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posted by janrinok on Saturday November 19 2016, @04:12PM   Printer-friendly
from the statistics-or-lies? dept.

Scott Alexander gives a great breakdown of Trump and how the portrayal of him as being "openly white supremacist" is probably (likely) wrong.

I stick to my thesis from October 2015. There is no evidence that Donald Trump is more racist than any past Republican candidate (or any other 70 year old white guy, for that matter). All this stuff about how he's "the candidate of the KKK" and "the vanguard of a new white supremacist movement" is made up. It's a catastrophic distraction from the dozens of other undeniable problems with Trump that could have convinced voters to abandon him. That it came to dominate the election cycle should be considered a horrifying indictment of our political discourse, in the same way that it would be a horrifying indictment of our political discourse if the entire Republican campaign had been based around the theory that Hillary Clinton was a secret Satanist. Yes, calling Romney a racist was crying wolf. But you are still crying wolf.

I avoided pushing this point any more since last October because I didn't want to look like I was supporting Trump, or accidentally convince anyone else to support Trump. But since we're past the point where that matters any more, I want to present my case.

He further states: "I realize that all of this is going to make me sound like a crazy person and put me completely at odds with every respectable thinker in the media, but luckily, being a crazy person at odds with every respectable thinker in the media has been a pretty good ticket to predictive accuracy lately, so whatever."

So do his claims hold up under scrutiny, is he manipulating the figures, or is he just a 'crazy person' ?


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  • (Score: 4, Insightful) by Arik on Saturday November 19 2016, @05:45PM

    by Arik (4543) on Saturday November 19 2016, @05:45PM (#429488) Journal
    It's not a race, you're right.

    It's a religion. Free exercise of religion, and freedom of conscience, are fundamental core American values. Saying "it's fair game to discriminate" against a religion is dangerous. Perhaps you parse it very narrowly and in a way that can be harmonized, but even if you do, your reader cannot be expected to understand that from what you wrote.

    --
    If laughter is the best medicine, who are the best doctors?
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  • (Score: 3, Flamebait) by The Mighty Buzzard on Saturday November 19 2016, @06:00PM

    by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@proton.me> on Saturday November 19 2016, @06:00PM (#429495) Homepage Journal

    True, the problem is if you are remotely good at being Islamic, you are a horrible person by western values and values can and absolutely should be discriminated against because they are a large part of what decide our actions. By "western values" in this case I mean egalitarianism, tolerance, and peacefulness. None of which are found within the religion of Islam as it is largely practiced in the world.

    --
    My rights don't end where your fear begins.
    • (Score: 1, Flamebait) by The Mighty Buzzard on Saturday November 19 2016, @06:41PM

      by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@proton.me> on Saturday November 19 2016, @06:41PM (#429533) Homepage Journal

      Objectively true and stated in a civil manner but gets modded Flamebait? Please don't make me link to the "YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH" clip.

      --
      My rights don't end where your fear begins.
      • (Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:23PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:23PM (#429557)

        Your surprise is a big part of the problem. You have beliefs that are extreme, one might call you an extremist! But hey, lots of old people also have "a good friend who is black" so you'll probably have company if you go work for a retirement home.

        Every time I've been modded flamebait I'm forced to think about and I've always said "yup, deserved". Try imagining you can be wrong?

        • (Score: 1, Troll) by The Mighty Buzzard on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:28PM

          by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@proton.me> on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:28PM (#429560) Homepage Journal

          Not surprise. Annoyance that people still downmod things they simply disagree with. If I am attempting to be civil and have a civil discussion, my posts are not within the definition of Flamebait. Neither Troll. It is simply a bad moderation.

          --
          My rights don't end where your fear begins.
        • (Score: 5, Interesting) by linkdude64 on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:52PM

          by linkdude64 (5482) on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:52PM (#429575)

          " You have beliefs that are extreme, one might call you an extremist! "

          This is problem with liberals. You think that people on the political right are extremists. You literally think that having an opinion - even an outright racist one - is extremism.

          No.

          If you would like, I will link you a video demonstrating extremism. The heads of dozens of kneeling people with black bags over their heads getting sawn off - right in front of your eyes, in HD quality, because they are not the "right kind of Muslim."

