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from the you-pay-your-money-and-you-take-your-chances dept.
Self-styled political outsiders Donald Trump (a billionaire businessman) and Ben Carson (a former neurosurgeon) are the frontrunners for the 2016 GOP nomination for the US Presidency, according to the Real Clear Politics average of five major polls conducted between October 10-18, 2015: Trump's 27 pct and Carson's 21 pct are far ahead of the next tier, which consists of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (9 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (8 pct) and former Florida Gov Jeb Bush (7 pct).
The betting markets view the race differently. Rubio has recently taken over as front-runner in most of the political books and prediction markets, replacing Bush, who is now in second place. This duo is followed by Trump, and then (in varying order) Carson, Cruz, and former businesswoman Carly Fiorina. The remaining nine candidates who have participated in at least one televised GOP debate, and who have not dropped out, are given long odds, typically between 15-1 and 100-1.
Here is the current betting line from Ladbrokes, a London-based bookmaker. For those who enjoy staring at spreadsheets, here is the rollup of online bookmakers and prediction markets.
A few books admit the possibility that a presently-undeclared candidate such as Mitt Romney or Michael Bloomberg could win the GOP nomination, perhaps to break a voting deadlock at the convention; they are given long odds.
Betting on political elections is prohibited in the USA, but overseas bettors aren't subject to such puritanical restrictions. A UK journalist, commenting on the betting action over who would be the country's prime minister after the upcoming general election, explained why the betting markets are often a more reliable guide than the pollsters. Incidentally, they turned out to be right in the case discussed in the article; incumbent David Cameron retained the office after the Conservatives won enough seats in Parliament to assemble a working majority.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday October 26 2015, @06:07PM
It doesn't matter what other people do with the money. What matters is that you, as an individual, just wasted your own money on nonsense you can't afford. When I see people constantly buying garbage they can't afford (expensive houses that really aren't a good investment, brand new computers every few years, giant televisions, expensive TV service, expensive Internet service, not taking advantages of methods to keep your food prices under $2 a meal), I think about where that money could be going instead. It could be saved so that they can retire early, or even have a retirement at all. I'm the 'cheapest' person I know, which doesn't mean you can have nothing. The entire point is sustainability, and if you're making bad choices that simply aren't sustainable on your income, you're being a fool.
No advice applies to every situation, but that doesn't mean there is nothing you can do.