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Sea level rise quickens as Greenland ice sheet sheds record amount:
Greenland's massive ice sheet saw a record net loss of 532 billion tonnes last year, raising red flags about accelerating sea level rise, according to new findings.
That is equivalent to an additional three million tonnes of water streaming into global oceans every day, or six Olympic pools every second.
Crumbling glaciers and torrents of melt-water slicing through Greenland's ice block—as thick as ten Eiffel Towers end-to-end—were the single biggest source of global sea level rise in 2019 and accounted for 40 percent of the total, researchers reported in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.
[...] "2019 and the four other record-loss years have all occurred in the last decade," lead author Ingo Sasgen, a glaciologist at the Helmholtze Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Germany, told AFP.
The ice sheet is now tracking the worst-case global warming scenario of the UN's climate science advisory panel, the IPCC, noted Andrew Shepherd, director of the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at the University of Leeds.
[...] Until 2000, Greenland's [runoff ...] was compensated by fresh snowfall.
[...] In 2019, the ice sheet lost a total of 1.13 trillion tonnes, about 45 percent from glaciers sliding into the sea, and 55 percent from melted ice, said Sasgen. It gained about 600 billion tonnes through precipitation.
A study in the same journal last week concluded that the Greenland's ice sheet has passed a "tipping point", and is now doomed to disintegrate, though on what time scale is unknown.
Journal References:
Ingo Sasgen, Bert Wouters, Alex S. Gardner, et al. Return to rapid ice loss in Greenland and record loss in 2019 detected by the GRACE-FO satellites [open], Communications Earth & Environment (DOI: 10.1038/s43247-020-0010-1)
Michalea D. King, Ian M. Howat, Salvatore G. Candela, et al. Dynamic ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet driven by sustained glacier retreat [open], Communications Earth & Environment (DOI: 10.1038/s43247-020-0001-2)
(Score: 2) by Snotnose on Saturday August 22 2020, @10:01PM (1 child)
Inquiring yet clueless minds want to know!
When the dust settled America realized it was saved by a porn star.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @01:50AM
Maybe the eiffel tower references is more practical. If they had ten really big anchors, then the ice wouldn’t fall into the sea, and we would all be saved.
Alternatively, this case is the very situation we need to be told how many football stadiums will be flooded.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 22 2020, @10:21PM (28 children)
All that whinging about hoax, not driven by industrial activity, or whatever stupid excuse he coyld make up to not feel bad about his oil stocks... god damn
Biden 2020 if we want to tap the brakes on armageddon.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 22 2020, @10:39PM (7 children)
Istorvet Ice Cap hasn't retreated this far since the Medieval Warm Period which was highly localized and doesn't allow us to infer anything about global temperature. Unlike now where the same ice melt tells us everything about global temperature. The science is settled, let's smash capitalism!
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 22 2020, @10:54PM (6 children)
Lololol
So now your arguments are down to "it isn't as bad as it was at one point" while ignoring the trends that show it will get much worse. Y'all are some true idiots and base your entire world view around identity politics. Which of course is why conservatives started whining about identity politics so they could gaslight everyone else while being the worst identity politics group around. Sadly your bullshit is contagious and is stopping humanity from making progress on saving lives and preventing disaster.
Such total assholes. "Muh capitalism" when no one said anything about taking it away, what clowns.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @02:08AM (5 children)
^ When you're looking to pick a fight with khallow but get triggered by another AC mocking you by referencing science. [harvard.edu]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @03:36AM (4 children)
Oh right, the climate change that was not influenced by massive human industrialization is a perfect comparison. Maybe you should put more effort into your education.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by khallow on Sunday August 23 2020, @04:39AM (3 children)
Doesn't have to be perfect to be adequate.
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @08:02PM (2 children)
But it is not. It is missing a massive influence present in today's atmosphere, but you knew that and are simply playing the typical rightwing Must Win game.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 23 2020, @10:28PM (1 child)
Something else provided a similar massive influence back then. As I noted, these comparisons don't break just because they aren't perfect.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 25 2020, @04:01AM
"Something else"
The brilliant logic of khallow, here highlighting the absolute void that sits between his ears.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by PinkyGigglebrain on Sunday August 23 2020, @12:26AM (18 children)
Ever been driving down a wet incline and tried to hit the brakes only to have your tires loos traction and become effectively useless?
Remember the gut churning terror you felt seeing the edge of the road come at you knowing you were about to go over it?
