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posted by on Saturday November 19 2016, @01:14PM   Printer-friendly
from the simon-says-campaign-in-pennsylvania dept.

Submitted via IRC for chromas

The Clinton presidential campaign used a complex computer algorithm called Ada to assist in many of the most important decisions during the race.

According to aides, a raft of polling numbers, public and private, were fed into the algorithm, as well as ground-level voter data meticulously collected by the campaign. Once early voting began, those numbers were factored in, too.

What Ada did, based on all that data, aides said, was run 400,000 simulations a day of what the race against Trump might look like. A report that was spit out would give campaign manager Robby Mook and others a detailed picture of which battleground states were most likely to tip the race in one direction or another — and guide decisions about where to spend time and deploy resources.

Of course, the results are only as good as the data. Since the outcome of the election was different than most poll predictions, it seems like Ada may have had a Garbage In, Garbage Out problem.


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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @01:44PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @01:44PM (#429388)

    Seems the algo didn't factor in electoral college but just for for the overall "hearts and minds"?
    maybe, more importantly, next time the used algo should work towards getting a 90% voter turn out instead?
    i'm sure if both sides-parties-colors-animals feed in data this might even be attainable ^_^

  • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Saturday November 19 2016, @02:06PM

    by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@proton.me> on Saturday November 19 2016, @02:06PM (#429396) Homepage Journal

    Sounds to me like it was working on a per-state basis and letting the EC worries fall to humans.

    --
    My rights don't end where your fear begins.
  • (Score: 1) by Francis on Saturday November 19 2016, @05:06PM

    by Francis (5544) on Saturday November 19 2016, @05:06PM (#429467)

    More likely the algorithm assumed that the Sanders supporters wouldn't refuse to vote for her in such large numbers. And it almost certainly wouldn't have factored in the possibility that a lot of them would wind up voting for Trump. Nor is it likely that the algorithm would consider the large turnout amongst rural voters that hadn't really been showing up to vote in recent years.

    Algorithms are only as good as the input data and the assumptions that you're using. It should have been obvious to anybody with two brain cells to rub together that if you have to have surrogates engaging in election fraud to help you win the primary that you're likelihood of winning the GE is rather low. Why should any of use vote for a candidate that disenfranchised our vote to win the primary?

    • (Score: 2) by aristarchus on Saturday November 19 2016, @06:09PM

      by aristarchus (2645) on Saturday November 19 2016, @06:09PM (#429502) Journal

      More likely ... And it almost certainly wouldn't . . . . Nor is it likely that . . . that hadn't really been showing up . . .

      [ . . . ] Why should any of use vote for a candidate that disenfranchised our vote to win the primary?

      See, this is what I am talking about! Total speculation on your part, Francis! No facts, only what you "think", using the term loosely. And what is the last sentence? "Any of use vote"? What is that? I hope you feel better after expressing your "opinion", because I do not think this comment has done any good to your fellow Soylentils.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:34PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:34PM (#429562)

        So were you not paying attention when it was revealed that the DNC was pretty firmly opposed to Sanders and used a number of propaganda techniques to attack him? The party was not neutral towards him. I don't know if that could make Clinton win, but it certainly didn't hurt Sanders at least a bit.

        • (Score: 2) by aristarchus on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:40PM

          by aristarchus (2645) on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:40PM (#429566) Journal

          I don't know if that could make Clinton win, but it certainly didn't hurt Sanders at least a bit.

          Log in, Francis! Yes, you don't know, that is kind of the point. And certainly? didn't? I do not think you meant to use a negative there, did you not? So what about the algorithm?

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:58PM

            by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:58PM (#429579)

            Are you really going to try to downplay corruption just because it had an unknown effect on the amount of votes Sanders received?

            • (Score: 2) by aristarchus on Saturday November 19 2016, @08:10PM

              by aristarchus (2645) on Saturday November 19 2016, @08:10PM (#429586) Journal

              Are you really going to try to downplay corruption just because it had an unknown effect

              Is this an actual question? How can it be corruption if it had no effect? Or a counter-corrupting effect? All you are saying is that you don't know. You are saying nothing. By trying to make it seem like I am saying something, you are still saying nothing. What was the algorithm the Clinton campaign used? Oh, you don't know? Was it corrupt? Maybe, you don't know. Was it inaccurate on predictions? Obviously. Why? You don't know.

              • (Score: 2) by JNCF on Saturday November 19 2016, @08:35PM

                by JNCF (4317) on Saturday November 19 2016, @08:35PM (#429605) Journal

                How can it be corruption if it had no effect? Or a counter-corrupting effect?

                I'm sometimes left wondering where the troll ends and the philosopher begins, Detective. Let's take one obvious and well documented example of corruption in the primary -- say, Donna Brazile giving Hillary Clinton debate questions ahead of time. Now let's make the baseless assumption that Hillary came up with a worse response ahead of time than she would have come up with on the spot. In this hypothetical would you really refuse to call the act of revealing debate questions ahead of time "corruption" simply because the effect was the opposite of what was intended? If so this would seem like an odd definition of corruption; I don't think it would even include Watergate.

                • (Score: 1) by Francis on Saturday November 19 2016, @11:45PM

                  by Francis (5544) on Saturday November 19 2016, @11:45PM (#429694)

                  He's a troll, I don't generally bother responding to him because it's a waste of my time and energy, but he's definitely a troll.

                  Either that or he's got some sort of neurological impairment that prevents him from comprehending even basic facts.

