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posted by janrinok on Thursday January 09 2020, @10:51AM   Printer-friendly
from the we-are-their-biggest-threat dept.

Animal life thriving around Fukushima: Researchers document more than 20 species in nuclear accident zone:

The camera study, published in the Journal of Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, reports that over 267,000 wildlife photos recorded more than 20 species, including wild boar, Japanese hare, macaques, pheasant, fox and the raccoon dog -- a relative of the fox -- in various areas of the landscape.

UGA wildlife biologist James Beasley said speculation and questions have come from both the scientific community and the general public about the status of wildlife years after a nuclear accident like those in Chernobyl and Fukushima.

This recent study, in addition to the team's research in Chernobyl, provides answers to the questions.

"Our results represent the first evidence that numerous species of wildlife are now abundant throughout the Fukushima Evacuation Zone, despite the presence of radiological contamination," said Beasley, associate professor at the Savannah River Ecology Laboratory and the Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources.

Species that are often in conflict with humans, particularly wild boar, were predominantly captured on camera in human-evacuated areas or zones, according to Beasley.

"This suggests these species have increased in abundance following the evacuation of people."

The team, which included Thomas Hinton, professor at the Institute of Environmental Radioactivity at Fukushima University, identified three zones for the research.

Photographic data was gathered from 106 camera sites from three zones: humans excluded due to the highest level of contamination; humans restricted due to an intermediate level of contamination; and humans inhabited, an area where people have been allowed to remain due to "background" or very low levels of radiation found in the environment.

The researchers based their designations on zones previously established by the Japanese government after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident.

For 120 days, cameras captured over 46,000 images of wild boar. Over 26,000 of those images were taken in the uninhabited area, compared to approximately 13,000 in the restricted and 7,000 in the inhabited zones.

Other species seen in higher numbers in the uninhabited or restricted zones included raccoons, Japanese marten and Japanese macaque or monkeys.

Anticipating questions about physiological condition of the wildlife, Hinton said their results are not an assessment of an animal's health.

"This research makes an important contribution because it examines radiological impacts to populations of wildlife, whereas most previous studies have looked for effects to individual animals," said Hinton.

The uninhabited zone served as the control zone for the research.


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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @10:58AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @10:58AM (#941374)

    "We have the toy range planned" - TEPCO

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @11:08AM (5 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @11:08AM (#941377)

    "This suggests these species have increased in abundance following the evacuation of people."

    It's been long speculated that the only way to save the Amazon forest, one would have to spread nuclear waste over it. Anything short of that, we will burn down and make a parking lot. Progress and all that.

    Fukushima is another prime example of this very thing.

    And the Greens still against nuclear power??

    • (Score: 2, Troll) by c0lo on Thursday January 09 2020, @11:23AM (2 children)

      by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Thursday January 09 2020, @11:23AM (#941380) Journal

      And the Greens still against nuclear power??

      Here's an idea to convince the Greens: spread nuclear waste over Washington DC.
      Better still, kindly ask Kim the service to detonate a tacnuke over Capitol when both chambers are in session. (grin)

      --
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @12:36PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @12:36PM (#941389)

        That is all.

      • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday January 09 2020, @01:24PM

        by Phoenix666 (552) on Thursday January 09 2020, @01:24PM (#941399) Journal

        It's an idea to convince everyone outside the Beltway, not just Greens. In fact, if somebody did that he'd never have to pay for his own beers again.

        --
        Washington DC delenda est.
    • (Score: 3, Interesting) by PiMuNu on Thursday January 09 2020, @11:32AM (1 child)

      by PiMuNu (3823) on Thursday January 09 2020, @11:32AM (#941381)

      ...unless locals realise that "nuclear waste" is pretty harmless at the levels present around e.g. Fukushima

      https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/fukushima-radiation-exposure.aspx [world-nuclear.org]

      France's Institute for Radiological Protection & Nuclear Safety (IRSN) estimated that maximum external doses to people living
      around the plant were unlikely to exceed 30 mSv/yr in the first year. This was based on airborne measurements between
      30 March and 4 April, and appears to be confirmed by the above figures. It compares with natural background levels mostly
      2-3 mSv/yr, but ranging up to 50 mSv/yr elsewhere in the world.

      and also

      The stresses of personal involvement in the evacuation, management and clean-up emerged as the biggest factors in ill
      health for the people affected. Transfer trauma - the mental or physical burden of the forced move from their homes was
      the cause of 34 early deaths, almost all elderly, reported then.

