmDrive, or a Mach effect thruster [nextbigfuture.com] to try to raise the stations out of LEO or reduce the need for propellant resupply. Barring that, we find new ways to get lots of propellant to LEO, such as SpaceX's tanker [wikipedia.org] or ULA's Advanced Cryogenic Evolved Stage [soylentnews.org]. If we can move stations to the Moon, they can stay in orbit there nearly forever without needing extra propellant.

          --
          [SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
          • (Score: 2, Interesting) by anubi on Thursday October 19 2017, @06:13AM (2 children)

            by anubi (2828) on Thursday October 19 2017, @06:13AM (#584394) Journal

            Thanks.

            Admittedly, I was ignorant of the purpose of the station.

            I remember MIR and SkyLab coming down. Seemed like such a shame after all the effort we expended getting all that stuff up there.

            Maybe by more modern standards, its a shack, but it is up there, even if delegated for use as a warehouse.

            Wish I had a good modpoint for you.

            --
            "Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]
            • (Score: 2) by takyon on Thursday October 19 2017, @06:24AM (1 child)

              by takyon (881) <{takyon} {at} {soylentnews.org}> on Thursday October 19 2017, @06:24AM (#584397) Journal

              10 a day wasn't enough after 6 hours? Lol.

              --
              [SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
              • (Score: 1) by anubi on Thursday October 19 2017, @07:57AM

                by anubi (2828) on Thursday October 19 2017, @07:57AM (#584414) Journal

                Yup, I did... I read some good stuff today and went through them pretty fast.

                There are a lot of very good people here that take the time to post quite good stuff, as you just did.

                Stuff I can't get anywhere else. You know exactly what I mean. Too much stuff is written by "social influencers". Some are good enough to fool me for a while. Most of the folks posting here don't have a dog in the fight and will be much more objective.

                Anyway, it seemed such a waste to me to send manufactured stuff into orbit, only to let it come back down. To me, its like a small cabin in the woods, but in space, there isn't much else around. Looks like a neat place to stash stuff for later use, or nudge it to other space construction and use it as a "tool shed" or whatever. Its already out of Earth's gravity well. And we burned a helluva lotta fuel to get it up there.

                --
                "Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]
  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 19 2017, @01:57AM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 19 2017, @01:57AM (#584326)

    Meet Georgia Lass (who prefers to be called George). She is a young Seattle college dropout who is unhappy with life. She is always at odds with her mom, Joy. One day coming back from her temp job as a filing clerk, she is hit by the toilet seat of the re-entering Space Station Mir. Finding out she is now dead, she is recruited to become a grim reaper. ...

          http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0348913/ [imdb.com]

    I enjoyed this show while it lasted.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 19 2017, @12:24PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 19 2017, @12:24PM (#584498)

    [quote] it expects Tiangong-1 to come down between October 2017 and April 2018.[/quote]

    Why can't they make more accurate predictions? What's causing that amount of variation in the prediction?

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