It is too late. Nothing is going to prevent Humanity going over the edge. Not Science, not Gods.
Biden, Trump, like they would really be able to make a difference now. The time for useful action was over 30 years ago.
All we can do is try to adapt to the rising waters and drying lands, and do what we can to prevent what lies beyond the edge from just being an empty drainage ditch and not a 100ft cliff
"Beware those who would deny you Knowledge, For in their hearts they dream themselves your Master."
(Score: 5, Insightful) by HiThere on Sunday August 23 2020, @12:59AM (5 children)
There are still degrees and degrees of damage. Damage control is, to an extent, still possible. Yes, we've already committed to 3 degrees of warming, but we don't need to try for 10 degrees + several meters of sea level rise.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 0, Disagree) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @02:32AM (3 children)
3 degrees? Wait for the micronova that turns the moon red, melting the surface to glass that happens every 15k years as found by the apollo missions. Then 18 hrs later the dust shell will hit the earth and chaos ensues.
3 degrees over a hundred years is hilarious to be concerned about.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @04:32AM (2 children)
Wow, found the conspuracy googler. Melting surface to glass every 15k years? Try thinking that through crazy buddy.
Sun activity is a worry, but so far it is not the cause.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @04:44AM (1 child)
Apollo 11 Observations of a Remarkable Glazing Phenomenon on the Lunar Surface.
T. Gold. Science. New Series, Vol. 165, No. 3900 (Sep. 26, 1969), pp. 1345-1349. 10.1126/science.165.3900.1345
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/165/3900/1345 [sciencemag.org]
Melted glass from a cosmic impact 12,900 years ago
Ted E. Bunch, et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Jul 2012, 109 (28) E1903-E1912; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1204453109
https://www.pnas.org/content/109/28/E1903 [pnas.org]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 24 2020, @04:00AM
An example of cherry picked facts applied out of context to something completely tangential. Then the obligatory conclusion drawn based on zero logic and applied in an attempt to discredit properly applied research and study.
This is basis of just about every conspiracy theory out there.
(Score: 2) by PinkyGigglebrain on Sunday August 23 2020, @04:52AM
Very true.
I did mention in my OP that there was still some hope.
3 degrees for the dry drainage ditch, easy to survive and climb out of unhurt, other than the year or so taken off one's life by the experience.
10+ degrees for the 100ft cliff, not going to be much left of the car, and the passengers will be in REALLY bad shape.
But it won't really matter who is PotUS either way. To even keep it at the 3 degree mark is going to take a MASSIVE commitment by all the worlds nations to take action to stop the green house gas emisions. Trump would just stay his course for another four years, being challenged left and right in court by various groups. Even if Biden went 100% on reducing fossil fuel usage to zero during his tenure in the White House, which he won't, he would be fighting up a cliff face. The entrenched interests would oppose his every effort, forcing the issue to a near complete stand still for as long as possible. Exactly as if Trump was in office another four years.
At the very least we are going into the drainage ditch, and I don't think it's going to be empty to be honest. Nothing we do now can stop the current melting of the ice caps.
The rich don't give a fuck about rising sea levels, they can afford to buy land anywhere they want. Even in a Water World scenario they already own, or can have built, custom yachts large enough to comfortably live on for the rest of their lives. Supplies? One small cargo freighter could hold all the fuel, fuel, food and water they and their entourage could ever use.
I will be voting for Biden. As much as I dislike him for many other reasons I hate Trump. So, for the first time in my voting life I will not be voting for who I think will be the best President but for whoever has the best chance of beating the incumbent.
"Beware those who would deny you Knowledge, For in their hearts they dream themselves your Master."
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @03:11AM (3 children)
If we're lucky, this "disaster" will happen quickly before all the New Yorkers and LA residents can escape. Sadly, I'm sure that won't happen and the slime will just spread out as the waters slowly rise.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @03:50AM (2 children)
Some people don't fit the political agenda you are trying to push.
Therefore, they should die! Oh gawwd Trump 2020! MAGA!!1!1
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @05:26PM (1 child)
It's Biden voters kicking people in the head, looting, burning, harassing, bullying, shitting in the streets and tearing down elk statues. We see what you are.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @08:42PM
Ah yes, the ones not murdering their neighbors, promoting constitutional violations, and supporting traitors to the United States. Not to mention beimg racist assholes causing division and strife because they can't let people they don't like live in leace.
