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from the you-pay-your-money-and-you-take-your-chances dept.
Self-styled political outsiders Donald Trump (a billionaire businessman) and Ben Carson (a former neurosurgeon) are the frontrunners for the 2016 GOP nomination for the US Presidency, according to the Real Clear Politics average of five major polls conducted between October 10-18, 2015: Trump's 27 pct and Carson's 21 pct are far ahead of the next tier, which consists of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (9 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (8 pct) and former Florida Gov Jeb Bush (7 pct).
The betting markets view the race differently. Rubio has recently taken over as front-runner in most of the political books and prediction markets, replacing Bush, who is now in second place. This duo is followed by Trump, and then (in varying order) Carson, Cruz, and former businesswoman Carly Fiorina. The remaining nine candidates who have participated in at least one televised GOP debate, and who have not dropped out, are given long odds, typically between 15-1 and 100-1.
Here is the current betting line from Ladbrokes, a London-based bookmaker. For those who enjoy staring at spreadsheets, here is the rollup of online bookmakers and prediction markets.
A few books admit the possibility that a presently-undeclared candidate such as Mitt Romney or Michael Bloomberg could win the GOP nomination, perhaps to break a voting deadlock at the convention; they are given long odds.
Betting on political elections is prohibited in the USA, but overseas bettors aren't subject to such puritanical restrictions. A UK journalist, commenting on the betting action over who would be the country's prime minister after the upcoming general election, explained why the betting markets are often a more reliable guide than the pollsters. Incidentally, they turned out to be right in the case discussed in the article; incumbent David Cameron retained the office after the Conservatives won enough seats in Parliament to assemble a working majority.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday October 27 2015, @02:00PM
I know you jest but people actually believe this.
Growing up, the gay kids we made fun of and called gay/faggot/queer, turned out gay. Not because we berated them or forced them to become gay but because THEY WERE GAY and we knew it. They hung out with the girls, skipped rope, avoided hanging with the boys and played with the girls during gym. They didn't decide one day: "you know what, i'm going to suck some other dudes cock and fall in love with him because that's what I want to do." They were born to love other men and suck cock.
Gays aren't a threat to society as gays are natural. They only threaten small minded, self hating closet gays who believe that some jew died on a board of wood to save their soul. Same for the other brain dead morons believing in similar "invisible man" in the sky, war mongering prophets and other idiotic fairy tales. They are the real threat to society.