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Abraham de Moivre, a French mathematician and the godfather of probability theory, was also the first-known person to correctly predict the day he would die. At the age of 87, he noticed that he was sleeping 15 minutes longer each night. He theorized that when those extra 15 minutes per day added up to a full 24 hours, he would die. The date he predicted: Nov. 27, 1754. Sure enough, he passed away from "somnolence" that day.
Though there is some doubt about the veracity of this story, many researchers have since tried to use statistics to tell us how long we will live. More than 250 years later, however, the science of predicting mortality has remained stagnant, left to insurance actuaries using antiquated statistical techniques based on limited data.
But the advent of Big Data analytics has reraised the questions that de Moivre considered: Can we use mathematics to predict the timing of death? Do people want to know when they will die? Recent insights using computer analytics say yes to both.
Predicting one's mortality is an important question for many stakeholders. As a physician who studies end-of-life care, I have come across cases for which an accurate estimate of one's longevity would dramatically improve patients' lives.
[...] A 2013 study published in the American Journal of Epidemiology found that machine learning outperformed any single algorithm or risk score by up to 44 percent when predicting mortality in an elderly population.
[...] In his book Being Mortal, author and physician Atul Gawande writes, "how we seek to spend our time may depend on how much time we perceive ourselves to have." The machine can help with this, freeing us from trying to live longer so that we can just live.
What do you think ? Would you want to know when you are going to die ?
(Score: 3, Insightful) by edIII on Monday March 13 2017, @08:35PM (2 children)
The answer is a hard no for other reasons to me. Those being that all information is used against us.
Going to die in 3 months? Well then your credit score drops to -20. Banks call in loans early. Your boss starts to discuss you training somebody else. Basically, the people who develop and control that information will use it to abuse us. That's because all information is used to abuse us.
Corporations, or "stake holders", will decide about your life no differently than they decide how cattle will die and when, and for the exact same reasons. Maximization of profits upwards to the Owning Classes.
From a Game Theory perspective, information like the exact time of your death should never be disclosed to anyone, or anything. Anytime they even begin to say that they know this, we need to fight them tooth and nail with science, law, or just plain bullets in their fucking heads.
Technically, lunchtime is at any moment. It's just a wave function.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Immerman on Monday March 13 2017, @11:17PM
Since when has whether or not something should be done had any relevance to whether it can be done?
Heck, it's a rare and lucky day if it has any impact on whether it does get done.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 14 2017, @02:36AM
You forget, they're going to know anyway. They have the data. The question is, do YOU want to know.
If you assume everyone else already knows (meaning govt., banks, insurance co, etc.) Do you want to be in on the secret too?
I sure do. Do I have enough time to travel? To write that book? Or do I need to just stay home and enjoy the sunshine tomorrow?