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I've long appreciated the War Nerd's insight, knowledge, and humor about historical and current foreign policy. In three articles, the War Nerd breaks down the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and makes it clear how little threat ISIS really poses.
First, the War Nerd analyses the supposed scary and menacing ISIS advance on the Syrian Kurdish village of Kobanei as insignificant and a pathetic year-long campaign by ISIS that highlights its weakness rather than its strength.
Next the War Nerd wonders why while the U.S. is bombs away on ISIS that Israel has been quiet, pointing out, "Nobody ever seems to mention it, but the supposedly fearsome IS now owns the ground right under Israel’s Golan Heights fortifications, after moving in in June 2014 when the weary SAA, tired of being shelled by the IDF, moved out. So IS has been in place right there on Israel’s border for months now—and there’s been no attack from Israel. Yes, folks, you might actually get the impression that the Israelis—who know a thing or two about threat assessment—just don’t take IS very seriously."
Last, the War Nerd debunks the recent claims that ISIS is an advancing threat on Baghdad, "Islamic State isn’t looming over Baghdad so much as sulking outside it, in the final Sunni enclave — stalled out and dreaming of a return to the hegemony the Sunni held over the city ten years ago. And if you really think that Baghdad, which is now firmly in Shia hands, is like some damsel in distress, just waiting to be ravished by big, bad IS…well, you haven’t been following the record of the Shia militias which drove the Sunni out in the first place."
So why is the U.S. escalating?
(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday October 13 2014, @02:43PM
and after the revolution its going to be even weaker...
I can think of a number of cases where that didn't happen. Cambodia under the Khmer Rogue and Cuba under the Castro revolutionaries to name examples from my previous post. Contrary to your assertion, a lot of times the revolutionaries ruthlessly suppress rivals resulting in a much stronger government than what they replaced.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Monday October 13 2014, @03:12PM
Yes you have two anecdotes. I checked wikipedia and they list 87 pages under "20th century revolutions". Not all 85 failed of course.
I am also looking at it pragmatically, "lets have a revolution" net average usually does very little good for military, cultural influence, and economic growth. Its hard to come out ahead by killing a bunch of people. The net aggregate effect of the Khmer and Castro is probably somewhat negative compared to their competitors. Compare Miami vs Havana, for example.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday October 13 2014, @05:59PM
Yes you have two anecdotes.
Two anecdotes which I consider particularly relevant.
I am also looking at it pragmatically, "lets have a revolution" net average usually does very little good for military, cultural influence, and economic growth.
Depends on what the goals are. Those things don't matter, for example, if you're the last man standing.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday October 13 2014, @11:37PM
Cuba under the Castro revolutionaries[...]resulting in a much stronger government
...which actually serves the needs of its people, starting with universal medical care as well as universal education (which results in an extremely high literacy rate--way better than USA). [googleusercontent.com] (orig) [dissidentvoice.org]
The Cuban concept of Democracy is pretty awesome:
from Comparative Democracy: Revolutionary versus Capitalist [dissidentvoice.org]
In the final chapters of "Cuba and Its Neighbours", Cuban democracy is laid out for the readers. Among its facets are:
* "the right to vote is recognized by the state without any effort of the voter" (146)
* secret ballot universal suffrage
* minimum voting age is 16 (157)
* municipal elections involve no candidate expenses and no campaigning
* municipal delegates work as volunteers (except presidents and vice-presidents who receive same salary as at workplace)
* up to 50% of municipal delegates are elected to Parliament (ANPP) and are known as de base deputies
* the other approximately 50% of parliamentarians, known as directos, are nominated directly by organizations; everyone not already elected to municipal assembly, can be a directo
* ANPP deputies are volunteers with some exceptions such as president, vice-president, secretary of the ANPP
* a candidate must receive 50+% of the vote
* the president is chosen by the ANPP
Other features are a high voter turnout which contrasts with voter disgruntlement in the US (57.5% in the 2012 US presidential election) while even municipal elections draw 90+% in Cuba.
.
Cuba is also a great global neighbor, volunteering its medical skills to other nations. [googleusercontent.com] (orig) [wordpress.com]
.
If it wasn't for the USA's embargo, you wouldn't be able to tell the difference between Havana and Calle Ocho (SW 8th Street) in Miami.
The embargo is really simple and really effective:
Hey, CountyX, you say you want to do business with Cuba?
Fine. USA banks won't process any of your transactions with USA companies.
You have the choice: USA or Cuba, but not both.
If you had had that kind of bully on your playground, the masses would have gotten baseball bats and beaten him to a bloody pulp.
-- gewg_