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Abraham de Moivre, a French mathematician and the godfather of probability theory, was also the first-known person to correctly predict the day he would die. At the age of 87, he noticed that he was sleeping 15 minutes longer each night. He theorized that when those extra 15 minutes per day added up to a full 24 hours, he would die. The date he predicted: Nov. 27, 1754. Sure enough, he passed away from "somnolence" that day.
Though there is some doubt about the veracity of this story, many researchers have since tried to use statistics to tell us how long we will live. More than 250 years later, however, the science of predicting mortality has remained stagnant, left to insurance actuaries using antiquated statistical techniques based on limited data.
But the advent of Big Data analytics has reraised the questions that de Moivre considered: Can we use mathematics to predict the timing of death? Do people want to know when they will die? Recent insights using computer analytics say yes to both.
Predicting one's mortality is an important question for many stakeholders. As a physician who studies end-of-life care, I have come across cases for which an accurate estimate of one's longevity would dramatically improve patients' lives.
[...] A 2013 study published in the American Journal of Epidemiology found that machine learning outperformed any single algorithm or risk score by up to 44 percent when predicting mortality in an elderly population.
[...] In his book Being Mortal, author and physician Atul Gawande writes, "how we seek to spend our time may depend on how much time we perceive ourselves to have." The machine can help with this, freeing us from trying to live longer so that we can just live.
What do you think ? Would you want to know when you are going to die ?
(Score: 2) by Zinho on Monday March 13 2017, @08:24PM (2 children)
If we're speculating about the effect this would have, we should discuss the existing body of speculative fiction covering the topic:
Machine of Death [machineofdeath.net]
Machine of Death [wikipedia.org] is a 2010 collection of science fiction short stories edited by Ryan North, Matthew Bennardo, and David Malki.[1] The stories featured in Machine of Death were submitted by various writers since early 2007 and all focus on a device which can accurately predict the manner in which the user will eventually die. The book became a #1 bestseller on Amazon.com shortly after its initial publication, and was later released online under a free license.
It's a fun read, lots of thoughts on how we'd react as humans to an infallible predictor of this sort.
What other required reading can fellow Lentils suggest?
"Space Exploration is not endless circles in low earth orbit." -Buzz Aldrin
(Score: 2) by looorg on Monday March 13 2017, @08:54PM
Leela: Does it really work?
Farnsworth: Well it's occasionally off by a few seconds. What with free will and all.
Fry: Sounds like fun. How long do I have left to live?
[He puts his finger in the hole and the clock dings.]
Bender: Ooh! Dibs on his CD player!
http://futurama.wikia.com/wiki/Death_Clock [wikia.com]
(Score: 3, Interesting) by NotSanguine on Monday March 13 2017, @09:20PM
Interesting, thanks. I hadn't seem this before.
I'm surprised that the story [soylentnews.org] I linked to wasn't included in the collection, given that it's now in the public domain.
No, no, you're not thinking; you're just being logical. --Niels Bohr