          THAT is extremism, and YOU ARE CRYING WOLF just like the article states. If you would like to see the meaning of your words, I will show it to you.

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 20 2016, @03:14AM

            by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 20 2016, @03:14AM (#429772)

            I'm sure that is what a lot of people said before the Nazis carted them off. "Don't worry, they just don't want us here. They'll take us somewhere till they have somewhere to send us!"

            Taking this stuff lightly is not an option for me, and it is sad that you consider it a viable path. You even offer to behead me, that right there shows your mental state. I may be crying wolf, but that's just cause the wolf is hiding in his granny costume pretending to care about all the tasty people.

            Or was I supposed to know that was just "guy talk"?

            • (Score: 2) by linkdude64 on Sunday November 20 2016, @03:43PM

              by linkdude64 (5482) on Sunday November 20 2016, @03:43PM (#429921)

              "You even offer to behead me, that right there shows your mental state."

              NEVER would I do that to somebody. I would rather shoot myself or cut my own throat than saw the head off of a disarmed person. The true extremists would not - and I can show you a VIDEO of that as empirical evidence - I never once meant to threaten you. Only to educate you as to what extremism actually is.

              • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 20 2016, @06:29PM

                by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 20 2016, @06:29PM (#429990)

                Well in case you haven't been paying attention, there are extremists on both sides. Maybe not up to beheading people on camera, but violence has been done to liberals and conservatives. Many people have advocated violence this election cycle, and while much of it is hot air (such as you) it is impossible to tell when someone will snap and make good on their threats.

                My original extremist comment was a bit tongue in cheek to point how the irony how most that dislike Muslims are themselves on the path to prejudice and extremism.

              • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Sunday November 20 2016, @07:19PM

                by FatPhil (863) <reversethis-{if.fdsa} {ta} {tnelyos-cp}> on Sunday November 20 2016, @07:19PM (#430016) Homepage
                Have you ever had a seemingly moderate and seemingly reasonable muslim threaten to kill you if you finish the sentence where you explain why you became an atheist?

                I have.

                "If you finish that sentence I will have to kill you" were his exact words. In disbelief I let one more word out, and he immediately repeated his threat. I stopped cold. I could see he actually meant it. Would you call that extremist behaviour?

                You see, even the seemingly moderate and seemingly reasonable muslims have a dangerous psychopathy and sociopathy, because their religion obliges them.
                --
                Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
                • (Score: 2) by linkdude64 on Sunday November 20 2016, @08:09PM

                  by linkdude64 (5482) on Sunday November 20 2016, @08:09PM (#430043)

                  "Have you ever had a seemingly moderate and seemingly reasonable muslim threaten to kill you if you finish the sentence where you explain why you became an atheist?"

                  No, but estimates of muslim extremists worldwide are held at an estimated 15%-25%. With a worldwide muslim population of almost 2 billion, that is a huge number. Even if you are lying, there is statistical certainty that hundreds of millions of people around the world have had that exact same experience.

                  Fools think that violent minorities are not enough to cause problems - that focus must be kept on how peaceful the majority are.

                  Tell that to the majority of peaceful Germans in Nazi Germany. Or to the majority of peaceful Russians during their revolutions which killed tens of millions. Or to the peaceful Japanese majority as the minority butchered their way across southeast Asia.

                  Radical Islamic Terrorism is a global threat, because Radical Islamic Terrorists are seeding themselves all around the world and gathering resources - especially in the European countries that are essentially committing suicide.

              • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 21 2016, @09:16AM

                by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 21 2016, @09:16AM (#430409)

                I never once meant to threaten you. Only to educate you as to what extremism actually is.

                Oh, great, now I am really, really scared. That is what the extremists always say, just before they cut off your head.

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 20 2016, @05:03AM

            by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 20 2016, @05:03AM (#429803)

            " You have beliefs that are extreme, one might call you an extremist! "

            This is problem with liberals. You think that people on the political right are extremists. You literally think that having an opinion - even an outright racist one - is extremism.

            Sorry to burst your bubble, but in my opinion if you are still harbouring racist views in the 21st century then you are an extremist. And I'm not a liberal. Now, according to the First Amendment, you are allowed to have those views and gather together with like-minded individuals who share your views. But that in no way protects you from the neighbours calling you and your racist friends out as extremist assholes. That's not how the First Amendment works.

