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Despite Lavish Subsidies, Fossil Fuel Loses In Latest IEA Forecast

posted by cmn32480 on Friday November 13 2015, @02:57AM   

Phoenix666 writes:

Renewables represent the future, even if they get far less in subsidies than fossil fuels. At least according to the data in the latest report from the International Energy Agency.

The agency's World Energy Outlook 2015 provides a comprehensive forecast of the use and consumption of energy worldwide. Energy demand is still rising—the IEA estimates that total global energy demand will rise by 33% by 2040—but a growing proportion of it will come from renewables. The growing popularity of efficiency and regulations promoting efficiency, meanwhile, will also keep a ceiling on overall demand.

Like last year's report, the 2015 report also underscores the vast sea change that has taken place in the world energy scenario. In the 2004 IEA report, solar didn't rate a mention and "efficiency" was only mentioned twice in the summary.

Sea change.

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Original Submission

• Re:the oil drum used to call it bullshit Re:the oil drum used to call it bullshit (Score: 2) by fritsd on Friday November 13 2015, @08:55PM

  by fritsd (4586) on Friday November 13 2015, @08:55PM (#262828) Journal

  Actually, they seemed to be unbiased, in my opinion. It's the people *working* in the oil industry that wrote that blog, as opposed to the *investors* and *directors* of the oil industry. They were always speculating about whether the Hubbert peak [wikipedia.org] would be in 2005 or 2006; now which oil investor or CEO would dare to mention that topic at all?

  (That Wiki page is a well written summary BTW and it gives another reason why pensionfunds should dis-invest in fossil fuel companies)

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• Re:the oil drum used to call it bullshit (Score: 2) by fritsd on Friday November 13 2015, @09:03PM

  by fritsd (4586) on Friday November 13 2015, @09:03PM (#262834) Journal

  (possibly talking to meself here) Actually, about the Wiki page of peak oil: I disagree with the paragraph

  Hubbert's original prediction that US peak oil would be in about 1970 seemed accurate for a time, as US average annual production peaked in 1970 at 9.6 million barrels per day.[12] However, the successful application of massive hydraulic fracturing to additional tight reservoirs caused US production to rebound, challenging the inevitability of post-peak decline.[13] In addition, Hubbert's original predictions for world production proved premature.[4]

  because what you'd then do is fit it as two separate curves, one for "conventional" and one for "fracking", and calculate those parameters. I mean, the graph doesn't show the Hubbert peak curve for whale oil either, but the producers of lamp oil where very happy in Moby Dick's time that this newfangled "petroleum" could replace the more-and-more costly cetaceous stuff.

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