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... if you ask actual manufacturing executives, they're far more bullish on America's future than many of its political leaders. On Thursday, professional services firm Deloitte teamed up with the Council on Competitiveness to release its 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index, showing that the United States is the second most competitive manufacturing economy after China. What's more, global manufacturing executives predict that by 2020, the United States will be the most competitive manufacturing economy in the world.
So why has the United States been shooting up the ranks? Long gone are the days when cheap labor was the most important input for manufacturers. Total manufacturing employment in China peaked during the 1990s and has been falling ever since. And as manufacturing continues to reduce the number of workers needed, the important ingredients to success in the sector are whether advanced technologies and materials are available, and whether or not intellectual property protections are strong. The United States beats out China on both of these scores.
This is not to say that anxiety over the decline of manufacturing employment is misguided. While it's good that manufacturing firms think that the United States is a great place to do business, their success in America will not have the same impact, in terms of providing a huge number of well-paying jobs, as they did a half-century ago.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday January 01 2017, @05:25PM
You've completely missed the point.
Farming efficiency is way, way up. Much of that is due to mechanization.
Just like manufacturing - since NAFTA, output has increased 70% [stlouisfed.org] while at the same time the sector shed 4.5 million jobs.
The "natural economic process" Forbes was referring to is that as sectors become more efficient they require less people for the equivalent amount of work. Its pretty much right there in the words you quoted. This isn't a biased viewpoint, its a well-known, totally uncontroversial observation. Its why the future is a service economy. Not because we "don't make stuff anymore" - we make way more stuff than we ever did. But because we make stuff much more efficiently. So its only natural that the parts of the economy that don't get more efficient end up consuming more spending.
You want job security? Do something that can't be easily automated - plumbing, cooking, nursing, performing, etc.
(Score: 2) by butthurt on Monday January 02 2017, @03:03AM
> Do something that can't be easily automated - [...] cooking [...]
Perhaps you mean gourmet cooking? Some cooking processes have been successfully automated. Ever eaten canned food? I assume you're aware of the Automat restaurants; one firm even hopes its robots will make gourmet hamburgers:
San Francisco start-up company Momentum Machines, Inc., has set out to fully automate the production of gourmet-quality hamburgers. Whereas a fast food worker might toss a frozen patty onto the grill, Momentum Machines’ device shapes burgers from freshly ground meat and then grills them to order—including even the ability to add just the right amount of char while retaining all the juices. The machine, which is capable of producing about 360 hamburgers per hour, also toasts the bun and then slices and adds fresh ingredients like tomatoes, onions, and pickles only after the order is placed. Burgers arrive assembled and ready to serve on a conveyer belt.
-- https://www.salon.com/2015/05/10/robots_are_coming_for_your_job_amazon_mcdonalds_and_the_next_wave_of_dangerous_capitalist_disruption/ [salon.com]
Someone wrote in Wikipedia without a citation:
Food manufacturers utilize industrial metal detectors to detect and reject automatically any metal fragment. Large food processors will utilize many metal detectors within the processing stream to reduce both damage to processing machinery as well as risk to consumer health.
-- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_processing [wikipedia.org]
It checks out: a variety of metal detectors and separators for food processing are indeed on the market.
http://www.foremostmachine.com/metaldetectorsfood.htm [foremostmachine.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 02 2017, @06:12AM
What I didn't mean was industrial food processing.
Kinda thought that was obvious.
But then again, I'm not Literal Guy.
(Score: 2) by butthurt on Monday January 02 2017, @08:56AM
> What I didn't mean was industrial food processing.
I assumed you didn't. Yet, in industrialised countries, industrially cooked foods are commonplace. Also common are foods that have been processed in a way that minimises the skill needed to prepare them. Those are even served at many restaurants. And since you've invited me to be literal, I'll mention that the literal process of cooking--raising the temperature of food in a controlled fashion--is among the tasks that are commonly automated, both in homes and in restaurants.
Creating an artistic dish is another matter--but one chef can, conceivably, design something to be mass-produced.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 03 2017, @04:37AM
> I assumed you didn't. Yet,
Yet you wasted two whole posts arguing as if I had.
What is wrong with you?
(Score: 1) by butthurt on Tuesday January 03 2017, @07:24AM
Not at all. I assumed the poster I was replying to hadn't considered the facts I mentioned. I mentioned them so they could be considered--if not by that poster, by other readers.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 02 2017, @03:20PM
http://pacificdrain.com/service/robotic-cleaning/ [pacificdrain.com]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/18/robot-chefs_n_1601634.html [huffingtonpost.com]
http://cs.stanford.edu/people/eroberts/cs181/projects/2010-11/ComputersMakingDecisions/robotic-nurses/index.html [stanford.edu]
https://www.wengercorp.com/performance/robot-performers/ [wengercorp.com]
Even if robots could only help a human be more efficient (a plumber gets the job done faster with a robot snake, a performer uses robot backup singers) that still significantly reduces the need for humans in these professions and also reduces the need for apprentices, closing the on ramp into these professions.