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posted by on Saturday February 04 2017, @05:15AM   Printer-friendly
from the looking-forward-to-electric-planes dept.

Transportation accounts for a huge portion of US carbon emissions. As recently as 2014, it was behind the electricity sector — 26 percent of US emissions to electricity's 30 percent. But as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) just confirmed, as of 2016, they have crossed paths. "Electric power sector CO2 emissions," EIA writes, "are now regularly below transportation sector CO2 emissions for the first time since the late 1970s."

This is happening because power sector "carbon intensity" — carbon emissions per unit of energy produced — is falling, as coal is replaced with natural gas, renewables, and efficiency.

The only realistic prospect for reducing transportation sector emissions rapidly and substantially is electrification. How much market share EVs take from oil (gasoline is by far the most common use for oil in the US) will matter a great deal.

[...] Today saw the release of a new study from the Grantham Institute for Imperial College London and the Carbon Tracker Initiative. It argues that solar photovoltaics (PV) and EVs together will kick fossil fuel's ass, quickly.

"Falling costs of electric vehicle and solar technology," they conclude, "could halt growth in global demand for oil and coal from 2020." That would be a pretty big deal.

The "business as usual" (BAU) scenarios that typically dominate these discussions are outdated, the researchers argue. New baseline scenarios should take into account updated information on PV, EV, and battery costs. (The EIA doesn't expect inflation-adjusted prices of EVs to fall to $30,000 until 2030, even as multiple automakers say they'll hit that within a few years.)

[...] If these forecasts play out, fossil fuels could lose 10 percent market share to PV and EVs within a decade. A 10 percent loss in market share was enough to send the US coal industry spiraling, enough to cause Europe's utilities to hemorrhage money. It could seriously disrupt life for the oil majors. "Growth in EVs alone could lead to 2 million barrels of oil per day being displaced by 2025," the study says, "the same volume that caused the oil price collapse in 2014-15."

Source: http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/2/2/14467748/electric-vehicles-oil-market


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  • (Score: 1) by charon on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:35AM

    by charon (5660) on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:35AM (#462777) Journal
    I have an all electric car, and while it works really well for me, I can absolutely see it not working for a lot of others. I drive maybe 10 miles a day, so I don't have to charge often. My boss lets me charge at work when I need to. The road trip and charge speed issues must be solved. But once they are, I think EV ownership will explode (figuratively).
  • (Score: 2) by hemocyanin on Saturday February 04 2017, @01:37PM

    by hemocyanin (186) on Saturday February 04 2017, @01:37PM (#462835) Journal

    Two car family -- one gas, one is a 2012 Leaf (which BTW, is way more fun to drive than an econobox deserves to be -- electrics, even puny ones like the Leaf, have zoom). I go as far on 60 cents of electricity as $3 in gas takes me (24 miles).

    While I agree that electrics aren't for everyone, it seems the prejudice against them is irrational. 99% of the driving we do can be handled by a low range aging electric car. If I could convince my wife that renting a gas car for the remaining 1% is perfectly feasible -- and for whatever reason, laying out the math which shows it to be a money saver, doesn't work -- we could be all electric.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:08PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:08PM (#462887)

      The price on used Leafs has taken a real hit recently. You can find 2 year old leafs with less than 20K miles on them for under $10K. [craigslist.org]

      Leafs with 40K mileage are less than $7K. I suspect that's due in part to the Chevy Bolt hitting the market with its 200 mile range. I bet that when the tesla model E comes out later this year it will be another big hit to used leaf prices.

      • (Score: 3, Insightful) by hemocyanin on Saturday February 04 2017, @07:50PM

        by hemocyanin (186) on Saturday February 04 2017, @07:50PM (#462916) Journal

        Yeah -- if you are the type of person that switches cars frequently, an electric is probably a bad investment at this point because the technology is moving so fast. When I got mine, I consciously decided to think of it more like an electronic gadget than a car, but since I tend to keep my cars for a long time I decided not to be concerned about depreciation and to just be happy with fun driving and extremely low maintenance.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @09:41PM

          by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @09:41PM (#462944)

          I meant the reverse.
          Used electrics are super affordable. The kind of person who drives a car into the ground is probably totally fine buying used. I'm 15 years in on my isuzu which I bought used. I'm going to try to hold out until fall and see if I can pick up a top-line leaf with leather, bose and surround cameras for under $8K.