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posted by on Wednesday April 05 2017, @09:11PM   Printer-friendly
from the vive-le-roi dept.

You may never buy another laptop.

Ten years ago, laptop sales overtook desktop PC sales to become the dominant hardware platform for computing. Now smartphones are about to do to laptops what laptops did to desktops.

[...] The first fatal trend is that young people are already choosing smartphones over laptops, even without docking and clamshell smartphones. ComScore reports that the use of laptops and desktops among younger people is on the decline. Some 20 percent of millennials use their smartphone as their only computing device, according to a recent report, and this percentage grows each year. Raw demographics alone favor the end of laptops.

The second fatal trend is that the industry is champing at the bit to move everything off Intel and onto ARM. (Intel and Intel-compatible chips have powered desktop and laptop platforms for decades; the smartphones and smartphone apps run on ARM chips.) Once laptops, especially laptops from Apple, run ARM chips, they'll run iOS and Android instead of OS X and Windows. And at that point, they'll essentially be identical to docking solutions, but more expensive.

The third and final fatal trend can be found in your wallet. Smartphones are becoming amazing. The Galaxy S8 is amazing. And this year's iPhone is expected to be mind-blowing as well. The new phones have cameras that rival DSLRs. They have performance that rivals desktop PCs. They run increasingly amazing apps, including professional-quality apps. Unlike laptops, smartphones are exciting.

And they're expensive.

Consumers are now ready to pay $700, $800 — even $1,000 and upwards for a phone. (Already a top-of-the-line iPhone 7 with AppleCare costs $1,100. The iPhone 8 is expected to be more expensive.)

Consumers will pay this amount because smartphones are worth it. This is especially true if they don't have to shell out $1,500 or more for a laptop as well.

Laptops are too boring and expensive. The industry is churning out new designs that enable smartphones as laptop replacements. Young people are favoring smartphones. The industry wants to use smartphone OSes. And consumers are spending more on smartphones, which will make us spend less on laptops.

-- submitted from IRC


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  • (Score: 5, Touché) by tibman on Wednesday April 05 2017, @10:53PM (3 children)

    by tibman (134) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday April 05 2017, @10:53PM (#489397)

    Millennials have been working for 15+ years.

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    Starting Score:    1  point
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       Insightful=1, Disagree=1, Touché=2, Total=4
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    Total Score:   5  
  • (Score: 2) by slinches on Thursday April 06 2017, @12:17AM (2 children)

    by slinches (5049) on Thursday April 06 2017, @12:17AM (#489426)

    Millennials should have been working for 15+ years.

    FTFY.

    Seriously, though. Laptops will be the standard office computer for a while yet. There's one person in my office that has a tablet, but it may as well be a laptop since it comes with a dock and keyboard case. Sure, some may use their phones more for work if they are just calling in, attending meetings and taking notes, but most jobs require more than that.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday April 06 2017, @09:43AM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Thursday April 06 2017, @09:43AM (#489594)

      Laptops will be the standard office computer for a while yet.

      You think so? Here, the standard office computer is still the desktop. I would hate being forced to use a laptop for my daily work.

      There's one person in my office that has a tablet, but it may as well be a laptop since it comes with a dock and keyboard case.

      Sure, you can attach a separate keyboard and screen to a laptop, but then you could just call it an overly expensive desktop.

      • (Score: 2) by tibman on Thursday April 06 2017, @02:02PM

        by tibman (134) Subscriber Badge on Thursday April 06 2017, @02:02PM (#489652)

        That's exactly the situation at my work. Everyone is required to have laptops (and also required to take them home everyday). I have a dual monitor stand, nice keyboard, and mouse. My boss likes his microsoft surface tablet/laptop but it is very under powered compared to my thinkpad. I'd love if they would let me leave the laptop at home and have a real desktop at work. Ryzen 1800x please!

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