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Transportation accounts for a huge portion of US carbon emissions. As recently as 2014, it was behind the electricity sector — 26 percent of US emissions to electricity's 30 percent. But as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) just confirmed, as of 2016, they have crossed paths. "Electric power sector CO2 emissions," EIA writes, "are now regularly below transportation sector CO2 emissions for the first time since the late 1970s."
This is happening because power sector "carbon intensity" — carbon emissions per unit of energy produced — is falling, as coal is replaced with natural gas, renewables, and efficiency.
The only realistic prospect for reducing transportation sector emissions rapidly and substantially is electrification. How much market share EVs take from oil (gasoline is by far the most common use for oil in the US) will matter a great deal.
[...] Today saw the release of a new study from the Grantham Institute for Imperial College London and the Carbon Tracker Initiative. It argues that solar photovoltaics (PV) and EVs together will kick fossil fuel's ass, quickly.
"Falling costs of electric vehicle and solar technology," they conclude, "could halt growth in global demand for oil and coal from 2020." That would be a pretty big deal.
The "business as usual" (BAU) scenarios that typically dominate these discussions are outdated, the researchers argue. New baseline scenarios should take into account updated information on PV, EV, and battery costs. (The EIA doesn't expect inflation-adjusted prices of EVs to fall to $30,000 until 2030, even as multiple automakers say they'll hit that within a few years.)
[...] If these forecasts play out, fossil fuels could lose 10 percent market share to PV and EVs within a decade. A 10 percent loss in market share was enough to send the US coal industry spiraling, enough to cause Europe's utilities to hemorrhage money. It could seriously disrupt life for the oil majors. "Growth in EVs alone could lead to 2 million barrels of oil per day being displaced by 2025," the study says, "the same volume that caused the oil price collapse in 2014-15."
Source: http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/2/2/14467748/electric-vehicles-oil-market
(Score: 2) by Snotnose on Saturday February 04 2017, @05:25AM
Live alone, have a gas car. A couple times a year I take road trips. I can fill my tank in 5 minutes. If an electric car can't charge in, call it 10 minutes, I'm not gonna be buying one.
That said, for 90% of my driving an electric would be fine. Except, oops, my apartment complex has nowhere to plug my car into. I guess I could shop at Kohl's for a couple hours a week, but why would I do that except to charge my car?
When the dust settled America realized it was saved by a porn star.
(Score: 2, Informative) by Ethanol-fueled on Saturday February 04 2017, @05:36AM
You can pry my manual transmission from my cold, dead hands, motherfucker.
(Score: 2) by Snotnose on Saturday February 04 2017, @05:44AM
I actually went auto tranny (fun fact: lots of websites convert t r a n n y into something else) when I bought my current car. Can't say I miss it. Drove manuals since '74, when I turned 16 and dad trained me on his Subaru. Last time I nailed the brakes was maybe 5 years ago. Coming up to a red light, went to downshift, left foot floored the brakes, glad the guy behind me didn't read end me.
Yeah, there are times I miss my manual. But driving in stop and go traffic with my coffee in one hand and my phone in the other, I'm good.
When the dust settled America realized it was saved by a porn star.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Saturday February 04 2017, @03:06PM
That's funny.
I've been driving just a couple years longer than you. I learned on manuals - everything from farm tractors, and hay trucks, to family cars, to tractor trailers. Naturally, I've swapped from auto to manual many times. I can't count the times I've climbed into an automatic vehicle, and stomped on the clutch. I've never hit the brakes though - I just stomp a dent in the floor where the clutch should have been. You can imagine the looks I've got from passengers. ;^)
(Score: 3, Insightful) by mcgrew on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:07PM
But driving in stop and go traffic with my coffee in one hand and my phone in the other, I'm good.
Yes, you probably do so when you're drunk, as well, because using a cell phone while driving is as dangerous as driving drunk. You, sir, are an idiot, as is everyone else who uses a phone while driving. Leave the damned phone in your pocket. If you absolutely MUST use it, get off the highway and stop the damn car first. Stop endangering everyone else with your rank stupidity.
mcgrewbooks.com mcgrew.info nooze.org
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday February 05 2017, @03:19PM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @08:24PM
:-) I hope you burn your balls and get brain cancer!
But seriously, the weather... The left foot is for the clutch and the brights only. It should never be even near the brakes. (Not that you have much choice in an Italian car...And there's a special place in hell for those who teach left foot braking). The new automatics can be operated semi-manually now. They are totally hip.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @05:51AM
One of each -- live in the 'burbs and have two older cars. One a manual and the other automatic, choose the right tool for the job.
(Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:30AM
If an electric car can't charge in, call it 10 minutes, I'm not gonna be buying one.
Your fault for being stupid, I guess. Your car sits around doing absolutely nothing all night long when it could be charging. But its the experience man! If you aren't standing there hand-feeding it electricity, its just not american!!!
Except, oops, my apartment complex has nowhere to plug my car into.
So? The only thing stopping them from providing chargers is a lack of demand.
