SoylentNews is people
SoylentNews
Submitted via IRC for chromas
The Clinton presidential campaign used a complex computer algorithm called Ada to assist in many of the most important decisions during the race.
According to aides, a raft of polling numbers, public and private, were fed into the algorithm, as well as ground-level voter data meticulously collected by the campaign. Once early voting began, those numbers were factored in, too.
What Ada did, based on all that data, aides said, was run 400,000 simulations a day of what the race against Trump might look like. A report that was spit out would give campaign manager Robby Mook and others a detailed picture of which battleground states were most likely to tip the race in one direction or another — and guide decisions about where to spend time and deploy resources.
Of course, the results are only as good as the data. Since the outcome of the election was different than most poll predictions, it seems like Ada may have had a Garbage In, Garbage Out problem.
(Score: 4, Informative) by Runaway1956 on Saturday November 19 2016, @02:45PM
"Since the outcome of the election was different than most poll predictions,"
MSM was backing Hillary, so all of their polls favored Hillary.
The DNC favored Hillary, so all of their polls favored Hillary.
If you permit me to write your polls, I can almost promise that the results are going to be something palatable to me. If you write your own polls, you'll probably get answers that are more palatable to you.
Let's not forget that some people are swayed by the results of polls. It has been observed that those states that finish voting last in the day tend to go along with the results of exit polls. People WANT TO go with a "winner", after all.
So, basically, what we have learned is, partisan poll makers tend to make polls that tell them what they want to hear. Nothing new here.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @04:21PM
MSM was backing Hillary, so all of their polls favored Hillary.
The DNC favored Hillary, so all of their polls favored Hillary.
That is conspiracy theory logic.
In 2012 the polls under-estimated Obama's margin - he was estimated to win by 0.7% [realclearpolitics.com] and actually won by just under 4%. Same MSM then as today
Trump's margin of victory here is currently negative 1% [cnn.com] and will probably reach negative 2% by the time all the ballots are counted. That's actually a pretty big margin for a modern election and of course its negative. So at a macro level many of those polls were accurate.
Polling tries to be predictive. If it doesn't predict then it is of little use. Even if the polls were intended to be persuasive rather than descriptive you are ignoring the fact that campaigns do substantial private polling which is never released to the public. Clinton's in-house polling had similar problems as the external polls. If their internal polls had shown otherwise, do you really think she would have skipped campaigning in states like Michigan and Wisconsin?
There is decent evidence that even Trump's internal polls showed him losing. For one, he kept trying to excuse a loss before it happened with all the "rigging" talk. Second, they put Chris Christie in charge of the transition team planning because they thought it was an unimportant job they could park him in. Once they actually won, they kicked him out completely because in 2005 he put Ivanka's father-in-law in prison [usatoday.com] so fuck that guy.
So, basically, what we have learned is, partisan poll makers tend to make polls that tell them what they want to hear. Nothing new here.
What we've learned here is that you see everything through a partisan lens. Nothing new here.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @05:04PM
There are two good points in there. Rather than do a lot of state polls, in most places they did a couple and used national polls to fill in the gaps. Well, if the national polls show Hillary winning, then the states will skew towards Hillary as well.
In addition, there are gaps between the populace and those that take the polls. I've never taken a poll, not even once, as I don't have the 30 minutes to take out of my day, especially because they insist on calling at the worst possible times. However, the MIL was doing at least one poll a week, as she is home all day and can answer the phone during the day.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:24PM
I always lie through my teeth when taking a poll. I also tell them upfront they only have ten minutes of my time, and hold them exactly to that limit.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by JNCF on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:01PM
That is conspiracy theory logic.
We live in a land of conspiracies, my friend. Either this email [wikileaks.org] is fake, which would be a conspiracy in and of itself, or some media polling is being systematically altered for political reasons. Pick your poison, but there's a conspiracy afoot either way:
Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.
(Score: 0, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 20 2016, @12:04AM
How can a fucking geek on this fucking website and not know what fucking oversampling [wikipedia.org] means?
I means jesus fucking christ, does hearing the name clinton initiate some sort of mind-wipe where you become more ignorant than the dumbest high-school jock?
That email is talking about polling more people in specific areas in order to reduce the margin of error. [washingtonpost.com]
Something they obviously should have done more of since they got the polls wrong in undersampled areas.
It has nothing to do with "systemically altering" the polls
FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK YOU YOU FUCKING MORONS
(Score: 2) by JNCF on Sunday November 20 2016, @05:21PM
I only see one reductionist argument in a vast sea of caps-locked "FUCK"s, accusations of partisanship, and assumptions of ignorance. Surely you understand that oversampling does skew a poll if it isn't properly weighted against -- if so, your whole comment is a distraction that dances around this obvious fact. Could the polls talked about have been weighted to account for this? Sure. I haven't seen any evidence that this was done, and it wouldn't really jive with their stated goal of doing what they can to "maximize what we get out of our media polling." I don't see any good reason that these people should even be involved in making decisions about "media polling." Blatant conspiracy is blatant.
