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posted by martyb on Monday October 26 2015, @12:31PM   Printer-friendly
from the you-pay-your-money-and-you-take-your-chances dept.

Self-styled political outsiders Donald Trump (a billionaire businessman) and Ben Carson (a former neurosurgeon) are the frontrunners for the 2016 GOP nomination for the US Presidency, according to the Real Clear Politics average of five major polls conducted between October 10-18, 2015: Trump's 27 pct and Carson's 21 pct are far ahead of the next tier, which consists of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (9 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (8 pct) and former Florida Gov Jeb Bush (7 pct).

The betting markets view the race differently. Rubio has recently taken over as front-runner in most of the political books and prediction markets, replacing Bush, who is now in second place. This duo is followed by Trump, and then (in varying order) Carson, Cruz, and former businesswoman Carly Fiorina. The remaining nine candidates who have participated in at least one televised GOP debate, and who have not dropped out, are given long odds, typically between 15-1 and 100-1.

Here is the current betting line from Ladbrokes, a London-based bookmaker. For those who enjoy staring at spreadsheets, here is the rollup of online bookmakers and prediction markets.

A few books admit the possibility that a presently-undeclared candidate such as Mitt Romney or Michael Bloomberg could win the GOP nomination, perhaps to break a voting deadlock at the convention; they are given long odds.

Betting on political elections is prohibited in the USA, but overseas bettors aren't subject to such puritanical restrictions. A UK journalist, commenting on the betting action over who would be the country's prime minister after the upcoming general election, explained why the betting markets are often a more reliable guide than the pollsters. Incidentally, they turned out to be right in the case discussed in the article; incumbent David Cameron retained the office after the Conservatives won enough seats in Parliament to assemble a working majority.


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  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by Thexalon on Monday October 26 2015, @09:26PM

    by Thexalon (636) on Monday October 26 2015, @09:26PM (#254885)

    Are capgains an income?

    I would assume yes. They certainly should be: You got more money out that you put in, and that's income.

    Indeed, if I had the power to make one change to the current tax structure, I'd switch things around to make the capital gains rate higher than the wages rate (currently it's about half the wages rate). If we're going with the theory that taxes discourage whatever activity is being taxed, then why would we discourage work more than we discourage investment, when work is what creates the goods and services that drive the real economy?

    The concept of "double taxation" is basically bunk. I live in a state with a sales and an income tax. That means that when I earn money (however I do so), I pay a tax. And then when I spend that money, I pay another tax on the same income. And then the store owner pays a tax on that already-taxed sale as their income which means it was taxed twice on the same transaction. And all of that is considered normal and accepted. How is it that capital gains is any different? The real reason is this: Capital gains taxes are paid most heavily by rich people, and those rich people can and do spend a lot of money lavishly funding think tanks whose entire purpose is to come up with various ways of dressing up in nice intellectual language the statement "I don't want to pay taxes" (which is just a slightly more sophisticated way of saying "I want more money").

    --
    The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.
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