      (i.e. the process of evacuating people killed far more people than the actual radiation)

      One should also investigate whether the release of chemical pollutants following the earthquake tsunami has caused
      any significant adverse effects on local wildlife. My guess is that far greater harm was caused by chemical pollutants
      than radioactive pollutants.

      • (Score: 3, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Thursday January 09 2020, @09:51PM

        by JoeMerchant (3937) on Thursday January 09 2020, @09:51PM (#941621)

        far greater harm was caused by chemical pollutants than radioactive pollutants

        Tangentially - worked with a company trying to source mass quantities of Co60, talking with the breeder reactor dudes - one offhand comment they made was: "Radiation, that's easy... the hard part are the chemicals used in the Uranium refinement process - those are harder to contain, more directly lethal, and require much more advanced materials and handling technology than any radioactive problems."

        And... around Fukushima, think about the tons and tons of biohazards, just starting with fossil fuels, lead in batteries, pesticides, etc. that would have been released and spread around by the tsunami. Radioactivity is super simple to test for; organophosphates? Much harder.

        --
        🌻🌻 [google.com]
  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @01:13PM (5 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @01:13PM (#941397)

    They need to compare to a species with working l-gulonolactone oxidase, humans and monkeys can't eat shit while dogs can. So how about any primate species?

    • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday January 09 2020, @01:25PM (4 children)

      by Phoenix666 (552) on Thursday January 09 2020, @01:25PM (#941400) Journal

      The article I read showed snow monkeys in the evacuation zone, too.

      --
      Washington DC delenda est.
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @01:35PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @01:35PM (#941404)

        I got an error when I clicked it. How are the monkeys doing?

      • (Score: 3, Funny) by FatPhil on Friday January 10 2020, @01:47AM (2 children)

        by FatPhil (863) <pc-soylentNO@SPAMasdf.fi> on Friday January 10 2020, @01:47AM (#941735) Homepage
        Those weren't monkeys, they were humans who'd gone ferral.
        --
        Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
        • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Friday January 10 2020, @11:55AM (1 child)

          by Phoenix666 (552) on Friday January 10 2020, @11:55AM (#941832) Journal

          Jesus, FatPhil, do you know how long it's taken us to coax those hikikomori out of their rooms? And here you go, blowing their cover!

          Poor show, Old Man, poor show!

          --
          Washington DC delenda est.
          • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Friday January 10 2020, @11:31PM

            by FatPhil (863) <pc-soylentNO@SPAMasdf.fi> on Friday January 10 2020, @11:31PM (#942079) Homepage
            They'll be standing for parliament next, it's only right and proper that people know who they really are.
            --
            Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
  • (Score: 2) by Nuke on Thursday January 09 2020, @01:31PM (34 children)

    by Nuke (3162) on Thursday January 09 2020, @01:31PM (#941402)

    From what I have read about Fukushima, the doses to the public were and remain trivial. I have worked in the nuclear industry and received more. Some power station workers received non-trivial doses that (from what I have read) were still within the limits assumed to be hazardous, limits which themselves are very pessimistic. I know there has been a claim of one recent worker death from radiation, but in reality it is not possible to know the cause of death in such a statistical outlier - people die of cancer all the time.

    What was also trivial was the media's response to 18,000 people being killed directly by the tsunami, and hundreds caused by unnecessary evacuation. instead they reacted non-trivially to a few workers getting a bootful of radioactive water (figuratively speaking).

    The bottom line here is that the dominant threat to wildlife, and the environment generally, is human over-population. Most people won't face that fact.

    Wildlife thrives around Chernobyl too.

    • (Score: 3, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Thursday January 09 2020, @09:53PM (33 children)

      by JoeMerchant (3937) on Thursday January 09 2020, @09:53PM (#941622)

      Wild is, by definition, the absence of people. If we want to have any wildlife left in another 100 years, we're going to need more exclusion zones than just the nuclear accident sites.

      https://5050by2150.wordpress.com/ [wordpress.com]

      --
      🌻🌻 [google.com]
      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday January 10 2020, @01:23PM (32 children)

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday January 10 2020, @01:23PM (#941851) Journal

        If we want to have any wildlife left in another 100 years, we're going to need more exclusion zones than just the nuclear accident sites.

        We already have them and are making more. For example, here's a Wikipedia list [wikipedia.org] of of the largest protected areas in the world. They already cover well over than 5% of the Earth's total surface (more than 10 million square kilometers).

        Meanwhile the two exclusion zones you mention are somewhere over 1000 square kilometers. We would need somewhere in the neighbor of 10,000 Chernobyls, all on non-overlapping land to get a comparable level of land.

        • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Friday January 10 2020, @03:03PM (31 children)

          by JoeMerchant (3937) on Friday January 10 2020, @03:03PM (#941887)

          They already cover well over than 5% of the Earth's total surface

          They do, although "protected" has wildly varying degrees of meaning - much like the US "National Forests" where the trees are periodically given away to industry some of these marine protected areas are name only with zero enforcement.

          Also, your list is marine only. While there are a few true protected areas on land that aren't nuclear accident sites, they still mostly comprise land that people want the least - much like the Indian reservations granted by the US government.

          --
          🌻🌻 [google.com]
          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday January 11 2020, @06:15AM (30 children)

            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Saturday January 11 2020, @06:15AM (#942174) Journal
            Still remains that there's a lot more protected - in the real sense - park out there than you're going to get from meltdowns.
            • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Saturday January 11 2020, @07:21PM (29 children)

              by JoeMerchant (3937) on Saturday January 11 2020, @07:21PM (#942285)

              there's a lot more protected - in the real sense - park out there than you're going to get from meltdowns.

              True - unless a coordinated attack manages to melt 'em all down.

              Also true, there's nowhere near enough protected land - in the real sense - to allow anything resembling the natural world of 500-1500AD to continue into the future. The species we're displacing first are the ones we evolved with, sending them to extinction first would seem to be the opposite of a good idea.

              --
              🌻🌻 [google.com]
              • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday January 12 2020, @06:16AM (8 children)

                by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday January 12 2020, @06:16AM (#942435) Journal

                True - unless a coordinated attack manages to melt 'em all down.

                Maybe by aliens who want our water and women? These stories just write themselves.

                Also true, there's nowhere near enough protected land - in the real sense - to allow anything resembling the natural world of 500-1500AD to continue into the future.

                Still doesn't mean that it can't be enough to protect most of the organisms you care about.

                The species we're displacing first are the ones we evolved with, sending them to extinction first would seem to be the opposite of a good idea.

                Like dogs, rats, and cats?

                • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Sunday January 12 2020, @02:11PM (7 children)

                  by JoeMerchant (3937) on Sunday January 12 2020, @02:11PM (#942497)

                  most of the organisms you care about.

                  The height of hubris: assuming you know anything about what it takes to maintain a stable global ecosystem.

                  --
                  🌻🌻 [google.com]
                  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday January 12 2020, @04:19PM (6 children)

                    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday January 12 2020, @04:19PM (#942508) Journal

                    assuming you know anything about what it takes to maintain a stable global ecosystem.

                    You're sitting in the middle of a stable global ecosystem. You know something about it, even if you think you don't.

                    • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Monday January 13 2020, @04:01AM (5 children)

                      by JoeMerchant (3937) on Monday January 13 2020, @04:01AM (#942640)

                      stable

                      Most advanced scientists know enough to know that they don't know much compared to what there is to know.

                      What we do know, based on the fossil records, is that we are already in the 6th mass extinction event. If you call that stable, I'm voting against you in the next election.

                      --
                      🌻🌻 [google.com]
                      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday January 13 2020, @05:10AM (4 children)

                        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday January 13 2020, @05:10AM (#942649) Journal
                        You aren't an advanced scientist. You're just another Internet poster trolling with an argument from ignorance fallacy. It's interesting how much wriggling you're doing on this hook.
                        • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Monday January 13 2020, @02:01PM (3 children)

                          by JoeMerchant (3937) on Monday January 13 2020, @02:01PM (#942720)

                          It's interesting that you spend more time meta arguing than considering the topic.

                          The sixth mass extinction event isn't in the realm of advanced science - it's out there with things like heavy and light objects falling at the same speed in the earth's gravity.

                          As for our understanding of ecosystems: the advanced science understands a lot - not enough to really predict outcomes, but enough to typically forecast at least short term trends in local areas.

                          The thing that's truly lacking is the politics to enforce positive interventions based on science, as well as the meta problem of getting politics to acknowledge the best science over the most politically convenient science, that has been demonstrated millions of times the world over in just the last 50 years.

                          --
                          🌻🌻 [google.com]
                          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday January 13 2020, @04:59PM (2 children)

                            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday January 13 2020, @04:59PM (#942785) Journal
                            Most of that extinction event predates modern civilization (and probably doesn't meet the scale of the previous list of five). Further, one doesn't need some imaginary advanced science to understand that more protected land is better for those ecosystems.
                            • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Monday January 13 2020, @08:02PM (1 child)

                              by JoeMerchant (3937) on Monday January 13 2020, @08:02PM (#942844)

                              predates modern civilization

                              h. sapiens has been kicking ass since long before mass utilization of fossil fuels - the megafauna of everywhere but Africa (where they co-evolved) are just one example.

