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from the you-pay-your-money-and-you-take-your-chances dept.
Self-styled political outsiders Donald Trump (a billionaire businessman) and Ben Carson (a former neurosurgeon) are the frontrunners for the 2016 GOP nomination for the US Presidency, according to the Real Clear Politics average of five major polls conducted between October 10-18, 2015: Trump's 27 pct and Carson's 21 pct are far ahead of the next tier, which consists of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (9 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (8 pct) and former Florida Gov Jeb Bush (7 pct).
The betting markets view the race differently. Rubio has recently taken over as front-runner in most of the political books and prediction markets, replacing Bush, who is now in second place. This duo is followed by Trump, and then (in varying order) Carson, Cruz, and former businesswoman Carly Fiorina. The remaining nine candidates who have participated in at least one televised GOP debate, and who have not dropped out, are given long odds, typically between 15-1 and 100-1.
Here is the current betting line from Ladbrokes, a London-based bookmaker. For those who enjoy staring at spreadsheets, here is the rollup of online bookmakers and prediction markets.
A few books admit the possibility that a presently-undeclared candidate such as Mitt Romney or Michael Bloomberg could win the GOP nomination, perhaps to break a voting deadlock at the convention; they are given long odds.
Betting on political elections is prohibited in the USA, but overseas bettors aren't subject to such puritanical restrictions. A UK journalist, commenting on the betting action over who would be the country's prime minister after the upcoming general election, explained why the betting markets are often a more reliable guide than the pollsters. Incidentally, they turned out to be right in the case discussed in the article; incumbent David Cameron retained the office after the Conservatives won enough seats in Parliament to assemble a working majority.
(Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Monday October 26 2015, @02:34PM
Trump only wants the presidency because he is an eagle testicle maniac. :)
(Score: 1) by zimluura on Monday October 26 2015, @03:46PM
I think Trump wants the presidency because he wants to build a big, expensive, ineffective wall all along the southern border. He'll claim that his construction company is the best one for the job (their *estimate* will be the lowest, any penalties will receive presidential pardon) and then begin draining the US treasury right into his own wallet.
It's either that or he's just a shill to force the republican party nomination so far right as to be unelectable...y'know, like last time.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday October 26 2015, @05:10PM
Perhaps, but I doubt it. Trump is an egomaniac. Acquiring money strokes the egomaniac's ego, but eventually it gets old. The egomaniac gets a TV show, which make him and his wealth more well-known, which strokes his ego until that gets old. What's next? Become president! What better ego boost could there be?
The interesting thing about Trump is that, thanks to his ego, he might actually have enough of a spine to make significant positive changes (e.g. shaking up some federal departments and making them efficient) if elected. After all, if you are a true egomaniac your highest priority would be to be seen by history as the best president ever. The true egomaniac wouldn't risk being seen as a lousy president for the sake of a few dollars -- he can acquire plenty of money in other ways.
The scary thing about Trump is that he may be insane. He sure says a lot of crazy stuff. Trump reminds me a bit of Howard Stern, who is supposedly intelligent (graduated from college), but made a lot of money by going on the radio and acting like an outrageous, immature asshole -- he figured out what would resonate with the (rather pathetic) public. Trump is getting a ton of free media coverage for saying outrageous things, and the polls show that it is resonating. Is the crazy just a show? Will a sane person show up if he wins the election? I have no idea.
Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, and some interesting things to say about the Trump phenomena on his blog [dilbert.com]