(Score: 2) by darkfeline on Sunday August 23 2020, @07:11AM (5 children)
Actually, it would pretty easy to reverse the trend. Blow up half the countries in the world right now, especially some of the main polluters.
Now, reversing the trend without a cataclysm and massive loss of life? Yeah, that's a lot harder.
Join the SDF Public Access UNIX System today!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @12:37PM
we are still coming out the ice age it takes time
(Score: 2) by Dr Spin on Sunday August 23 2020, @03:01PM (3 children)
Blow up half the countries in the world right now, especially some of the main polluters.
Well a lot of people voted Trump - that is a start!
Warning: Opening your mouth may invalidate your brain!
(Score: 0, Troll) by hemocyanin on Sunday August 23 2020, @05:30PM (2 children)
It was Obama that took GWB's 2 wars to 7 -- Trump hasn't been perfect of course, Democrats goaded him into bombing Syria, but this isn't 1970 and Democrats are as far from the party as peace as possible. Makes sense though -- after enacting Nixon's health care plan and Republican free trade wet dreams, they might as well be warmongering assholes. They sure have no qualms using the power of government illegally in their attempts to take back the white house.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @08:04PM (1 child)
You've gone senile, better get re-tested for your driver's license.
(Score: 1) by hemocyanin on Monday August 24 2020, @06:14AM
2 wars to 7: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/peace-president-how-obama-came-to-bomb-seven-countries-in-six-years-9753131.html [independent.co.uk]
You're right about my criticism of "Nixon's HC plan" -- Nixon's was more liberal: https://www.livescience.com/51536-health-care-debates-political-opportunism.html [livescience.com]
Obamagate -- tip meet iceberg: https://thefederalist.com/2020/08/14/kevin-clinesmith-corrupt-fbi-attorney-who-falsified-carter-page-fisa-warrant-expected-to-plead-guilty/ [thefederalist.com] All Nixon did was a little robbery. This was using perjury to get a secret court -- secret courts are so fash -- to violate the 4A rights of an opposition candidate. That's fucking ugly coup level shit. If you're partisanship can't let you see that, then all that's left for you is to embrace neoliberal neoauthoritarianism, death squads like Obama ran, and enforced conformity of ideology. Dark shit.
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 23 2020, @02:29PM
Does not the one preclude the other? Rising waters usually wet land. Drying lands usually shed water.
We know what you're trying to say, but your composition is funny.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 1) by HammeredGlass on Sunday August 23 2020, @02:35PM
Some top Google engineers were tasked with finding that out years ago.
It is too late. Even if we went back to pre-industrial emission levels TODAY, it would still result in hundreds of years of climate disruption going forward.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/what-it-would-really-take-to-reverse-climate-change [ieee.org]
(Score: 2, Informative) by khallow on Sunday August 23 2020, @01:59AM
Never happened. [soylentnews.org] I've always expected some sea level rise from global warming due to human activity. From the story:
It's also tracking milder scenarios too. The real meat (and the real evidence for these environmental models) of the scenarios happens conveniently later. As to PinkyGigglebrain's concerns in their reply about losing control, well that happened way back when we grew a lot of people and had an industrial age. We're actually regaining control with lower fertility, greater wealth, and people who care about the environment.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Saturday August 22 2020, @10:45PM (8 children)
It's the new land of opportunity
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Sunday August 23 2020, @12:07AM (7 children)
Mar a Lago is very close to losing its land connections - Card Sound road already went under during King tides in the 1980s. The cost to raise the road to the resort would be epic, it's miles and miles through the middle of nothing.
What would be nice in the summary would be a simple metric: what was the previous sea level rise estimate in mm per decade or whatever, and what is the new rise estimate after this glacier breaking news?
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @12:23AM (3 children)
> The cost to raise the road to the resort would be epic,...
Shhhh. Don't tell Trump, he'll divert some more of the Pentagon budget and get the SeeBees to raise the road.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @12:24AM (1 child)
whoops, Seabees!
(Score: 3, Informative) by JoeMerchant on Sunday August 23 2020, @02:20AM
SeaBees did several projects in the Keys, back in the day... elevating miles and miles of road surface just to keep one pathetic golf club land-connected, that's almost as insane as a border wall with Mexico.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by Dr Spin on Sunday August 23 2020, @03:04PM
And get the dolphins to pay!
Warning: Opening your mouth may invalidate your brain!
