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from the you-pay-your-money-and-you-take-your-chances dept.
Self-styled political outsiders Donald Trump (a billionaire businessman) and Ben Carson (a former neurosurgeon) are the frontrunners for the 2016 GOP nomination for the US Presidency, according to the Real Clear Politics average of five major polls conducted between October 10-18, 2015: Trump's 27 pct and Carson's 21 pct are far ahead of the next tier, which consists of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (9 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (8 pct) and former Florida Gov Jeb Bush (7 pct).
The betting markets view the race differently. Rubio has recently taken over as front-runner in most of the political books and prediction markets, replacing Bush, who is now in second place. This duo is followed by Trump, and then (in varying order) Carson, Cruz, and former businesswoman Carly Fiorina. The remaining nine candidates who have participated in at least one televised GOP debate, and who have not dropped out, are given long odds, typically between 15-1 and 100-1.
Here is the current betting line from Ladbrokes, a London-based bookmaker. For those who enjoy staring at spreadsheets, here is the rollup of online bookmakers and prediction markets.
A few books admit the possibility that a presently-undeclared candidate such as Mitt Romney or Michael Bloomberg could win the GOP nomination, perhaps to break a voting deadlock at the convention; they are given long odds.
Betting on political elections is prohibited in the USA, but overseas bettors aren't subject to such puritanical restrictions. A UK journalist, commenting on the betting action over who would be the country's prime minister after the upcoming general election, explained why the betting markets are often a more reliable guide than the pollsters. Incidentally, they turned out to be right in the case discussed in the article; incumbent David Cameron retained the office after the Conservatives won enough seats in Parliament to assemble a working majority.
(Score: 2) by el_oscuro on Tuesday October 27 2015, @01:11AM
While there is plenty to dislike about Carson, it seems like there is less than most other candidates. As proof, the washington post went batshit insane about his comment about how the 2nd amendment might have changed the holocaust. While it is a debatable issue, it is hardly batshit insane. There is a very interesting article published during the 75th aniversity of Kristallnacht. [washingtontimes.com]
SoylentNews is Bacon! [nueskes.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday October 27 2015, @02:23AM
Regardless of how much 'better' he supposedly is than the other clowns, he is still a bad candidate. He wants to forbid abortion except if the woman's life is in danger. He wants to forbid abortion even if the woman was raped. He supports the drug war, has said many things that indicate he's opposed to the separation of church and state, opposes gay marriage, and probably holds many other anti-freedom stances as well. I believe he's just another anti-freedom candidate who is hardly different from a grand majority of politicians.
(Score: 2) by aristarchus on Tuesday October 27 2015, @08:36AM
More than batshit insane! Seventh Day Adventist and John Birch and W. Cleon Skousen, the wacko-ist of the wacos!
While it is a debatable issue, it is hardly batshit insane.
Extremely batshit insane! So much batshit insane that the Potassium Nitrate pfiltrates itself right into your dry powder for a total rebellion with Cilven, where wacko Mormons, Seventh Day-o-ists, and just plain "the only people left in the Republican Party" congregate. Bats themselves can not believe how crazy Carson is, and that he is a front-runner for the crazy in the Republican (Crazy) Party. I was just talking to God the other day, you know, the one true God, the Flying Spagetti Monster, and he said that he never talked to any of the Republican candidates, let alone encouraged them to run. So I am lead to a single solitary conclusion: Satan is behind the Republicans. Would not Satan be a Mormon? Wouldn't Satan be a neurosurgeon? Wouldn't Satan . . .Oh crap, if anyone is so gullible as to believe in demonic influence on the Republican Party, they might as well vote Republican. What's the difference, anyway?
Well, here's a hint: crazy people are often wrong. Not always, but enough that maybe they should not be elected.
And as well, you may want to actually read history. Yes, reading is hard for Republicans, but with practice anyone can read. Look up the "Warsaw Ghetto Uprising", Jews with guns. Carson wasn't there.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 28 2015, @03:12PM
Why's he more insane than any other big-guy-in-the-sky idiot?
The christain sabbath is borrowed directly from the jewish one, which starts t sun-down on friday and ends at sun-down on saturday. To simply continue that convention isn't particularly weird at all. In particular comared to the suspenion of disbelief required to believe in fairies in the first place.