Once there are enough electrics on the road, the demand to equip apartment parking with chargers will fix that.
It isn't like people will have to charge every day, new model electrics get 200+ miles per charge and over half of the commutes in the US are less than 20 miles round-trip, so charging once a week is more than enough.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Snotnose on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:42AM
You don't get the apartment market. They ain't ever gonna offer electric charging unless they can advertise "Electric car Charging!!" In which case they will offer 1 charging station and bump the rent up 50% for all 100 units in the apartment complex.
When the dust settled America realized it was saved by a porn star.
(Score: 0, Disagree) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:45AM
It isn't like people will have to charge every day
You have not been around other people much have you? At one apt complex we ended up having to have assigned spaces because some people would just park across 3 and call it a day. Or have 8 cars and go 'what? they are free I pay for the rent'. You think there wouldnt be people camped out at the outlets?
over half of the commutes in the US are less than 20 miles round-trip
The other half are not. I know at least a few dozen people that commute 80+ miles per day just to have a job.
You are making excuses. Look right now today (not in the future, right now) there are not enough chargers. The infrastructure of your typical condo complex NOT up to the task of several hundred extra mega watts being used every night. Most of these dudes pitch a fucking fit just giving you better internet access much less 200-300 220v+ electric plugs. Then on the other end most places do not have the things.
Then on top of that most places have this thing called weather. Meaning they will need to be maintained. Having dealt with many landlords fixing something is not at the top of their list unless they are made to do it. Many are an extra special kind of miserly bastard that makes ebinizer scrooge seem like a saint.
If there were chargers everywhere and they were decently fast (10-20 mis tops) and there was 1 gas station in the state I would probably would not get an ICE and say 'it is a dumb thing to get'. But right now it is the other way around.
(Score: 2) by Snotnose on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:47AM
The stupid, it hurst. The copy paste fails big time here.
If an electric car can't charge in, call it 10 minutes, I'm not gonna be buying one.
Your fault for being stupid, I guess. Your car sits around doing absolutely nothing all night long when it could be charging. But its the experience man! If you aren't standing there hand-feeding it electricity, its just not american!!!
I do a road trip wtice a year. Bathroom break, refuel the car, 5 minutes. Electrice is much longer, like an hour. Car is not sitting outside doing nothing, it is transporting me to somewhere to where I wanna be.
Except, oops, my apartment complex has nowhere to plug my car into.
So? The only thing stopping them from providing chargers is a lack of demand.
You have no clue to apartment living, do you? Management doesn't care about charging stations. They care about how fast they can jack up rent. Trust me, they add a charging station and rent will double.
Once there are enough electrics on the road, the demand to equip apartment parking with chargers will fix that.
It isn't like people will have to charge every day, new model electrics get 200+ miles per charge and over half of the commutes in the US are less than 20 miles round-trip, so charging once a week is more than enough.
You are a fucking moron with no idea of the real life situations of people with cars. Kindly fuck off.
When the dust settled America realized it was saved by a porn star.
(Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:59AM
> The stupid, it hurst. The copy paste fails big time here.
Is that a confession? Because yeah, someone who can't even manage to put a ">" character in front of the lines he's quoting has no business screaming his head off that someone else is a "fucking moron."
> Trust me, they add a charging station and rent will double.
No, I'm not going to trust you. You are the one who just confessed to be to being so stupid it "hurst."
Charging stations would be profit centers for apartments. They would charge people money to use them.
> I do a road trip wtice a year.
So rent a gas car you dumbshit. Its only twice a year and you avoid putting a ton of miles on your car.
> You are a fucking moron with no idea of the real life situations of people with cars.
Yeah, because I don't own and drive a car myself.
Lol you really have no business calling anyone a moron.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Saturday February 04 2017, @01:22PM
So rent a gas car you dumbshit. Its only twice a year and you avoid putting a ton of miles on your car.
My daily driver is a one and a half ton Yaris commuter vehicle (basically a stripped down Toyota) (which makes me wonder about the original OPs assertion that SUVs are 2+ tons, try more like 4+ tons for a big duallie pickup truck)
Anyway people sometimes freak out about it, but it can carry a hell of a lot more than you'd think, and I rent the home depot pickup truck for $25 or whatever it is about twice a year when I need 100 pound bags of landscaping WTF or bricks or sheets of plywood for a woodworking project. The rent for the truck is about the cost of three days of the car loan payment, insurance, repairs, for buying one of my own, so as long as I rent it less than twice a week I'm ahead financially. They rent it a couple times per day so they're making piles of cash while I'm saving piles.
And my coworker blew the engine of a giant SUV rental in rural nowhere ville Texas and an hour later the rental company had her in a new rental on her way. Imagine if that were her car broken down in the middle of nowhere, the mechanic would screw her so bad it would make bondage pr0n look gentle. Its foolish to take your own car on a road trip.
I can't eat "real food" in less than the time it takes a modern EV to quick charge. I could fast for 16 hours just to make some kind of point, but naaah I don't think so.