(Score: 2) by PinkyGigglebrain on Sunday August 23 2020, @12:29AM
want to bet they won't release those new metrics until after they have purchased land above the new projected water line?
"Beware those who would deny you Knowledge, For in their hearts they dream themselves your Master."
(Score: 4, Funny) by SpockLogic on Sunday August 23 2020, @01:12AM (1 child)
The only good thing for Greenland is now Trump won't want it. Trump was confused when looking at Greenland on a globe then an atlas. After an aide explained the Mercator projection to him he said "Its a lot smaller than I thought, no deal"
Funnily enough that was the exact same sentiment that Stormy Daniels had made several years prior.
Overreacting is one thing, sticking your head up your ass hoping the problem goes away is another - edIII
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @02:44AM
Look up stations 53046, 56003, 56001.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Saturday August 22 2020, @11:51PM (5 children)
All those idiots building houses on artificial sand dunes in Florida and California will lose all their crappy cockroach hotels. Hopefully, the rats eat all the residents before either abandons ship.
(Score: 2) by PinkyGigglebrain on Sunday August 23 2020, @12:32AM
you forgot about the idiots in Dubai :)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palm_Islands [wikipedia.org]
"Beware those who would deny you Knowledge, For in their hearts they dream themselves your Master."
(Score: 2) by krishnoid on Sunday August 23 2020, @12:42AM
"Well, my forest burned down [ca.gov]. How about yours?"
'Mine too. Wanna go eat some people?"
"Sure! I hear they also have pretty good fruit in the valley, even in the big cities."
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @12:42AM (2 children)
Don't know what's going on in Florida, Florida being Florida and all, but there have not been much construction along the Californian coast.
For good reasons, too - houses and buildings that stood for decades are falling down into the sea due to soil erosion on the coast.
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Sunday August 23 2020, @01:02AM
Well, there was also the coastal commission saying that you shouldn't do that. (Of *course* they had had reasons, but people who tell you to wear masks and social distance also have reasons, and they just get ignored by lots of people.)
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Sunday August 23 2020, @01:05AM
It's a long time since I was in San Diego and Mission Beach. But, there were sand spits running north and south, with houses built on them. Maybe those have all been blown/washed away by now. It was the first time I ever saw dump trucks dumping sand into the ocean. I thought it was just California insanity, but a few years later I saw the same thing in Neptune Beach, FLa. Rich people with more dollars than sense had to piss away their money somehow!!
(Score: 1) by MIRV888 on Sunday August 23 2020, @01:43AM (4 children)
Seems like there's a new, completely empty, and unspoiled country that needs immigrants. There's lots of fresh water too.
How do we emigrate to Greenland? I am willing to naturalize or just take the land old school.
Let's make it happen people.
;-)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @01:46AM (2 children)
Greenland (what a joke of name) officially belongs to Denmark.
So, buy and eat lots of danish butter cookie, save the receipts and tell the Danish embassy how much you deserve residency visa for Greenland.
Plan B - go to Canada, and just cross over to Greenland. Bring Canadian whiskey.
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 23 2020, @02:32PM (1 child)
You say bring alcohol as a joke, but it is rather true. It strikes me that whether it's an atoll in the South Pacific or an arctic setting, the locals, when asked, will say they drink a lot.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by dry on Monday August 24 2020, @03:45AM
He's probably talking about the ongoing war between Canada and Denmark, Canada uses Canadian Club and Denmark uses Schnapps for weapons. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Island [wikipedia.org]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @04:03AM
You’d go no questions asked?
What form of government and economic system are you hoping to find there?
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @03:47AM (6 children)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Century [wikipedia.org]
Abandoned in 1967. Been snowed on ever since.
Worst case scenario it will be uncovered by the melt in 2090.
That implies the amount of thaw is minuscule compared to the amount of ice deposited in only 53 years.
It’s all bullshit.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @05:58AM
What are you talking about? Do you just skim over even the summary??
(Score: 1) by MIRV888 on Sunday August 23 2020, @12:47PM (3 children)
You know how we forge modern steel?
How we put man made objects in space?
How turbofan engines are manufactured & serviced?
How we refine uranium into fuel or weapons grade material?
Because it isn't by implying the amounts of anything.
What you need is legitimate, vetted & peer reviewed data to support your assertion that this melting isn't even unusual.
Science or no one will believe you.
So you've got your work cut out for you.
Ice cores called. I couldn't understand them because they were laughing so hard.