            • (Score: 2) by linkdude64 on Sunday November 20 2016, @03:45PM

              by linkdude64 (5482) on Sunday November 20 2016, @03:45PM (#429923)

              You misunderstand - you have every right to call me an extremist, but we would then only be extremists relative to Western civilization. That is a relative scale.

              On an absolute scale, we would be extremely moderate, because of the "real" extremists for whom genocide of those who you disagree with - within your own religion - is acceptable.

              Even the KKK doesn't kill people anymore. That alone should say something about them compared to ISIS.

    • (Score: 4, Informative) by Arik on Saturday November 19 2016, @06:53PM

      by Arik (4543) on Saturday November 19 2016, @06:53PM (#429540) Journal
      "None of which are found within the religion of Islam as it is largely practiced in the world."

      The only thing that saves that statement from being a bald-faced lie, of course, is the caveat at the end.

      But even if what you are saying isn't completely and utterly incorrect, what you are doing is picking up, endorsing, amplifying the claims of the very people I am sure you think you are against. Islam encompasses many schools, many traditions. Most of them very different from the picture you paint of them. One group, a group that was small, despised, without power or influence a century ago, matches your picture. The UK foolishly gave them control of the Muslim holy sites and the Arabian oil fields (and the US confirmed and extended the policy to this very day,) and they've been using those gifts to promote their own view worldwide since, and they've grown powerful and influential enough to be a serious problem, most seriously for other muslims of course.

      They are the enemy here - not Islam in general, just this one strain of it. They hope to polarize, to create a world where the west as a whole makes exactly the mistake you make here - giving their claims credence, endorsing them as 'real Islam' is absolutely playing into their hands. They want all the other Muslims to feel so hated, so downtrodden, so trapped, that they have no other choice but to join the jihadis, and the narrative you are pushing is exactly the one they want us to accept for that reason.

      --
      If laughter is the best medicine, who are the best doctors?
      • (Score: 4, Insightful) by The Mighty Buzzard on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:06PM

        by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@proton.me> on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:06PM (#429548) Homepage Journal

        The only thing that saves that statement from being a bald-faced lie, of course, is the caveat at the end.

        And yet the end of it does make it objectively and provably true. Which is why I typed it.

        just this one strain of it

        No, there are several different yet similarly violent strains of it currently dominating the Middle East and other areas where Islam is the majority religion. But that's me being a bit pedantic. It is not simply those in power who are pushing for Islamic domination through violence. It is quite popularly supported among the people on the street of Islamic nations as well, last I checked.

        Were they convinced of this by those in power or would they have been of the same opinion left to their own devices? It doesn't matter. Their current views are what is relevant. Passive support of the destruction of all that is not Islam is not as dangerous as outright jihadism but it still should not be allowed within our borders willingly.

        --
        My rights don't end where your fear begins.
        • (Score: 2) by Arik on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:15PM

          by Arik (4543) on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:15PM (#429553) Journal
          "Were they convinced of this by those in power or would they have been of the same opinion left to their own devices? It doesn't matter."

          It doesn't matter, really?

          :?

          <sarc>No, no, of course not, understanding why something is happening has nothing to do with formulating effective plans to stop it. What was I thinking? </sarc>
          --
          If laughter is the best medicine, who are the best doctors?
          • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:25PM

            by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:25PM (#429559)

            Welcome to conversing with a true believer.

          • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:31PM

            by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@proton.me> on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:31PM (#429561) Homepage Journal

            It doesn't matter, really?

            For the purposes of deciding to allow or disallow immigration, no, it does not. Much like the reason behind a bus is speeding towards you is irrelevant until you are out of its path. What would be relevant is that a bus is speeding towards you.

            --
            My rights don't end where your fear begins.
            • (Score: 2, Insightful) by Arik on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:53PM

              by Arik (4543) on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:53PM (#429576) Journal
              So your logic is that some Muslims are terrorists, therefore no Muslims should be allowed to immigrate? And to hell with the US Constitution! - really?