You get what you pay for with apartments, I have a SiL who always nickel and dimed and she did save like $50/mo on me, but oh god the complaining I had to hear about her slumlord properties. Someone who can afford a brand new car probably is in the upper reaches of rental economy. Poor renters aren't going to get hand-me-down electrics for a decade or so.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Saturday February 04 2017, @03:36PM
Your figure of 4+ tons didn't sound right. I did a quick search, I'm satisfied with the Ford F-350 as an example. How about 3 tons for a typical one ton dually? 3 3/4 for the extra heavy duty four wheel drive model. Yeah, that's a lot of weight - close to four tons anyway. Most of the cars I've owned in the past 20 years are between 3100 and 3500 pounds. That makes for a huge difference in fuel expenses.
http://www.holidayfordusa.com/blog/how-much-does-the-2016-ford-f-350-weigh/ [holidayfordusa.com]
2016 F-350 XL
Curb Weight 6,010 lbs.
GVWR 10,000 lbs.
GCWR 19,000 lbs.
Towing 12,500 lbs.
Payload 3,920 lbs.
2016 F-350 Lariat
Curb Weight 7,460 lbs.
GVWR 14,000 lbs.
GCWR 19,500 lbs.
Towing 12,100 lbs.
Payload 6,460 lbs.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by charon on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:50AM
This is sort of accurate. As I found out when I bought mine, mileage is important, but so is elevation. Straight line distance from apartment to work is about 3 miles, but I use ~5 miles worth of charge because of hills. Yes, even with regenerative braking at it's highest possible level.
I live in an apartment and park on the street so I have no way to charge except at work. I knew this going into my purchase. Charging overnight would be ideal for me, but like a lot of people it's not possible. The very fastest charging option available to my car would restore ~100 miles of range in an hour, and these are the least common charging points. I concur that increased adoption will also increase charger locations. But we're not there yet.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday February 05 2017, @02:08AM
My commute is 80 miles round trip, and when I left for work this morning, it was about 13 degrees F outside (some of us actually live in places where having heat during the winter is important - heat is free with an ICE, but it's going to drain battery in an EV). I don't have anywhere to charge my car at work, so in a best case scenario, by the time I get home, I have 120 miles left on your proposed 200 mile charge. I live around 100 miles away from my disabled mother and my young nieces. Occasionally, I end up having go there for an unplanned emergency.
Again, in that best case scenario, I just make it there, and then I'm stuck waiting how long for it to charge for the 100 mile ride home? If I don't have enough gas for my ICE, it'll take under 5 minutes to refuel...
I'm single and can afford one vehicle... that vehicle needs to be able to fit my all-purpose, every day needs. Yes, I can (and have) rent a truck for the rare occasion that I'm planning to buy something large at a store, but I need something that I know is going to take care of my unplanned, yet likely, needs.
I'm sure an EV could work for a lot of people, but, instead of calling people stupid, maybe you should realize that you're pretty ignorant yourself?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 06 2017, @04:07AM
> My commute is 80 miles round trip
That puts you in the 99% percentile for commuters.
If you think anything about your personal circumstances applies to this conversation then you are more than ignorant and stupid.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:31AM
You can't spare 5 minutes every now and then to help save the planet for future generations? Selfish prick.
(Score: 1) by charon on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:35AM
(Score: 2) by hemocyanin on Saturday February 04 2017, @01:37PM
Two car family -- one gas, one is a 2012 Leaf (which BTW, is way more fun to drive than an econobox deserves to be -- electrics, even puny ones like the Leaf, have zoom). I go as far on 60 cents of electricity as $3 in gas takes me (24 miles).
While I agree that electrics aren't for everyone, it seems the prejudice against them is irrational. 99% of the driving we do can be handled by a low range aging electric car. If I could convince my wife that renting a gas car for the remaining 1% is perfectly feasible -- and for whatever reason, laying out the math which shows it to be a money saver, doesn't work -- we could be all electric.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:08PM
The price on used Leafs has taken a real hit recently. You can find 2 year old leafs with less than 20K miles on them for under $10K. [craigslist.org]
Leafs with 40K mileage are less than $7K. I suspect that's due in part to the Chevy Bolt hitting the market with its 200 mile range. I bet that when the tesla model E comes out later this year it will be another big hit to used leaf prices.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by hemocyanin on Saturday February 04 2017, @07:50PM
Yeah -- if you are the type of person that switches cars frequently, an electric is probably a bad investment at this point because the technology is moving so fast. When I got mine, I consciously decided to think of it more like an electronic gadget than a car, but since I tend to keep my cars for a long time I decided not to be concerned about depreciation and to just be happy with fun driving and extremely low maintenance.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @09:41PM
I meant the reverse.
Used electrics are super affordable. The kind of person who drives a car into the ground is probably totally fine buying used. I'm 15 years in on my isuzu which I bought used. I'm going to try to hold out until fall and see if I can pick up a top-line leaf with leather, bose and surround cameras for under $8K.