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posted by takyon on Tuesday August 30 2016, @12:42AM   Printer-friendly
from the sun-is-waiting dept.

The Price of Solar Is Declining to Unprecedented Lows: Despite already low costs, the installed price of solar fell by 5 to 12 percent in 2015

The installed price of solar energy has declined significantly in recent years as policy and market forces have driven more and more solar installations.

Now, the latest data show that the continued decrease in solar prices is unlikely to slow down anytime soon, with total installed prices dropping by 5 percent for rooftop residential systems, and 12 percent for larger utility-scale solar farms. With solar already achieving record-low prices, the cost decline observed in 2015 indicates that the coming years will likely see utility-scale solar become cost competitive with conventional forms of electricity generation.  

A full analysis of the ongoing decline in solar prices can be found in two separate Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Reports: Tracking the Sun IX focuses on installed pricing trends in the distributed rooftop solar market while Utility-Scale Solar 2015 focuses on large-scale solar farms that sell bulk power to the grid.

[...] The installed cost includes everything needed to get a solar power system up and running: the panels, the power electronics, the mounting hardware, and the installation itself. The continued decline in total installed cost is noteworthy considering the fact that the price of the solar panels (or modules) themselves has remained relatively flat since 2012. This means that the decline in installed cost observed since 2012 was largely caused by a decline in the cost of the inverters that convert the DC power produced by solar panels to AC power for the grid and other "soft" costs such as customer acquisition, system design, installation, and permitting.

[...] Going forward, the declining price of solar across all categories demonstrated by the latest Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory reports coupled with the extension of the federal renewable energy investment tax credit through 2019 should drive a continued expansion of the U.S. solar market and even more favorable economics in the next few years. It will certainly be interesting to see what kind of market dynamic develops as solar approaches the tipping point where it becomes more economical than conventional forms of electricity generation.


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  • (Score: 2) by Whoever on Wednesday August 31 2016, @01:49AM

    by Whoever (4524) on Wednesday August 31 2016, @01:49AM (#395547) Journal

    BTW I'm not claiming exactly $25K of solar panels is exactly equal to $25K of one specific local electric power company, but "its dang close" within 25% or so.

    Too right. Your investments in the local power company make global climate change worse. My solar panels reduce climate change.

    Remember the total system cost over the system lifetime is going to be way the hell more than just panels. Don't forget to talk to your homeowners insurance, permanently attached improvements increase your property tax permanently,

    The difference to my insurance is insignificant. My state, like many, waives property valuation increases for solar panel installations.

    And your electricity prices are going to increase in the future, making my panels more cost effective.

    locally I recently discovered freestanding "on a pole" panels are essentially unregulated by our local building code but every roof installation requires a structural engineers stamp on the architectural drawings verified by the planning commission and a special permit from the planning commission after a presentation at their meetings (I donno, $3K of engineer and architect time by the time you're done? And the permit itself isn't free) And of course licensed electrician to bring the whole building up to code not just grandfathered in because they're messing with the entrance facility to pump power back into the grid, etc. Oh and mods to the roof for the panels have to be done by union carpenters, which means it'll be done right but it'll be expensive.

    Got any more ridiculous ideas that you want to get off your chest while you are at it?

    I am guessing that you live in a state where the utilities have influenced the state laws in order to make solar panels more expensive and difficult to install.

    My state requires that cities use an expedited permit approval process for solar installations. It's quick and cheap.

    We did not have to bring the whole house up to today's code. Yes, we do need new smoke and CO detectors. Wow!

    Mods to the roof? What mods? Most roofs are strong enough.

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  • (Score: 2) by VLM on Wednesday August 31 2016, @01:19PM

    by VLM (445) on Wednesday August 31 2016, @01:19PM (#395659)

    Your investments in the local power company make global climate change worse.

    In they eye of the beholder. Where I sit there was two miles of ice not long ago, and I hope it doesn't come back anytime soon.

    I am guessing that you live in a state where the utilities have influenced the state laws in order to make solar panels more expensive and difficult to install.

    Uh, yeah, I think we agree on that.

    making my panels more cost effective.

    Yes the alpha strategy well known. I have to budget for eternal increases. Of course my local power company owns farms of solar panels and windmills so they benefit too from the same effect. They did idiotically build a bunch of natgas and coal plants over the last couple decades and even sold off or shut down their nukes, its not like they're geniuses.

    What mods? Most roofs are strong enough.

    No, most were built to barely achieve code compliance for snow loads at the time of construction, and here comes hundreds of pounds of asymmetric load on something that barely met 1960 code or older... Now its not rocket surgery to tell a carpenter to double up every fifth frame or whatever, nor is it really hard to do, of course.

    • (Score: 2) by Whoever on Wednesday August 31 2016, @07:03PM

      by Whoever (4524) on Wednesday August 31 2016, @07:03PM (#395803) Journal

      In they eye of the beholder. Where I sit there was two miles of ice not long ago, and I hope it doesn't come back anytime soon.

      So there are more powerful storms in the oceans, doing more damage, droughts in some places, flooding in others in ways that did not happen in recent history, but, hey, some ice near you melted, so, it's all good!.

      Of course my local power company

      I think you mis-spelled "employer".

      No, most were built to barely achieve code compliance for snow loads at the time of construction, and here comes hundreds of pounds of asymmetric load on something that barely met 1960 code or older... Now its not rocket surgery to tell a carpenter to double up every fifth frame or whatever, nor is it really hard to do, of course.

      Once again, you show your ignorance. Firstly, many people live in areas where snow is something that you have to drive for hundreds or thousands of miles to see. Snow loads on the roof? Never going to happen for millions of houses. Secondly, "double up every fifth frame or whatever": in fact, if you did need to strengthen a roof, this would have to be closely aligned with the attachment points of the rails, since many mounting systems use rails that are attached in only a few places. It would not help to double up on the framing, if the mounts were screwed into an unreinforced frame.

      But, no, fundamentally, you are wrong. Most roofs don't need reinforcement. If a roof needs reinforcement, solar panels are unlikely to be economically viable. I also think that solar panels weigh a lot less than you think. I am not saying that roof strength is never an issue, just that it usually isn't.

      Or is your claim that most of the existing solar panel installations don't have sufficient support in the roof? Perhaps you would like to link to a news story that describes a roof collapse due to the load of a solar installation?

      I suspect very strongly that your position is not based on fact, but instead, based on scare stories put out by your employer.