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Bitcoin just ended its worst-performing month in seven years in terms of month-over-month price declines. While this is comparing rate of fall and not absolute values, the world of economics is run on rate.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency began November at an average price across exchanges of $6,341, but as of 0:00 UTC on December 1 is trading at just $3,964, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index.
As it stands, the near $2,400 drop in bitcoin’s price has created a -37.4 percent monthly performance, which is its worst on record since August 2011, when it fell from roughly $8 to $4.80 to print a -40 percent monthly loss.
This may have some good impact for PC gamers:
Bitcoin miners hit hard by the cryptocurrency’s crash may be throwing in the towel.
The Bitcoin network’s hash rate, one way of gauging the computing power dedicated to mining the digital currency, dropped about 24 percent from an all-time high at the end of August through Nov. 24, according to Blockchain.com. While the decline may have partially resulted from miners switching to other cryptocurrencies, JPMorgan Chase & Co. says some in the industry are losing money after Bitcoin’s price tumbled.
A big miner shakeout could be bad news for chipmakers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Nvidia Corp. who supply the industry, along with mining-rig designers like Bitmain Technologies Ltd. that are pursuing initial public offerings.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday December 03 2018, @04:31AM (12 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 03 2018, @04:52AM (11 children)
Well, I didnt see those values in your link but its probably some sort of average. Id use this:
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2010-01-01zeg2012-12-03ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv [bitcoincharts.com]
(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday December 03 2018, @04:32PM (10 children)
You can see it by looking at graphs over the year before January 2018, in the run up to the peak in December 2017 with price listed as a log scale rather than linear scale. Exponential changes then become linear changes. And superexponential growth is then a curve upwards (faster than linear growth). Each of the minor peaks leading up to the big one has a few weeks of superexponential surging as well.
Since that peak, the behavior of the market has completely changed with a significant and consistent exponential decay to present day. This is consistent with a bubble burst.
I think further superexponential surges are unlikely due to the strong capping of the cost of Bitcoin creation.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 03 2018, @05:54PM (6 children)
It isn't going to go from zero to infinity vs the USD in a straight line. Instead its a series of ever larger bubble-crash cycles. Each cycle picks up more and more people with new skills and experiences.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday December 03 2018, @06:16PM (5 children)
There hasn't been a bubble crash cycle since the last one popped last December. Before that, they usually lasted only a few weeks to few months for the full cycle. This "cycle" is a year old, far longer than any that came before. Behavior has fundamentally changed. On the plus side, the exponential decay is promising (though rate is large). A spurt of superexponential decay (that is, falling faster than exponential decay) would indicate very little support for Bitcoin at all, which happens with the end of the worst speculative bubbles.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 03 2018, @06:23PM (4 children)
The cycle ends with capitulation, we are close but I haven't really seen it yet. I think tether (and possibly bitfinex) goes down, then the SEC starts looking more favorably on an ETF and youll see it go to ~$130k.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday December 03 2018, @09:05PM (3 children)
Maybe. Or maybe it'll have dropped another factor of four by December of next year. We'll just have to see what happens.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 03 2018, @09:13PM (2 children)
Why not both? Ive had buys at ~$1k waiting to be filled from proceeds of selling at $10-20k. That would seem too good to be true, but I am mostly hoping for a flash crash to those levels which is a bit more likely.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday December 03 2018, @10:15PM (1 child)
Has that sort of reactive trading been an issue before? I didn't see anything like that on the candlestick graphs and I don't know the state of stop orders and such in Bitcoin markets. Sounds like a good bet to me.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 03 2018, @10:36PM
Last one was at $5k where (iirc) "china banned bitcoin", so it dropped nearly 40% in a couple days, thus triggering the bull run to $20k.
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60zig6-hourzczsg2017-09-05zeg2017-10-04ztgSzm1g10zm2g25 [bitcoincharts.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 03 2018, @07:03PM (2 children)
That chart was the record of trades of btc for usd at the mt gox exchange. That was the main exchange at the time. By variant do you mean the different exchanges?
(Score: 2, Informative) by khallow on Monday December 03 2018, @10:10PM (1 child)
That exchange vanished some time ago. At least my link showed Bitcoin from its birth to present. Having said that, my link does show a similar bubble burst to the present one in December 2013, which lasted almost two years till October, 2015. So I agree with whoever was claiming that this sort of behavior has happened before.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 03 2018, @10:41PM
Yes, mt gox is gone. But whatever data you are using must be utilizing the mt. gox data from that era, because that is where 90% of the trades took place.