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Transportation accounts for a huge portion of US carbon emissions. As recently as 2014, it was behind the electricity sector — 26 percent of US emissions to electricity's 30 percent. But as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) just confirmed, as of 2016, they have crossed paths. "Electric power sector CO2 emissions," EIA writes, "are now regularly below transportation sector CO2 emissions for the first time since the late 1970s."
This is happening because power sector "carbon intensity" — carbon emissions per unit of energy produced — is falling, as coal is replaced with natural gas, renewables, and efficiency.
The only realistic prospect for reducing transportation sector emissions rapidly and substantially is electrification. How much market share EVs take from oil (gasoline is by far the most common use for oil in the US) will matter a great deal.
[...] Today saw the release of a new study from the Grantham Institute for Imperial College London and the Carbon Tracker Initiative. It argues that solar photovoltaics (PV) and EVs together will kick fossil fuel's ass, quickly.
"Falling costs of electric vehicle and solar technology," they conclude, "could halt growth in global demand for oil and coal from 2020." That would be a pretty big deal.
The "business as usual" (BAU) scenarios that typically dominate these discussions are outdated, the researchers argue. New baseline scenarios should take into account updated information on PV, EV, and battery costs. (The EIA doesn't expect inflation-adjusted prices of EVs to fall to $30,000 until 2030, even as multiple automakers say they'll hit that within a few years.)
[...] If these forecasts play out, fossil fuels could lose 10 percent market share to PV and EVs within a decade. A 10 percent loss in market share was enough to send the US coal industry spiraling, enough to cause Europe's utilities to hemorrhage money. It could seriously disrupt life for the oil majors. "Growth in EVs alone could lead to 2 million barrels of oil per day being displaced by 2025," the study says, "the same volume that caused the oil price collapse in 2014-15."
Source: http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/2/2/14467748/electric-vehicles-oil-market
(Score: 2) by frojack on Saturday February 04 2017, @07:24AM
A 10 percent loss in market share was enough to send the US coal industry spiraling, enough to cause Europe's utilities to hemorrhage money. It could seriously disrupt life for the oil majors
Wind and solar have accounted for the 10% drop mentioned in the article.
Renewable energy in the United States accounted for 13.44 percent of the domestically produced electricity in 2015, and 11.1 percent of total energy generation.
Says wiki.
EVs have had nothing to do with it with the drop in oil and gas consumption.
It seems to me the rapid increase in EVs are as likely to raise grid demand, perhaps beyond what can be supported.
That might kill oil prices.
But its going to raise natural gas prices.
And its going to raise coal prices in those places that a) have no alternatives, or b) get a handle on carbon capture.
The same net work is going to be done. Same number of cars.
So you shift fuels from one source to the another.
EVs will probably increase gas and coal consumption as they gain significant market share.
We also still have a storage problem with solar and wind. (people charge EVs at night). Even wind power is lower at night.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @08:01AM
>> A 10 percent loss in market share was enough to send the US coal industry spiraling,
>>
> Wind and solar have accounted for the 10% drop mentioned in the article.
>
> Renewable energy in the United States accounted for 13.44 percent of the domestically
> produced electricity in 2015, and 11.1 percent of total energy generation.
So many ways you are wrong:
(Score: 3, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @01:00PM
http://www.worldcoal.org/file_validate.php?file=Coal%20Facts%202015.pdf [worldcoal.org]
Almost 50% INCREASE since 1990s. We are almost at record production of coal world wide. So, what are you talking about this "10% drop"?? Doesn't stack with reality. The only drop I see is if we start to run out of easily accessible coal!
As for TFS, it's also bullshit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production [wikipedia.org]
90 MILLION cars produced in 2015. And Increasing. And Tesla?
https://www.tesla.com/factory [tesla.com]
0.1 MILLION cars... It's not even on the radar when it comes to numbers. You have to start somewhere, but it's not a threat to ICE engines. The Giga Factory will not change this picture either!
So there is reality, and then there is wishful thinking. Reality is electric cars are nowhere near displacing ICE cars. Reality is that COAL usage is increasing despite all the agreements (and look further than down your nose at your little patch on this planet). Reality is OIL is at record production. Reality is that NAUTRAL GAS is produced in larger quantities than ever. ALL of it is burned. Reality is we are NOT decreasing worldwide CO2 emissions. Wake the fuck up from your delusions people. You can't change course in a few years by installing a few solar panels and an LED lightbulb.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?end=2013&start=1960&view=chart [worldbank.org]
So where is this decrease? Long term it's "business as usual"!! We are not only not decreasing over CO2 emissions, We are increasing PER CAPITA and number of people doubled since beginning of that graph. So in absolute numbers, that chart doubles on the right, which makes it even gloomier.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @11:08PM
Almost 50% INCREASE since 1990s. We are almost at record production of coal world wide. So, what are you talking about this "10% drop"?? Doesn't stack with reality.
You cited a report of the numbers through 2014. That was the top. Since then coal consumption has decreased [instituteforenergyresearch.org] which is why so many coal companies have gone bankrupt in the last year. [reuters.com]
90 MILLION cars produced in 2015. And Increasing. And Tesla?
Its misleading to cite worldwide production numbers when comparing to tesla sales since tesla is primarily just US sales.
US sales are about ~17 million cars per year. [autonews.com]
And why just tesla? Nissan has sold more leafs [insideevs.com] than tesla has sold all models combined.
And now the chevy bolt is on the market.
Frankly the fact that you had all these numbers that were vastly different from the article ought to have been a clue that maybe you weren't talking about the same things. But instead you dived in with the accusation that authors are just lying, oh excuse me "bullshitting." You obviously had an agenda and you were willing to misrepresent in order to push that agenda instead of making an honest point. That's the real bullshit here.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @07:33PM
The big give-away was when he cited "wiki" but chose to leave out the URL to whatever article he was citing. Frojackoff is so reliably intellectually dishonest that you know he was deliberately hiding something. And, no surprise, he was - the first sentence of the very next paragraph demolished his entire point:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_the_United_States [wikipedia.org]
Renewable energy in the United States accounted for 13.44 percent of the domestically produced electricity in 2015,[2] and 11.1 percent of total energy generation.[3] As of 2014, more than 143,000 people work in the solar industry and 43 states deploy net metering, where energy utilities buy back excess power generated by solar arrays.[4]
Renewable energy reached a major milestone in the first quarter of 2011, when it contributed 11.7 percent of total U.S. energy production
Going from 11.7% to 13.44% is not 10% its less than 2%.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @01:07PM
That might kill oil prices.
If gas prices go up, we'll just burn oil to generate electricity.
EVs will probably increase gas and coal consumption as they gain significant market share.
If you mean from 0 market share? Niche market atm.
(Score: 2) by frojack on Wednesday February 08 2017, @01:29AM
If gas prices go up, we'll just burn oil to generate electricity.
This country has never burned oil to generate electricity. We don't have any generation capacity for that,
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.