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posted by martyb on Sunday April 23 2017, @05:42AM   Printer-friendly
from the reality-and-perception dept.

During the cold war, there was a clear narrative: an ideological opposition between the US and the Soviet Union. Moments of great tension were understood as episodes within that narrative. The closest we came to nuclear confrontation was the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when the two countries seemed on the edge of war. But the crisis itself was finished inside a fortnight, and there was a wider framework to fall back on. The 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty calmed the waters.

Then, in the early 1980s the tough-talking but critically derided , Ronald Reagan was elected US president. He reignited the cold war rhetoric and began escalating the arms race, and there was an assumption – particularly in Europe – that nuclear destruction was creeping closer. But it was still within a recognisable context. That ended with the collapse of communism, and the fall of the Berlin Wall. For a while the world felt a much safer place than it had been.

But the cold war was replaced by uncertainty. And now the uncertainty is combined with the unpredictability of Donald Trump. The recent bombing raids in Syria and Afghanistan were isolated moments, without any sense of programme or continuity. Nor does there seem any logic to why North Korea should have suddenly become a pressing issue. Incidents that seem to arrive out of the blue can be much more frightening. We're probably not on the verge of nuclear war, but it's destabilising if we can't make sense of events.

Is the world more dangerous now than during the cold war?

[Related]: Nuclear war will ignite in May 2017, mystic Horacio Villegas says

What do you think ?


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  • (Score: 4, Informative) by davester666 on Sunday April 23 2017, @06:37AM (3 children)

    by davester666 (155) on Sunday April 23 2017, @06:37AM (#498197)

    Trump is a "topper". He has to top everyone. And he will blurt out pretty much anything to top what someone else has said or done. Unfortunately, this is coupled with a remarkable lack of understanding of politics in general (other than lying and shouting, he's got those down pat).

    And with another topper in the wack job running North Korea, that is a recipe for disaster, as each per eggs the other one to be more provocative. Eventually, someone will do a bit too much, or misunderstand something, and all hell will break loose.

    And now with Trump's sabre-rattling at Iran (they aren't enabling US foreign policy in the region. Like, who the fuck imagines they will).

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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 23 2017, @06:00PM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 23 2017, @06:00PM (#498424)

    The worst-case scenario in Korea is a limited, local nuclear exchange with regional fallout effects and a political shitstorm.

    The current Russian and Chinese posture is to protect their borders from an influx of NK refugees. Neither is going to war to defend Kim the Rotund. Ever. They have too much to lose compared to 1950.

    Fallout contamination in the Russian Far East and possible China would be a big whoopsie, but Putin isn't going to war over that. Likely endgame:A unified and significantly depopulated Korean peninsula. China is castrated. Big US aid program and profuse apologies to Russia for the fallout mess.

    World War 3 is not going to start over any likely Korea scenario.

    • (Score: 2) by HiThere on Sunday April 23 2017, @06:45PM (1 child)

      by HiThere (866) Subscriber Badge on Sunday April 23 2017, @06:45PM (#498438) Journal

      I put the worst case scenario as considerably worse than you do, but I agree that's unlikely to cause a major war. Japan might be destroyed, and the world economy might collapse. China would hardly be "castrated". They'd likely demand (and get) major damage concessions. The US might lose every ally that it has. Even Canada and Mexico might break off relations. (This is a bit unlikely, but it depends on how the rest of the world reacts.) China, Russia, and probably the EU would find lots of new devoted friends.

      This isn't like right after WWII. People have stopped looking at the US as "the good guys". Many people are already looking for a good excuse to distance themselves.

      --
      Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 23 2017, @07:34PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 23 2017, @07:34PM (#498474)

        The financial markets will go Code Blue for awhile, but the greater economy will be just fine.

        Japan destroyed? Unlikely. Even if Kimmy-poo could get his whole miniscule arsenal of low-yield junk delivered to the Japanese home islands, and they all actually worked, Japan would suffer terribly but certainly survive.

        As far as the US's reputation afterward, it's hard to imagine it being much worse, and it would put a lot of wannabes on short notice.

        That said, I'm betting on China just slowly strangling the Kimster economically and engineering a safer, saner puppet regime. China wants a weak, divided peninsula.