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 23 2020, @03:05PM (1 child)
I replied at greater length downthread, but you are so cocksure below and here that I needed to correct what you have said to point out those ice cores are laughing at you, not the poster you were replying to.
In fact, an honest student of the science and data would go beyond the ice cores that already disprove what you assert and point out in the same source I presented it discusses the evidence for even much higher temperatures and concentrations of atmospheric CO2 millions of years ago before humans even evolved or learned how to burn fossil fuels.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @08:08PM
I enjoyed the part where Pimunu ripped you to shreds. So polite about it too. I had no idea so manybusers around herr, like yourself, are so scientifically illiterate.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 24 2020, @08:34AM
Durrrrrc I have mod points durrrrrrrrhhhrrrrrrrr
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 24 2020, @08:32AM
How the fuck is this a troll?
Op replying to his own post. I’m not even a climate change denier.
You people are beyond fucking retarded.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @06:26AM (6 children)
This has happened many times before, every time there's an interglacial period. That's about every 120,000 years and we're due for it. The melting is right on schedule and is exactly what we expect from the natural cycles.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by MIRV888 on Sunday August 23 2020, @01:01PM (5 children)
Science says different.
You know about science right?
The method by which all modern human life is built?
The results of which work everywhere. Scientific methods and discoveries are employed quite consistently.
Science says the rapid increase in CO2 levels over the last 400 years vs. 100,000+ years of hard data (ice cores) are extremely unusual.
The math on fuel consumption says it ain't 'cycles'. It's us. Our civilization's power sources are having serious impacts on CO2 levels.
Everything goes in cycles ain't gonna cut it. Hard data or no dice.
(Score: 1) by HammeredGlass on Sunday August 23 2020, @02:46PM
I do think that we have sped things up, but this was always going to happen because there are cycles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles [wikipedia.org]
(Score: 2) by requerdanos on Sunday August 23 2020, @02:48PM
Honestly, now, not [duckduckgo.com] every [duckduckgo.com] facet [duckduckgo.com] of modern life observes nor respects "science." Your assertion is not tenable.
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 23 2020, @03:00PM (2 children)
OK, here you go [wikimedia.org]. Ice cores taken from Vostok Station in Antarctica show that atmospheric CO2 has been higher than now in the last 450K years. The current spike began about 15-20K years ago. (Presumably that was the Flintstones and Rubbles burning all that petrol in their pedal racers?) Further, the spikes in CO2 look rather cyclical to the eye, with the spikes recurring at a somewhat regular interval; our current spike fits that pattern.
The same data set shows the temperature has also spiked at roughly the same intervals as the CO2, and that it was higher at peak in the past than we have achieved now.
In other words, the science, the actual data, supports the presence of cyclical variations in atmospheric CO2 and in temperatures. It is the science, the actual data, and you cannot question that.
We do not know what the current peak will be, or to what degree human activity will influence it. There are scientists who have models that try to predict what it will be, but "model" is really just a guess because nobody knows what the future will bring.
It's also worth considering that the sum of human activity is a tiny, tiny fraction of the total energy of Earth's systems. With all the solar energy shining down on the Earth every second and all the tidal forces squeezing and flexing its mass and all the chemical processes occurring within the mantle and in the crust, the fossil fuel industry is a fraction of a fraction of a drop in the bucket, no matter how impressed we are with ourselves or how much we hate the smug assholes who run oil companies.
So let's treat science like what it is, an ongoing series of hypotheses that are disproved or are failed to be disproved, and data like what data is, a series of measurements that might be more or less precise, instead of a 21st century version of HOLY WRIT.
If instead we want to treat science and data like holy writ, then you now have to be quiet and sit down and cease with your alarmism because I brought full science and data to disprove what you were asserting.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by PiMuNu on Sunday August 23 2020, @07:30PM (1 child)
That's interesting, I hadn't seen that. I just checked the wikipedia article and it confirms your data:
"Carbon dioxide concentrations have shown several cycles of variation from about 180 parts per million during the deep glaciations of the Holocene and Pleistocene to 280 parts per million during the interglacial periods."
BUT it then goes on with
"Following the start of the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric CO2 concentration increased to over 400 parts per million and continues to increase, causing the phenomenon of global warming.[9]"
Is that right? Sorry I am probably naive just checking wikipedia article
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere [wikipedia.org]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 23 2020, @08:11PM
Yes that is right, and many people who make the cycles argument completely ignore that previous CO2 spikes occurred over a much longer span.