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from the you-pay-your-money-and-you-take-your-chances dept.
Self-styled political outsiders Donald Trump (a billionaire businessman) and Ben Carson (a former neurosurgeon) are the frontrunners for the 2016 GOP nomination for the US Presidency, according to the Real Clear Politics average of five major polls conducted between October 10-18, 2015: Trump's 27 pct and Carson's 21 pct are far ahead of the next tier, which consists of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (9 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (8 pct) and former Florida Gov Jeb Bush (7 pct).
The betting markets view the race differently. Rubio has recently taken over as front-runner in most of the political books and prediction markets, replacing Bush, who is now in second place. This duo is followed by Trump, and then (in varying order) Carson, Cruz, and former businesswoman Carly Fiorina. The remaining nine candidates who have participated in at least one televised GOP debate, and who have not dropped out, are given long odds, typically between 15-1 and 100-1.
Here is the current betting line from Ladbrokes, a London-based bookmaker. For those who enjoy staring at spreadsheets, here is the rollup of online bookmakers and prediction markets.
A few books admit the possibility that a presently-undeclared candidate such as Mitt Romney or Michael Bloomberg could win the GOP nomination, perhaps to break a voting deadlock at the convention; they are given long odds.
Betting on political elections is prohibited in the USA, but overseas bettors aren't subject to such puritanical restrictions. A UK journalist, commenting on the betting action over who would be the country's prime minister after the upcoming general election, explained why the betting markets are often a more reliable guide than the pollsters. Incidentally, they turned out to be right in the case discussed in the article; incumbent David Cameron retained the office after the Conservatives won enough seats in Parliament to assemble a working majority.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday October 26 2015, @06:39PM
1. I said nothing about lowering tax rates. I don't care what the tax rate is, a flat tax is more "fair" than saddling the middle class with a tax burden that the rich and the poor all avoid.
I like to think of the alleged middle class as paying the "stupid" tax. They are not smart (or crooked) enough to be rich, nor moral (smart) enough to be poor and use the power of the vast majority to change the system, since they are stupid enough to think they might someday be one of the rich. So I say, tax 'em till they are poor, and maybe they can rethink that whole "equal opportunity" thing.
(And, I am starting to think Runaway is gay. Carson cares about people? Really?)
(Score: 1, Troll) by Runaway1956 on Monday October 26 2015, @06:53PM
"And, I am starting to think Runaway is gay."
Are you hitting on me, you deviant?
"Carson cares about people? Really?"
Probably not. He just advanced the state of the art in neurosurgery because he couldn't think of any bettter way of getting rich. Think about it - he worked on people young and old, black and white, rich and poor. He wasn't just a neurosurgeon, he wasn't even the best neurosurgeon. He advanced the state of the art. He CARED enough to pull answers out of his ass, when no one in the world had any answers. Why would anyone do that, if they didn't care about people?
People who don't genuinely care just put in enough effort to get by.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday October 27 2015, @05:27AM
"And, I am starting to think Runaway is gay."
Are you hitting on me, you deviant?
Why do I suddenly hear banjo music? You sure got a purty mouth, Runaway! Of course, I could be confusing Arkansas with South Carolina. Wouldn't be the first time. But in general, the more anyone makes a big deal out of "the gays", the more likely they are to be in the closet. There is a Godwin in here somewhere, a raging Himmler gay Nazi Godwin. Not to mention Karl Rove's go to guy, Jeff Gannon. He was a "top". Actually, I have no idea what the means. But it is not as bad as the "Teabaggers" not knowing what teabagging was. Suddenly, I feel deviant. I know too much!!! It is time to Runaway!
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday October 27 2015, @07:16AM
"Actually, I have no idea what the means."
'nuff said - run along.
(Score: 2) by Yog-Yogguth on Thursday October 29 2015, @06:22AM
There are no banjos playing or at least none that I can hear over the loud fascist marching songs coming from whoever troll-bombs opposing viewpoints.
It is misuse of the moderation system to mod people as trolling just because one doesn't like whatever opinon is espoused, please stop doing it whoever it is, over time it destroys debate as well as conversation and participation: in my opinion such misuse killed /. just as much as what Dice did.
It is also the traditional dictionary definition of being bigoted.
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