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posted by on Monday March 13 2017, @12:33PM   Printer-friendly
from the betteridge's-law-says... dept.

Illegal Southwest border crossings were down 40% last month, according to just released Customs and Border Protection numbers -- a sign that President Donald Trump's hardline rhetoric and policies on immigration may be having a deterrent effect.

Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly himself announced the month-to-month numbers, statistics that CBP usually quietly posts on its website without fanfare.

According to CBP data, the 40% drop in illegal Southwest border crossings from January to February is far outside normal seasonal trends. Typically, the January to February change is actually an increase of 10% to 20%.

The drop breaks a nearly 20-year trend, as CBP data going back to 2000 shows an uptick in apprehensions every February.

The number of apprehensions and inadmissible individuals presenting at the border was 18,762 people in February, down from 31,578 in January.

It will still take months to figure out if the decrease in apprehensions is an indication of a lasting Trump effect on immigration patterns. Numbers tend to decrease seasonally in the winter and increase into the spring months.

But the sharp downtick after an uptick at the end of the Obama administration could fit the narrative that it takes tough rhetoric on immigration -- backed up by policy -- to get word-of-mouth warnings to undocumented immigrants making the harrowing journey to the border.

Source: http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/08/politics/border-crossings-huge-drop-trump-tough-talk/index.html

Submitted via IRC for Runaway1956


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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @09:54PM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @09:54PM (#478652)

    There is fairly strong evidence the video did increase the size of the attack party.

    Do you have scientific evidence of that, and how could you objectively verify it? Can you read people's minds to discern their true intentions? This, much like opinion polls, are completely worthless because you can't objectively verify whether or not what people said is actually true. At least you can verify the results of an election to a reasonable degree, and you can measure someone's penis size if they lie about it, but how can you read someone's mind to see if they truly believe X? We do not have such technology yet, so opinion polls are bogus, and saying that someone admitting that a video bothered them is good evidence that it was a large reason why they carried out an attack is also unverifiable. There have also been shooters who blamed violent video games for their actions; you can say or blame anything, but unless you have actual evidence that their claims are true, it's ludicrous to simply accept what they say.

  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday March 13 2017, @10:46PM

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday March 13 2017, @10:46PM (#478678) Journal
    The previous poster already admitted that they had no evidence for their "fairly strong evidence".

    There is fairly strong evidence the video did increase the size of the attack party.

    [...] It's not like we can rip the neurons out of every member of the attack party and recreate their mind in emulation software. That technology simply doesn't exist.

    An assertion of strong certainty followed by an argument from ignorance for the exact same thing. Classic cognitive dissonance. This sort of thing is why I think a fair number of people have gone beyond mere irrationality for US politics to some sort of mental illness.