Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
Do any of you have any noteworthy experiences where knowledge of math helped you in an unusual way?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 29 2016, @03:54PM
I'm a mathematician, by education. ... Honestly, if people learned just a bit more statistics and probability, gambling revenues would plummet and shampoo ads would end up having to actually confess they are all really just Sodium Laureth Sulphate in varying different concentrations.
No they wouldn't. You are looking at this with a theoretical rational perspective, rather than a practical one. You are taking an psychological/marketing problem and trying to apply mathematics to it.
For the gambling one, there are numerous people who know the math and do it anyway. It's spending money to purchase enjoyment. Think of it this way. "I can spend $20 to see a movie for 2 hours of enjoyment, or I can spend $5 on some lottery tickets and fantasize for an hour over what I would do with millions of dollars." (The strictly rational person would eschew both of them as being irrational wastes of resources.) I suppose you only said revenue would plummet, though, so I guess that could be true as some people are "just that ignorant."
For the shampoo, people are buying an image and lifestyle fantasy. It's the same reason why the Mona Lisa is priceless but an copy is nearly worthless. In all practical ways they are identical, except they aren't. Likewise the Sodium Laureth Sulphate is all mostly identical (excepting that they have different levels of quality control, different amounts of add-ins to change how hair acts, etc), but convey a different feeling upon purchase and use.
Sure it's not rational. However, I'm reminded of the old quote that I heard in an economics class, "only two people act economically rationally: economists and sociopaths."
(I will add that your larger point that "even true numbers told in earnest can be deceiving" is very valid and insightful.")
(Score: 3, Interesting) by sjames on Friday July 29 2016, @07:10PM
On the other hand, I can take an hour walk and fantasize what I would do if I find a winning lottery ticket in the gutter.
I see your point in general, and have to wonder at economists that still cling to the idea of rational actors in a market. It makes the physicist's spherical cow in a vacuum seem perfectly reasonable in comparison.
What would really kill marketing as a profession would be an outbreak of high functioning autism.