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UC Berkely's ShakeAlert system gave them a 10 second warning before this morning's earthquake.
To predict the quakes, scientists use a sensor to detect the arrival of the first round of waves called primary waves or p-waves. These waves are fast but rarely cause any damage. P-waves are followed by secondary waves or s-waves which are slower but do more harm.
However, ShakeAlert doesn’t have enough backing to scale up, according to Richard Allen who directs the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory. It will cost $80 million over five years to test and deploy the system and another $12 million a year for operational costs.
Sounds like an interesting system, but one has to wonder. 10 seconds warning for an event that happens every 25 years? I'd spend those 10 seconds trying to figure out where the alarm was coming from. I'd also need to clock it, but I'll bet waking up at 3:30 AM, figuring out something was up, finding some pants, grabbing the cat, and heading outside will take me at least 11 seconds, probably more.
On the other hand, that $80 million + $12 mil/year sounds like money better spent than on the bullet train to nowhere our local politicians are so eager to build. Although the $12 mil/year sounds like somebody's research project is getting fully funded for a while....
(Score: 3, Interesting) by bob_super on Monday August 25 2014, @07:17PM
When the Big One hits at 7, 8 on the scale, the people affected will be in a much higher radius than that little 6.0.
The 10s turns into 20s or 30s, and lives do get saved. How many Japanese people saved by the tsunami warning?
I'd like my surgeon to have seconds to get his hands out, or at least that scalpel away. You can be sure big red lights will be installed into ORs five minutes after the tech becomes reliable enough for lawyers to smell cash...
(Score: 2) by frojack on Monday August 25 2014, @07:28PM
Please tell me you didn't just equate arrival times of a Tsunami with an Earthquake.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by bob_super on Monday August 25 2014, @07:48PM
I paralleled the ability to react before the damage is done.
You won't run up the hill before the earthquake, but 10 seconds to take the pot of hot oil off the burner might save your house.
I'm being unusually optimistic about people's abilities to act rationally under stress.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by Kunasou on Monday August 25 2014, @10:24PM
In my country we don't have many earthquakes but in Japan they use a 10 second system that works quite well:
Video example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuDonZJCiXQ [youtube.com] (They use another scale, Shindo)
Even though it can be expensive, that system can save lives.