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posted by martyb on Tuesday October 09 2018, @06:26PM   Printer-friendly
from the hot-stuff dept.

It's the final call, say scientists, the most extensive warning yet on the risks of rising global temperatures.

Their dramatic report on keeping that rise under 1.5 degrees C says the world is now completely off track, heading instead towards 3C.

Keeping to the preferred target of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels will mean "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society".

[...] After three years of research and a week of haggling between scientists and government officials at a meeting in South Korea, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued a special report on the impact of global warming of 1.5C.

The critical 33-page Summary for Policymakers certainly bears the hallmarks of difficult negotiations between climate researchers determined to stick to what their studies have shown and political representatives more concerned with economies and living standards.

Despite the inevitable compromises, there are some key messages that come through loud and clear.

"The first is that limiting warming to 1.5C brings a lot of benefits compared with limiting it to two degrees. It really reduces the impacts of climate change in very important ways," said Prof Jim Skea, who co-chairs the IPCC.

"The second is the unprecedented nature of the changes that are required if we are to limit warming to 1.5C - changes to energy systems, changes to the way we manage land, changes to the way we move around with transportation."

"Scientists might want to write in capital letters, 'ACT NOW, IDIOTS,' but they need to say that with facts and numbers," said Kaisa Kosonen, of Greenpeace, who was an observer at the negotiations. "And they have."

The researchers have used these facts and numbers to paint a picture of the world with a dangerous fever, caused by humans. We used to think if we could keep warming below two degrees this century, then the changes we would experience would be manageable.

Not any more. This new study says that going past 1.5C is dicing with the planet's liveability. And the 1.5C temperature "guard rail" could be exceeded in just 12 years, in 2030.

We can stay below it - but it will require urgent, large-scale changes from governments and individuals and we will have to invest a massive pile of cash every year, about 2.5% of global gross domestic product (GDP), the value of all goods and services produced, for two decades.

-- submitted from IRC


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  • (Score: 1, Redundant) by khallow on Wednesday October 10 2018, @04:29AM (1 child)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 10 2018, @04:29AM (#746810) Journal

    Seriously, you hold up one random student's supposed audit of data (from some blog that doesn't even say what kind of PhD the student is working towards) and claim that that is enough to invalidate the work of hundreds of scientists from all over the world?

    What exactly is the problem here? Let's read the complaint rather than issue yet another argument from authority.

    Main points:

    • The Hadley data is one of the most cited, most important databases for climate modeling, and thus for policies involving billions of dollars.
    • McLean found freakishly improbable data, and systematic adjustment errors , large gaps where there is no data, location errors, Fahrenheit temperatures reported as Celsius, and spelling errors.
    • Almost no quality control checks have been done: outliers that are obvious mistakes have not been corrected – one town in Columbia spent three months in 1978 at an average daily temperature of over 80 degrees C. One town in Romania stepped out from summer in 1953 straight into a month of Spring at minus 46°C. These are supposedly “average” temperatures for a full month at a time. St Kitts, a Caribbean island, was recorded at 0°C for a whole month, and twice!
    • Temperatures for the entire Southern Hemisphere in 1850 and for the next three years are calculated from just one site in Indonesia and some random ships.
    • Sea surface temperatures represent 70% of the Earth’s surface, but some measurements come from ships which are logged at locations 100km inland. Others are in harbors which are hardly representative of the open ocean.
    • When a thermometer is relocated to a new site, the adjustment assumes that the old site was always built up and “heated” by concrete and buildings. In reality, the artificial warming probably crept in slowly. By correcting for buildings that likely didn’t exist in 1880, old records are artificially cooled. Adjustments for a few site changes can create a whole century of artificial warming trends.

    While some of that is just shoddy data collection, some of it is possible evidence for biases that would exaggerate warming since the beginning of the industrial era.

    Never mind that we are *already* seeing the results of climate change with multiple back to back record temperatures, increasing # of storms and increased storm intensity. But no, like a typical right-wing denier you desperately cling to every lie you can get your hands around because you, to quote, can't handle the truth.

    And? It's not that much to go on since none of those observations, such as they are, tell us how fast warming is occurring.

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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 10 2018, @12:41PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 10 2018, @12:41PM (#746923)

    You remind me of someone that argued how seat belts are idiotic and cause deaths because you will not be able to escape a burning wreck as you get tangled up in them.... I've heard that over and over and why that person never wears seat belt.

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-126.18,21.63,592/loc=139.301,8.652 [nullschool.net]

    See the "data"? Seems it's kind of warm out there?? I see a lot more red than blue. Yeah, magic data page.... who would have thought!