I sometimes go down rabbit holes arguing with ACs, and I really do try to admit when I think I'm wrong. That being said, I don't think you're capable of having a coherent conversation on this topic at this time so I'm not going to bother following you any further. Sincerely, I say: I hope you have a nice day!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 20 2016, @09:24PM
> Surely you understand that oversampling does skew a poll if it isn't properly weighted against
So now your defense of the dumb is that in a casual email they didn't spell out all of the technical statistical details?
> "maximize what we get out of our media polling."
Wait you think the polling for something they would give the media?
Did you even read the link? No you did not. Let me spell it out for the person desperate to find conspiracy - they used the polls results to decide how much to spend on media buys. And since you've demonstrated a remarkable ability to suck at understanding jargon a "media buy" is advertising. And no its not some covert subliminal advertising. Its normal commercials.
> I really do try to admit when I think I'm wrong.
Apparently not. But you sure like to think of yourself like that don't you.
All those fucks, totally deserved.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 21 2016, @05:13PM
Did you even read the link? No you did not. Let me spell it out for the person desperate to find conspiracy - they used the polls results to decide how much to spend on media buys.
Your link does say that.
First of all, Matzzie doesn't appear to be talking about public polling — nor does it make sense that he would be, since public polls from media outlets are developed by pollsters who work for or with those outlets. Matzzie's talking about polling that's done by campaigns and political action committees to inform media buys. In other words, before campaigns spend $200,000 on a flight of TV spots, they'll poll on the messages in those ads and figure out what to say to whom and then target that ad to those people as best they can.
Your link does not back that up with any sources. There is no reason to assume it is correct unless you start with the assumption that these couldn't be actual media polls because that would be a conspiracy. Since this is your main point of disagreement, the logic is circular. Google will give you plenty of pre-Podesta-leak results for "media poll" referring to polls run by media institutions. Why do you and The Washington Post assume that it means something else in this context? Could it be confirmation bias?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @06:45PM
So I guess we'll just ignore that HRC won the popular vote...
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Runaway1956 on Saturday November 19 2016, @08:44PM
Rather, you are ignoring the fact that a very few small, densely populated cities in this nation expect the country to follow their lead. Wag the dog, so to say. Look at that map of counties again - a couple larger islands, and several smaller islands, in a sea of red. But, you want to claim that Hillary is popular, based on that?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 20 2016, @11:56AM
To an outsider in the modern age, it looks like the originators of the Electoral College system took a look at the first past the post system and asked themselves "how can we make it worse?". I don't have skin in the game beyond if the US farts my country has to either hold its breath or berate the dog, but not a single candidate from *any* party is worth a damn. Sanders was the best of a bad lot but look what happened to him. Clinton was the status quo personified and if people were happy with the status quo, Sanders wouldn't have got a look-in. Every single Republican candidate is batshit crazy. If they want to get back to normal, they'll need to take the likes of Cruz (and opportunist shit-stirrers like Palin) et al out the back and send them to the Great Congress in the Sky. Both mainstream parties are simply ultra-distilled versions of themselves and no, none of them are in the slightest bit politically left wing. Sanders is centre-right, the rest are further and further to the right. The US is fast turning into Turkey, albeit with an interchangeable talking head as president.
Never mind, in 50 years or so you'll all be crushed under the Chinese steamroller, though only if they can work out how to build them without important parts falling off first. Thank fuck I'll be dead.
(Score: 2) by urza9814 on Monday November 21 2016, @10:44PM
Funny, I thought the Constitution was all about "We the people", not "We the largely unpopulated landmasses".
Land doesn't vote, people do. Owning a big farm should not give you more influence in our government. Nor should owning a large corporation for that matter. Unfortunately we still need to fix both of those problems...
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Monday November 21 2016, @11:59PM
That is why our government is set up the way it is. Land doesn't get a vote. Each state gets two senators. The people get a congressman for x amount of people. The people get to elect one president, through the electoral college. That electoral college has been doing it's thing for quite a long while now.
Now, we have one spoiled rich bitch who didn't win that vote - so the vote is all wrong?
I'll be fair here. If I were backing one particular candidate, and put all my heart and soul into that candidate's election - I might cry foul as well. I might even throw a tantrum, and scream "It ain't fair it ain't fair it ain't fair!"
Then again, I might not.
The system is what the system is. The fact that you lost doesn't mean the system is wrong.
(Score: 2) by urza9814 on Tuesday November 22 2016, @09:14PM
The bit that I quoted and was replying to implied that Hillary wasn't as popular because her supporters are "a couple larger islands, and several smaller islands, in a sea of red". But that ignores the fact that those "islands" are where the vast, vast majority of the nation actually lives. The fact that the land is "red" doesn't mean a damn thing if that land is empty.
My point is not that the system is hopelessly screwed (although it *is* pretty bad...) -- my point is just that it's kind of absurd to claim your candidate was more "popular" just because he won the most empty fields. He lost the popular vote by a rather large margin.