                              one doesn't need some imaginary advanced science to understand that more protected land is better for those ecosystems

                              No, one doesn't - it's actually a dead simple solution to what the captains of industry are telling our politicians to tell our scientists to tell us is such a complex, opaque problem.

                              https://www.half-earthproject.org/ [half-earthproject.org]

                              --
                              🌻🌻 [google.com]
                              • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday January 14 2020, @03:19AM

                                by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday January 14 2020, @03:19AM (#942966) Journal

                                it's actually a dead simple solution to what the captains of industry are telling our politicians to tell our scientists to tell us is such a complex, opaque problem.

                                Which captains of industry would that be? I'm really not getting why you're posting all this.

              • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday January 13 2020, @05:12AM (19 children)

                by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday January 13 2020, @05:12AM (#942651) Journal
                Also if there were ten thousand nuclear reactors out there, we would have solved a lot of the world's energy needs.
                • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Monday January 13 2020, @02:06PM (18 children)

                  by JoeMerchant (3937) on Monday January 13 2020, @02:06PM (#942723)

                  if there were ten thousand nuclear reactors out there, we would have solved a lot of the world's energy needs

                  On that point, I wholeheartedly agree. However, there are approximately 450 civilian nuke power plants out there, and the Chernobyl exclusion zone is approximately 1000 square miles. 450,000 square miles is only ~1% of the Earth's surface, but it's far more than is in truly effective nature preserves right now, particularly in non-wasteland areas.

                  The thing that makes Fukushima and Chernobyl unique is that humans actually respect the exclusion zones, they're not cheating and "just taking a little" from the land / wildlife.

                  --
                  🌻🌻 [google.com]
                  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday January 14 2020, @03:21AM

                    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday January 14 2020, @03:21AM (#942969) Journal

                    and the Chernobyl exclusion zone is approximately 1000 square miles

                    Hmmm, I thought it was smaller. Turned out I was confusing a radius of 30 km with a diameter of 30 km.

                  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday January 14 2020, @01:33PM (16 children)

                    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday January 14 2020, @01:33PM (#943077) Journal

                    but it's far more than is in truly effective nature preserves right now, particularly in non-wasteland areas.

                    I missed this weasel phrase. The protection can be really shitty and still be more than good enough. For example, in the US most BLM (Bureau of Land Management) land is sufficiently devoid of humans (despite being readily used for pastureland, mining, and timber) and sufficiently non-wasteland to count. Wild organisms need habitat and migration routes (if global warming turns out as dire as claimed). They don't need much else.

                    • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday January 14 2020, @02:33PM (15 children)

                      by JoeMerchant (3937) on Tuesday January 14 2020, @02:33PM (#943083)

                      The protection can be really shitty and still be more than good enough.

                      While some protection is better than none, Chernobyl and Fukushima clearly demonstrate that total protection is better than shitty protection.

                      Shitty protection still invites poachers of high value animals and predators which has repercussions throughout the ecosystem. Get rid of wolves and the aspen forests dwindle to grasslands...

                      --
                      🌻🌻 [google.com]
                      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday January 14 2020, @06:17PM (14 children)

                        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday January 14 2020, @06:17PM (#943168) Journal

                        While some protection is better than none, Chernobyl and Fukushima clearly demonstrate that total protection is better than shitty protection.

                        What "total protection" are they demonstrating? It's basically just a temporary pause on who uses a small spot of land - Chernobyl for almost 34 years and Fukushima for almost 9 years. That these short pauses result in a huge surge in animal life indicates that even shitty protection would show remarkable gains.

                        • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday January 14 2020, @08:04PM (13 children)

                          by JoeMerchant (3937) on Tuesday January 14 2020, @08:04PM (#943230)

                          It's basically just a temporary pause on who uses a small spot of land - Chernobyl for almost 34 years and Fukushima for almost 9 years

                          What they both showed is that a "temporary pause" of less than 10 years results in a huge surge of animal life, far beyond the "protected forests" of the world that have had that shittily enforced protected status for many decades.

                          --
                          🌻🌻 [google.com]
                          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday January 14 2020, @08:28PM (12 children)

                            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday January 14 2020, @08:28PM (#943242) Journal

                            far beyond the "protected forests" of the world that have had that shittily enforced protected status for many decades.

                            What gave you that impression? The story makes no such comparison.