              I'll go you one better. Some people are terrorists, therefore no people should be allowed to immigrate again. My plan doesn't make any more sense than yours does in terms of solving terrorism, but at least it's not so directly inconsistent with the Constitution.

              Seems you're smart enough to realize there's a problem but still don't understand the importance of diagnosing a problem correctly before you prescribe a solution. 'Just do something' is a foolish motto. All too often, those who are the quickest to 'do something' do the wrong damn thing and make it worse. Sometimes, quite often actually, an attack is not really about the damage it does. It's about provoking a specific reaction. Giving them the reaction they seek is not such a great strategy.

              --
              If laughter is the best medicine, who are the best doctors?
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @08:25PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @08:25PM (#429599)

        Caveat? Actions is what is real.

    • (Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 20 2016, @12:24AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 20 2016, @12:24AM (#429719)

      > the problem is if you are remotely good at being Islamic, you are a horrible person by western values

      Oh shut the fuck up already. You dumbass okie who has never met a muslim in your entire life.
      I grew up in Dewey, but then I got the fuck out of dumbassistan and actually met real people who were from other places.
      And you know what? They are all the same. Most all of them are decent. They just want to live their lives like anyone else.

      The idea that you can't be a good muslim unless you are like ISIS is total fuckwadery
      That's what ISIS says. Nobody fucking likes ISIS least of all other muslims.
      That's like saying you can't be a christian unless you live like the Lord Resistances Army.
      Being muslim isn't defined by what the worst muslim thinks their religion is.
      So stop collaborating with the enemy.

  • (Score: 4, Informative) by bradley13 on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:12PM

    by bradley13 (3053) on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:12PM (#429551) Homepage Journal

    Free exercise of religion, and freedom of conscience, are fundamental core American values

    Well, no. Just as an example: if your religion requires you to practice cannibalism, you will find your freedom rather severely restricted.

    The problem with Islam, or at least the branches of it that concern us, is this: They believe that theirs is the only valid religion, and that they are commanded to convert or slay everyone else (do note: this includes other muslims). Islam (by which I mean this fundamentalist branch of the muslim faith), is incompatible with Western values. Simple self-preservation requires that we ban this barbaric ideology. Adherents are welcome to live out their lives in their own countries, but they have no place in ours.

    --
    Everyone is somebody else's weirdo.
    • (Score: 5, Insightful) by Arik on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:18PM

      by Arik (4543) on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:18PM (#429555) Journal
      "Islam (by which I mean this fundamentalist branch of the muslim faith)"

      People (by which I mean this one really rude guy at work)...

      The mind boggles. If you don't mean Islam then quit saying Islam.

      The word you are looking for is Wahhabism.
      --
      If laughter is the best medicine, who are the best doctors?
      • (Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @10:15PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @10:15PM (#429647)

        ...and it's worth mentioning that the chief purveyor of that radical brand of Islam is valued USA.gov "ally"[1] Saudi Arabia (think: religious police).

        [1] This "ally" also finances IS/ISIL/ISIS/Daesch.

        -- OriginalOwner_ [soylentnews.org]

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:36PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @07:36PM (#429563)

    Free exercise of religion, and freedom of conscience, are fundamental core American values. Saying "it's fair game to discriminate" against a religion is dangerous.

    Glad you feel that way. People are such a bigots hating on us peaceful Khornites for wanting to chop off their heads upon the field of battle as a ritual of worshiping our lord and savior [wikia.com].

    Chaos Undivided is the religion of peace, especially Khorne, the god of war and violence.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @08:31PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 19 2016, @08:31PM (#429601)

      qualifies as a cult, like Scientology :)

      Games Workshop certainly acts like Scientology's leadership.

  • (Score: 2) by Reziac on Sunday November 20 2016, @03:45AM

    by Reziac (2489) on Sunday November 20 2016, @03:45AM (#429785) Homepage

    TMB is right. Islam is mostly an ideology and political system, with a small dab of religion stuck on sideways. For enlightenment, check out Bill Warner's videos (Political Islam on Youtube).

    And it's entirely fair and reasonable to discriminate against an ideology, especially one that flat out states its goal is to destroy everything that doesn't submit to it.

    --
    And there is no Alkibiades to come back and save us from ourselves.