                  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 20 2016, @12:20AM

                    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 20 2016, @12:20AM (#429717)

                    Either that or he's got some sort of . . .

                    So let me get this straight, you do not know whether aristarchus is a troll or not?

          • (Score: 1) by Francis on Saturday November 19 2016, @11:43PM

            by Francis (5544) on Saturday November 19 2016, @11:43PM (#429693)

            That wasn't me.

            Also, just because you've got no critical thinking skills doesn't mean that the AC is wrong here. We've got the emails and even without the emails, how do you explain the huge numbers of Democrats who had their registration changed to GOP in New York and the people who's registration was dropped in California?

            Even without the emails from the DNC, that looks incredibly suspicious.

      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday November 20 2016, @08:00AM

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday November 20 2016, @08:00AM (#429845) Journal
        OTOH, this is why we speculate too. Unless you're of the school that poorly understood means no need to understand.
        • (Score: 3, Insightful) by aristarchus on Sunday November 20 2016, @09:48AM

          by aristarchus (2645) on Sunday November 20 2016, @09:48AM (#429852) Journal

          Correct. But there is a vast difference between groundless speculation and speculation grounded in some degree of knowledge that produces testable hypotheses. We are getting none of that here. Instead we have conspiracy theories that purport to somehow to be related to a failure of speculation by the Clinton campaign's software. Failed speculation about a speculative failure, all heat and no light. Yes, we should strive to know, but chasing wild geese more often than not lead away from knowledge, for there are many more ways to be wrong than there are to be correct. The first step is to acknowledge our ignorance, this is what got Socrates in trouble. But the second step is to restrain our tendency to replace our ignorance with the first thing that comes to mind. The second step is almost more important than the first.

          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday November 20 2016, @02:19PM

            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday November 20 2016, @02:19PM (#429901) Journal
            I think that your concerns aren't warranted here. Obviously, whatever algorithm in play here is likely to remain a black box and thus, there is a certain futility to speculation about the operation of said black box. But Francis has actually given strong indications, going back over a year I might add, which indicate he has actually given election issues some serious thought, actually has some degree of personal experience with the issues, and that his speculation on such matters is not as groundless as it might first appear. This is much better than his usual and I think you should recognize that.

            As to Francis's speculation, I think I can provide a more constructive criticism.
            • (Score: 3, Insightful) by aristarchus on Sunday November 20 2016, @08:57PM

              by aristarchus (2645) on Sunday November 20 2016, @08:57PM (#430076) Journal

              This is much better than his usual and I think you should recognize that.

              Not sure I see that. Seems more like a case of Hilary Derangement Syndrome, from which you also suffer. But that is just my opinion, and what do I know?

              As to Francis's speculation, I think I can provide a more constructive criticism.

              Have at it! This is why we are all here, to help Francis become a better commenter, and to make SoylentNews a better world.

              • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday November 20 2016, @11:14PM

                by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday November 20 2016, @11:14PM (#430190) Journal

                Seems more like a case of Hilary Derangement Syndrome

                Says the guy who just posted a hysterical article [soylentnews.org] about Peter Thiel's role with the Trump administration.

                • (Score: 2) by aristarchus on Monday November 21 2016, @01:18AM

                  by aristarchus (2645) on Monday November 21 2016, @01:18AM (#430257) Journal

                  Alright, I have to ask: do you mean "hysterical" as in hysterically funny, or as in being controlled by a uterus? (Έχω τρεις ὑστέραi.)

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday November 20 2016, @02:42PM

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday November 20 2016, @02:42PM (#429906) Journal

      More likely the algorithm assumed that the Sanders supporters wouldn't refuse to vote for her in such large numbers. And it almost certainly wouldn't have factored in the possibility that a lot of them would wind up voting for Trump. Nor is it likely that the algorithm would consider the large turnout amongst rural voters that hadn't really been showing up to vote in recent years.

      Now the algorithm and data are black boxes to us. We don't know what the algorithm considered or whether and how often the Clinton campaign polled for the relevant data above. But it is worth noting that such gaps in predictions are not hard to characterize logically in a situation with limited choices.

      For example, a potential vote by an eligible voter has three possible outcomes: vote for Clinton, vote for some other presidential candidate who is not Clinton, and no countable vote (say by messing up their ballot or not voting at all). You can then further split out the various classes to attempt to capture behavior or outcomes of note. Same goes for characterization of voters' preferences (such as Bernie Sanders voters in the primaries), voter context (such as rural voters), etc.

      I don't see any obvious missteps of the Clinton campaign versus any of these categories except perhaps in their heavy handed attack of the FBI Director Comey's letter at the end which I doubt was steered by algorithm or perhaps some discounting of rural groups and such in swing states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida) which might have simply been something that they could do much about at the time even if they did know there was a problem. It appears to me that for the most part, they had good data and they used it well.

      The problem as I see it, is that Ada was meant to be a considerable advantage and appears to have successfully served as such. But no matter how great your advantages, if you're in a sufficiently bad losing position, you will lose (unless you can metagame yourself out of the situation, of course, which wasn't an option available to Ada). In the end, Ada couldn't compensate enough for the quality of the candidate.

      That's really worth noting here. Clinton outspent Trump by something like half a billion dollars, had this sophisticated algorithm on her side supposedly, and had run a much better organized and politically supported campaign. Yet she lost. We aren't going to find the cause of her loss in some algorithm or in fake news on Facebook or Google.