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posted by takyon on Tuesday August 30 2016, @12:42AM   Printer-friendly
from the sun-is-waiting dept.

The Price of Solar Is Declining to Unprecedented Lows: Despite already low costs, the installed price of solar fell by 5 to 12 percent in 2015

The installed price of solar energy has declined significantly in recent years as policy and market forces have driven more and more solar installations.

Now, the latest data show that the continued decrease in solar prices is unlikely to slow down anytime soon, with total installed prices dropping by 5 percent for rooftop residential systems, and 12 percent for larger utility-scale solar farms. With solar already achieving record-low prices, the cost decline observed in 2015 indicates that the coming years will likely see utility-scale solar become cost competitive with conventional forms of electricity generation.  

A full analysis of the ongoing decline in solar prices can be found in two separate Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Reports: Tracking the Sun IX focuses on installed pricing trends in the distributed rooftop solar market while Utility-Scale Solar 2015 focuses on large-scale solar farms that sell bulk power to the grid.

[...] The installed cost includes everything needed to get a solar power system up and running: the panels, the power electronics, the mounting hardware, and the installation itself. The continued decline in total installed cost is noteworthy considering the fact that the price of the solar panels (or modules) themselves has remained relatively flat since 2012. This means that the decline in installed cost observed since 2012 was largely caused by a decline in the cost of the inverters that convert the DC power produced by solar panels to AC power for the grid and other "soft" costs such as customer acquisition, system design, installation, and permitting.

[...] Going forward, the declining price of solar across all categories demonstrated by the latest Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory reports coupled with the extension of the federal renewable energy investment tax credit through 2019 should drive a continued expansion of the U.S. solar market and even more favorable economics in the next few years. It will certainly be interesting to see what kind of market dynamic develops as solar approaches the tipping point where it becomes more economical than conventional forms of electricity generation.


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  • (Score: 2) by GreatAuntAnesthesia on Tuesday August 30 2016, @09:53AM

    by GreatAuntAnesthesia (3275) on Tuesday August 30 2016, @09:53AM (#395198) Journal

    >>Its still the price of a new car. In round bald numbers its still 25K for a small rooftop.
    >No, it's not. Most installed systems are 4-5kW. That size of system costs $15k-$18k.

    Just as an act of petty pedantry I was going to point out that $15-18k is still enough to buy a new car. Then I decided that I ought to do some fact checking first, since this was based on an in-my-head conversion of approximate UK prices into US dollars. I looked up some new car prices in the USA, and their corresponding prices in the UK, and it seems you colonials pay quite a bit more for your vehicles than we do. This is a refreshing change, since we Brits normally pay over the odds for most things.

    Cheapest new cars in the UK that I could find are the Dacia[1] Sandero at ~£6k, and various other small cars at ~£7k.
    Cheapest US new cars seem to come in at around $12.5k - $13k (Nissan Versa, Chevy Spark, Smart ForTwo.)
    At today's exchange rate, that's a significant difference.

    Is this some tax / regulation overhead that we don't pay, or is it simply that USians can't conceive of buying a car without a big engine, aircon and an automatic gearbox?

    A bit of googling suggests that you can get a car across the Atlantic for less than $2000 (that's just shipping, I'm sure there would be other expenses not accounted for here), so if you were in the market for a cheap new car, live on the US East coast (or live further west and want an excuse for a road trip) and don't mind waiting then I wondered if it would be worth buying a new vehicle in Western France, Spain or Portugal (since it will not only be even cheaper than the UK, but will also be LHD) and getting it shipped over.

    I decided to dig deeper and went as far as trying to compare like-for-like on a typical car using the car configurators on the Ford.com, Ford.co.uk and Ford.es websites. Basic Ford Focus with 1.0 Ecoboost engine and Automatic transmission:
    US $19130
    UK £18345 (~$24000)
    ES €15955 (~$17823)
    As you can see the results do not support the "UK is cheaper" premise above. Based on this sample size of one, the UK one is by far the most expensive, with the Euro price being the cheapest, but probably not quite cheap enough to justify transatlantic shipping costs. However this isn't exactly a high-end car, a more expensive vehicle might magnify the differences and make shipping worthwhile. Also Ford is a US company, I'd be interested to see if domestic brands are cheaper than imported ones even though all brands are manufactured on both continents. If anyone can be bothered to do a like-for-like comparison on a more expensive European vehicle, (say a BMW or Porsche) then maybe it would get interesting.

    [1] I suspect Across-the-ponders will be unfamiliar with the Dacia marque. The story is similar to that of Skoda: Originally an East-European Soviet brand renowned for cheap, crappy cars, it got bought out by a reputable west-european manufacturer (Renault in this case) and is now producing quality cars with low price tags.

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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 30 2016, @01:53PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 30 2016, @01:53PM (#395270)

    The US wouldn't let European cars in for sale.

  • (Score: 2) by Whoever on Tuesday August 30 2016, @02:22PM

    by Whoever (4524) on Tuesday August 30 2016, @02:22PM (#395286) Journal

    You forgot that US prices do not include sales tax, which varies by state and city.

  • (Score: 2) by Zinho on Tuesday August 30 2016, @04:55PM

    by Zinho (759) on Tuesday August 30 2016, @04:55PM (#395343)

    or is it simply that USians can't conceive of buying a car without a big engine, aircon and an automatic gearbox?

    This.

    bigger === better

    aircon is not optional unless you live in the far north (like Maine), or at very high altitude (like Colorado). Remember that the furthest south point in Great Britain is a higher latitude than essentially every point in the lower 48 states. Florida is entirely south of Morocco.

    and why in $DIETY's name does every manufacturer in the US assume that no-one wants to drive a standard transmission??? The excuse that "women don't like the distraction" is insulting to my wife, sisters, mother, and daughter who ALL DO IT JUST FINE and like it better than automatics.

    But yeah, you've got the U.S. figured out; no need to look much farther than this.

    --
    "Space Exploration is not endless circles in low earth orbit." -Buzz Aldrin
  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 30 2016, @10:44PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 30 2016, @10:44PM (#395483)

    Taxes are extra, and they vary. Some places charge a few thousand $ to register the car. (Maryland is bad) Some places have a high sales tax; it could be around 10%.

    We have pretty severe driver-oriented passive safety requirements. Our assumption is that the driver is passed out and crashing into something solid, like a concrete bridge support, while driving at decently high speed.

    We have pretty severe emissions requirements. We require catalytic converters, even on small well-designed engines. For diesel, we require particulate filters and we effectively require (see VW scandal) urea injection.

    We have pretty severe fuel efficiency requirements. Normal drivers can't meet these with a manual gearbox. The new cars are coming with 8-speed automatics.