                            • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday January 14 2020, @08:52PM (11 children)

                              by JoeMerchant (3937) on Tuesday January 14 2020, @08:52PM (#943255)

                              What gave you that impression? The story makes no such comparison.

                              You think I read TFA? Ha! No, actually I've read several other articles about Chernobyl and one or two about Fukushima that DO draw comparisons to similar areas. The closest approximate forest to Chernobyl is in Poland, and even it lacks the abundance of wildlife that showed up in Chernobyl after 5-10 years.

                              --
                              🌻🌻 [google.com]
                              • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday January 14 2020, @09:58PM (10 children)

                                by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday January 14 2020, @09:58PM (#943301) Journal

                                The closest approximate forest to Chernobyl is in Poland, and even it lacks the abundance of wildlife that showed up in Chernobyl after 5-10 years.

                                Meaning what? I found several conservation sites [wikipedia.org] in Ukraine which were much closer (and at least one [wikipedia.org] of them had comparable diversity). Why weren't these considered in your alleged research article?

                                Biodiversity is not the same everywhere and it depends on what's around (like rivers, microclimate variation, altitude variation, boundary of different ecosystems, prehistory, etc). Telling me that some forest in Poland allegedly has worse biodiversity means nothing to me. We have to consider a lot of confounding factors - something your "advanced" scientists would have to do as well.

                                • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday January 15 2020, @04:15PM (9 children)

                                  by JoeMerchant (3937) on Wednesday January 15 2020, @04:15PM (#943646)

                                  I found several conservation sites in Ukraine

                                  So, would that be an unbiased longitudinal survey of the available data, or just trolling Google for some links that back up your argument? I mean, if this is high school debate, then trolling Google is pretty much top form - congrats.

                                  Notable tidbit from your source [rada.gov.ua]: all of these laws were enacted at least 6 years after the Chernobyl event, interestingly about the same time the initial beneficial effects of the Chernobyl exclusion zone on wildlife were first published.

                                  --
                                  🌻🌻 [google.com]
                                  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday January 16 2020, @03:24AM (8 children)

                                    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday January 16 2020, @03:24AM (#943889) Journal
                                    Just trolling DuckDuckGo. I just need to be right. I don't need a superficial appearance of "advanced science".
                                    • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Thursday January 16 2020, @02:39PM (7 children)

                                      by JoeMerchant (3937) on Thursday January 16 2020, @02:39PM (#943981)

                                      I respect honesty. And, while I also respect the value of "super science," I recognize the extreme difficulty involved in verifying it. Just one example: we have researchers in Western Hawaii documenting all kinds of environmental measures there, but... who's verifying their results? Assuming they like their jobs and have a little bit of political savvy, do you think there's no bias in their investigations toward continued employment?

                                      IFF we can get truly independently verified results we can trust, those can be highly valuable accurate guides for policy, IFF policy is really being crafted for the long term good and not re-election next term.

                                      In my experience, somewhere between 51 and 70% of research I go to verify actually checks out, and something less than 50% of policy takes the long view - which is why, in reality, I think an arbitrary approach [wordpress.com] to preservation may actually be superior.

                                      --
                                      🌻🌻 [google.com]
                                      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday January 16 2020, @09:10PM (6 children)

                                        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday January 16 2020, @09:10PM (#944235) Journal
                                        The problem with any "arbitrary" approach is that the people who lose will always be more politically active than the people who don't lose. That's why public conservation has always done better with land that few people want. It's just a fact of life that wilderness will tend to be either low density of humans or very charismatic.

                                        My take is just put as much as possible of the low demand land and sea into some level of protection, then see if it's enough.

                                        As to the diversity of these abandoned nuclear sites, it's worth remembering that nuclear sites require both stability and cooling. This naturally results in locations that are more environmentally diverse, with solid ground, and river or shore in close proximity.

                                        Finally, I think this matter of large scale conservation is being solved. I don't think we'll reach 50% by 2100, but I do think we'll be well on our way to that target.
                                        • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Thursday January 16 2020, @10:02PM (5 children)

                                          by JoeMerchant (3937) on Thursday January 16 2020, @10:02PM (#944267)

                                          then see if it's enough.

                                          My take is: we're already pushing the carrying capacity of the environment - sure, we can support more people on less with smarter blah blah blah, realistically, the way we are today, 8B is screwing the environment, period.

                                          There will be population capping, whether "naturally", mandated, or by force of societal collapse.

                                          Why not work toward a population cap that doesn't max out the environment - odds are that a functioning ecosystem on 50% of the planet will support a larger overall population than what we'll get if we "fully utilize" 99% of it and screw the ecosystem in the process.

