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from the you-pay-your-money-and-you-take-your-chances dept.
Self-styled political outsiders Donald Trump (a billionaire businessman) and Ben Carson (a former neurosurgeon) are the frontrunners for the 2016 GOP nomination for the US Presidency, according to the Real Clear Politics average of five major polls conducted between October 10-18, 2015: Trump's 27 pct and Carson's 21 pct are far ahead of the next tier, which consists of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (9 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (8 pct) and former Florida Gov Jeb Bush (7 pct).
The betting markets view the race differently. Rubio has recently taken over as front-runner in most of the political books and prediction markets, replacing Bush, who is now in second place. This duo is followed by Trump, and then (in varying order) Carson, Cruz, and former businesswoman Carly Fiorina. The remaining nine candidates who have participated in at least one televised GOP debate, and who have not dropped out, are given long odds, typically between 15-1 and 100-1.
Here is the current betting line from Ladbrokes, a London-based bookmaker. For those who enjoy staring at spreadsheets, here is the rollup of online bookmakers and prediction markets.
A few books admit the possibility that a presently-undeclared candidate such as Mitt Romney or Michael Bloomberg could win the GOP nomination, perhaps to break a voting deadlock at the convention; they are given long odds.
Betting on political elections is prohibited in the USA, but overseas bettors aren't subject to such puritanical restrictions. A UK journalist, commenting on the betting action over who would be the country's prime minister after the upcoming general election, explained why the betting markets are often a more reliable guide than the pollsters. Incidentally, they turned out to be right in the case discussed in the article; incumbent David Cameron retained the office after the Conservatives won enough seats in Parliament to assemble a working majority.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday October 26 2015, @03:31PM
Flat taxes sound great on paper (especially to conservatives), but as someone else has mentioned, it's been well illustrated that flat taxes screw middle and lower class pretty badly. The problem with using Biblical tithing as support for this? The guy obviously doesn't understand separation of church and state.
Well, the Republican party is definitely for you then.
That's not his only problem. He contorts history to fit his narrative. His guns/Nazi/Jews statement was a bit nonsensical considering the Jews were such a small percentage of the German population and tended to not be armed to begin with. His problem is he's a religious Seventh Day Adventist fruitcake posing as a quiet and reasonable intellectual. At least with Trump you know he's a douchebag. I really hope Carson gets the nomination and then people shriek when they hear his answers to basic questions like the age of the Earth or whether humans and dinosaurs lived together. There's a lot more nuttiness to come out.
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday October 27 2015, @03:38PM
Sort of like not allowing murder because of the 7th commandment. I guess by your logic it should be allowed.