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Transportation accounts for a huge portion of US carbon emissions. As recently as 2014, it was behind the electricity sector — 26 percent of US emissions to electricity's 30 percent. But as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) just confirmed, as of 2016, they have crossed paths. "Electric power sector CO2 emissions," EIA writes, "are now regularly below transportation sector CO2 emissions for the first time since the late 1970s."
This is happening because power sector "carbon intensity" — carbon emissions per unit of energy produced — is falling, as coal is replaced with natural gas, renewables, and efficiency.
The only realistic prospect for reducing transportation sector emissions rapidly and substantially is electrification. How much market share EVs take from oil (gasoline is by far the most common use for oil in the US) will matter a great deal.
[...] Today saw the release of a new study from the Grantham Institute for Imperial College London and the Carbon Tracker Initiative. It argues that solar photovoltaics (PV) and EVs together will kick fossil fuel's ass, quickly.
"Falling costs of electric vehicle and solar technology," they conclude, "could halt growth in global demand for oil and coal from 2020." That would be a pretty big deal.
The "business as usual" (BAU) scenarios that typically dominate these discussions are outdated, the researchers argue. New baseline scenarios should take into account updated information on PV, EV, and battery costs. (The EIA doesn't expect inflation-adjusted prices of EVs to fall to $30,000 until 2030, even as multiple automakers say they'll hit that within a few years.)
[...] If these forecasts play out, fossil fuels could lose 10 percent market share to PV and EVs within a decade. A 10 percent loss in market share was enough to send the US coal industry spiraling, enough to cause Europe's utilities to hemorrhage money. It could seriously disrupt life for the oil majors. "Growth in EVs alone could lead to 2 million barrels of oil per day being displaced by 2025," the study says, "the same volume that caused the oil price collapse in 2014-15."
Source: http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/2/2/14467748/electric-vehicles-oil-market
(Score: 2) by VLM on Saturday February 04 2017, @01:22PM
So rent a gas car you dumbshit. Its only twice a year and you avoid putting a ton of miles on your car.
My daily driver is a one and a half ton Yaris commuter vehicle (basically a stripped down Toyota) (which makes me wonder about the original OPs assertion that SUVs are 2+ tons, try more like 4+ tons for a big duallie pickup truck)
Anyway people sometimes freak out about it, but it can carry a hell of a lot more than you'd think, and I rent the home depot pickup truck for $25 or whatever it is about twice a year when I need 100 pound bags of landscaping WTF or bricks or sheets of plywood for a woodworking project. The rent for the truck is about the cost of three days of the car loan payment, insurance, repairs, for buying one of my own, so as long as I rent it less than twice a week I'm ahead financially. They rent it a couple times per day so they're making piles of cash while I'm saving piles.
And my coworker blew the engine of a giant SUV rental in rural nowhere ville Texas and an hour later the rental company had her in a new rental on her way. Imagine if that were her car broken down in the middle of nowhere, the mechanic would screw her so bad it would make bondage pr0n look gentle. Its foolish to take your own car on a road trip.
I can't eat "real food" in less than the time it takes a modern EV to quick charge. I could fast for 16 hours just to make some kind of point, but naaah I don't think so.
You get what you pay for with apartments, I have a SiL who always nickel and dimed and she did save like $50/mo on me, but oh god the complaining I had to hear about her slumlord properties. Someone who can afford a brand new car probably is in the upper reaches of rental economy. Poor renters aren't going to get hand-me-down electrics for a decade or so.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Saturday February 04 2017, @03:36PM
Your figure of 4+ tons didn't sound right. I did a quick search, I'm satisfied with the Ford F-350 as an example. How about 3 tons for a typical one ton dually? 3 3/4 for the extra heavy duty four wheel drive model. Yeah, that's a lot of weight - close to four tons anyway. Most of the cars I've owned in the past 20 years are between 3100 and 3500 pounds. That makes for a huge difference in fuel expenses.
http://www.holidayfordusa.com/blog/how-much-does-the-2016-ford-f-350-weigh/ [holidayfordusa.com]
2016 F-350 XL
Curb Weight 6,010 lbs.
GVWR 10,000 lbs.
GCWR 19,000 lbs.
Towing 12,500 lbs.
Payload 3,920 lbs.
2016 F-350 Lariat
Curb Weight 7,460 lbs.
GVWR 14,000 lbs.
GCWR 19,500 lbs.
Towing 12,100 lbs.
Payload 6,460 lbs.