                                          the low demand land and sea

                                          So, treat the ecosystem the way the U.S. treated the natives... that didn't work out so well for the natives, overall. Sure, some are surviving, but...

                                          locations that are more environmentally diverse, with solid ground, and river or shore in close proximity.

                                          Aaaaand... those are fairly clearly more important to preserve than the low demand areas.

                                          I don't think we'll reach 50% by 2100, but I do think we'll be well on our way to that target.

                                          If, by well on the way, you mean like Trump will have his wall finished by 2020 - yeah, that's the kind of trajectory I see us on.

                                          --
                                          🌻🌻 [google.com]
                                          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday January 17 2020, @08:21AM (4 children)

                                            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday January 17 2020, @08:21AM (#944454) Journal

                                            Why not work toward a population cap that doesn't max out the environment

                                            Already done. We call it the developed world - just add greater wealth and women's liberation.

                                            locations that are more environmentally diverse, with solid ground, and river or shore in close proximity.

                                            Aaaaand... those are fairly clearly more important to preserve than the low demand areas.

                                            Only if a significant portion of that "8B" isn't living on it or depending for their food on it, and there's some way for that diversity to get to the area.

                                            • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Friday January 17 2020, @03:10PM (3 children)

                                              by JoeMerchant (3937) on Friday January 17 2020, @03:10PM (#944545)

                                              just add greater wealth and women's liberation

                                              Past performance is no guarantee of future returns...

                                              those are fairly clearly more important to preserve than the low demand areas.

                                              Only if a significant portion of that "8B" isn't living on it or depending for their food on it, and there's some way for that diversity to get to the area.

                                              So, preserve may be the wrong word, it matters less what's "virgin pre-human" or even what's there now - reserve is more like it. The areas around Chernobyl and Fukushima were as screwed as any other until they became exclusion zones. Ditto for marine reserves where they have actually enforced harvesting bans - geographic bans have proven time and again tremendously more effective than seasons, species specific protections, etc.

                                              --
                                              🌻🌻 [google.com]
                                              • (Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday January 18 2020, @04:04AM (2 children)

                                                by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Saturday January 18 2020, @04:04AM (#944867) Journal

                                                just add greater wealth and women's liberation

                                                Past performance is no guarantee of future returns...

                                                Keep in mind that phrase comes from the financial world where large short term gains are strongly correlated with weaker than average future gains. In the world, human fertility and many of the other problems you've mentioned are strongly negatively correlated with the wealth of society and empowerment of women. And there is not a country out there that doesn't show substantial declines in human fertility over the past half century. Not a one. Almost all countries similarly show increasing wealth with a few holdouts like North Korea, Cuba, or Venezuela.

                                                So sure, we can pretend that somehow future trends won't match the many decades of present day trends. But that's not what the smart money would do.

                                                Ditto for marine reserves where they have actually enforced harvesting bans - geographic bans have proven time and again tremendously more effective than seasons, species specific protections, etc.

                                                Whatever is done merely needs to be effective enough.

                                                • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Saturday January 18 2020, @04:46PM (1 child)

                                                  by JoeMerchant (3937) on Saturday January 18 2020, @04:46PM (#945000)

                                                  In the world, human fertility and many of the other problems you've mentioned are strongly negatively correlated with the wealth of society and empowerment of women.

                                                  In a sample of one 50 year epoch, sure. The next 50 years are as likely to resemble the previous 50 years as those 50 years resembled the 50 before them.

                                                  we can pretend that somehow future trends won't match the many decades of present day trends. But that's not what the smart money would do.

                                                  Or, we can pretend that future trends will match the past decades of present day trends - but it's still pretending. The stakes are far more important than money.

                                                  Whatever is done merely needs to be effective enough.

                                                  Which, taken on a global scale for lands deeemed "protected" is, on average, lacking / far short of effective enough.

                                                  --
                                                  🌻🌻 [google.com]
                                                  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday January 18 2020, @07:53PM

                                                    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Saturday January 18 2020, @07:53PM (#945059) Journal

                                                    In a sample of one 50 year epoch, sure. The next 50 years are as likely to resemble the previous 50 years as those 50 years resembled the 50 before them.

                                                    I guess you weren't paying attention to the previous epoch either.

  • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday January 09 2020, @01:40PM (12 children)

    by Phoenix666 (552) on Thursday January 09 2020, @01:40PM (#941406) Journal

    After the same thing happened in the Chernobyl exclusion zone (which we've discussed a number of times on Soylent), a different theory about pollution and the human effect on the environment has been growing. If our economic practices damage the environment as it is, life on Earth, with the exception of humans, will be fine and will adapt. Microbes have already been found that have figured out how to eat plastic, a man-made material that hasn't even been around for a century. We irradiate a swath of land, and the animals say woo-hoo and move into the instant nature preserve humans unwittingly created.

    So maybe the main reason to change our ways is not to "Save the Earth" or "Think of the Animals!" but rather, "Save Human Civilization as Currently Constituted."

    --
    Washington DC delenda est.
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @02:15PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @02:15PM (#941416)

      Then the primary goal should be preventing or planning for the next ice age.

      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday January 14 2020, @06:20PM

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday January 14 2020, @06:20PM (#943169) Journal
        I submit the northern hemisphere plan - move south, if there's a kilometer of ice. Please thank the internet for solving yet another weighty problem before lunch.
    • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Thursday January 09 2020, @03:15PM (6 children)

      by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Thursday January 09 2020, @03:15PM (#941434) Journal

      I wonder if PETA has considered the possibility of irradiating most of the planet?

      --
      When trying to solve a problem don't ask who suffers from the problem, ask who profits from the problem.
      • (Score: 2) by HiThere on Thursday January 09 2020, @04:54PM

        by HiThere (866) Subscriber Badge on Thursday January 09 2020, @04:54PM (#941494) Journal

        This only works while people stay out. All it proves is that people are more dangerous to wildlife than the levels of radiation around those areas. Not, e.g., that they don't develop cancer after awhile. But with a short enough life span, this may be less of a problem. A species that starts reproducing at two years of age may be a lot less damaged by radiation than are humans.

        That said, the radiation in the "exclusion zones" is, indeed, rather minimal. So the main effect is probably people staying away.

        --
        Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
      • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday January 09 2020, @09:41PM (4 children)

        by Phoenix666 (552) on Thursday January 09 2020, @09:41PM (#941614) Journal

        Maybe PETA and others worried about overpopulation could participate in Carrousel. Or maybe they could volunteer for cryo-freezing in Antarctica, to be thawed when the climate crisis has passed. Or they could report to our secret facility to be processed into information; we could call it "SoylentNews."

        --
        Washington DC delenda est.
        • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Thursday January 09 2020, @10:52PM (3 children)

          by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Thursday January 09 2020, @10:52PM (#941658) Journal

          Doesn't Carrousel keep the population equal?

          A PETA member reborn.

          --
          When trying to solve a problem don't ask who suffers from the problem, ask who profits from the problem.
          • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Friday January 10 2020, @01:55AM (2 children)

            by FatPhil (863) <pc-soylentNO@SPAMasdf.fi> on Friday January 10 2020, @01:55AM (#941737) Homepage
            So is carousel just like ZPG was? One in, one out.

            In my experience, NPG is more fun. So far.
            --
            Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
            • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Friday January 10 2020, @03:12PM (1 child)

              by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Friday January 10 2020, @03:12PM (#941890) Journal

              My assumption was that Carrousel was a reference to the 1976 movie Logan's Run.

              There should be a survey of PETA members to determine how many would volunteer to be ground up into animal feed.

              --
              When trying to solve a problem don't ask who suffers from the problem, ask who profits from the problem.
              • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Friday January 10 2020, @11:33PM

                by FatPhil (863) <pc-soylentNO@SPAMasdf.fi> on Friday January 10 2020, @11:33PM (#942081) Homepage
                It could be, it's honestly over 30 years since I saw it. Ditto the g/f. We might queue it up for a rewatch some time soon. Thanks for the nugget.
                --
                Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
    • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Thursday January 09 2020, @09:56PM (2 children)

      by JoeMerchant (3937) on Thursday January 09 2020, @09:56PM (#941623)

      life on Earth, with the exception of humans, will be fine and will adapt

      Rise like a Phoenix, eh?

      All depends on your concept of "fine" and acceptable timescales. Would be interesting to see what the next post-technological dominant species is. I suspect that some level of human habitation and technological know how will survive long into the future, if our successors learn how to copy our technology, then we're really screwed.

      --
      🌻🌻 [google.com]
      • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday January 09 2020, @10:37PM (1 child)

        by Phoenix666 (552) on Thursday January 09 2020, @10:37PM (#941651) Journal

        Well, we know that speciation occurs and can work rapidly to fill a void left by some catastrophe. If humans are no longer in the picture, does it really matter in the larger scheme of life if the species that speciates to fill those voids is the squirrel?

        We do know that human civilization can recover from setbacks, also. The Mongols swept Asia and into Europe, but those places recovered. The Dark Ages followed the collapse of the Roman Empire, but Europe recovered. Emo happened, but we recovered. We've also passed through the Dark Night of Hipster, and can see the dawn on the horizon. We have to live in hope, JoeMerchant, we have to live in hope.

        --
        Washington DC delenda est.
        • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Thursday January 09 2020, @11:50PM

          by JoeMerchant (3937) on Thursday January 09 2020, @11:50PM (#941682)

          Even worse than Emo, I believe an ice age is supposed to have dropped human population numbers to around 30,000 globally... at least based on some genetic analysis technique.

          If the squirrel evolves into the next globally dominant species, it will have to adapt to use tools and technology to keep future humans down - otherwise just a core group of a few hundred humans can "break out" like wildfire and take over again. Even I can take down a squirrel with a crappy crossbow pistol bolt. Unless they're zombie biting squirrels like the humans in a Will Smith movie...

          Now, killer deer with knife-sharp antlers, intelligence and attitude - that would be tough.

          --
          🌻🌻 [google.com]
  • (Score: 4, Informative) by Rich on Thursday January 09 2020, @03:20PM (2 children)

    by Rich (945) on Thursday January 09 2020, @03:20PM (#941439) Journal

    There's an up-to-date radiation map of Japan at https://jciv.iidj.net/map/ [iidj.net]

    Much of the exclusion zone has leveled off to about 3-4 times of the normal background. I'd expect wildlife to prosper there, maybe with a mildly higher mutation or cancer rate. According to Darwin, this should at worst lead to slightly accelerated evolution.

    However, there is a narrow plume of much higher radiation extending about 40km to the north-east of the meltdowns. In that area, all bets are off.

    Slightly related, I'd also like to see an animation of that map over time, to get an idea how much radiation is from the original accident, how the decay patterns look like (best with isotopes) or how much contamination was added later.

    • (Score: 2) by Rich on Thursday January 09 2020, @11:48PM

      by Rich (945) on Thursday January 09 2020, @11:48PM (#941680) Journal

      d'oh. it's north-WEST. sorry.

    • (Score: 2) by PiMuNu on Friday January 10 2020, @01:10PM

      by PiMuNu (3823) on Friday January 10 2020, @01:10PM (#941848)

      > a narrow plume of much higher radiation extending

      Just to be clear, even the narrow plume hour is still not terribly radioactive. About 10 times normal annual dose in US (including e.g. medical procedures/etc).

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @06:00PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 09 2020, @06:00PM (#941528)

    The great evil, nuclear power, in its worst case scenario; the nuclear accident. Yet instead of poisoning the land for eternity has made an eternal wildlife refuge. Meanwhile, these same environmental organizations are powerless to stop the 6th mass extinction.

  • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Thursday January 09 2020, @10:02PM (2 children)

    by JoeMerchant (3937) on Thursday January 09 2020, @10:02PM (#941627)

    When I was young, naive and impressionable, Greenpeace impressed me with a campaign to stop the waste incinerators on the South East Florida coast - seems that significant amounts of mercury were escaping the filter process and ending up in the everglades, concentrating up the food chain and killing the alligators and other predators prematurely. They fought, they won, the incinerators shut down, and within a few years the alligators started recovering. I donated something like $20 - and the fuckers wouldn't leave me along about BAN ALL NUKES, GIVE US MONEY, BAN ALL NUKES for the next 10 years.

    Get a clue rainbow weenies: your core anti-nuke pillar isn't pro-environment at all.

    --
    🌻🌻 [google.com]
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 10 2020, @04:22PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 10 2020, @04:22PM (#941932)

      i supppose if you're pro-human then nukes are bad.
      if you're anti-human, then nukes are good!

      one could also argue that people are evacuated from radiation zones because we don't want proof that it's bad.
      dying people tend to complain if subjected to premature death but i doubt that anything flourishing in fukushima exclusion zone will complain much ... not even a twitter.
      nature is cruel and efficient. if it is even half-assed possible to survive, then natures mantra is "game on!". one deer dead? nevermind, let's make more ... food is now more abundant.
      along these lines.

      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday January 12 2020, @06:34AM

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday January 12 2020, @06:34AM (#942441) Journal
        Sounds like your suppositions aren't worth shit. Sure, we could get all emo about this. Or we could recognize that the radiation levels in question just aren't that serious and are mostly responsible for keeping humans out rather than having any noticeable effect on the wildlife in the area.
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