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Various news outlets are reporting that the UK's prime minister, Theresa May, has called for a general election to be held on 8 June. The Conservative Party Web site has a transcript of her public statement, which can also be heard in a video.
The call for a snap election has now been backed by parliament.
May surprised allies and opponents [...] when she announced her plan to bring forward an election that was not due until 2020, saying she needed to avoid a clash of priorities in the sensitive final stages of the two-year Brexit talks.
After addressing a rowdy session of the House of Commons, May won the support of 522 lawmakers in the 650-seat parliament for an election on June 8. Only 13 voted against.
With May seen winning a new five-year mandate and boosting her majority in parliament by perhaps 100 seats, the pound held close to six-and-a-half month highs on hopes she may be able to clinch a smoother, more phased departure from the EU and minimise damage to the UK economy.
[...] The former interior minister, who became prime minister without an election when her predecessor David Cameron quit after last year's referendum vote for Brexit, enjoys a runaway lead over the main opposition Labour Party in opinion polls.
This is a notable change from the position taken over the last few months where May had said after the EU referendum, a "period of stability" was needed. "There isn’t going to be one. It isn’t going to happen. There is not going to be a general election," said the prime minister's spokesman less than a month ago.
Coverage (many of these are editorials):
- The Sun
- New Statesman
- New Statesman
- The Independent
- The Independent
- The Guardian
- The Telegraph
- The New York Times
- The Irish Times
- BBC News
- Daily Mail
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday April 24 2017, @03:20PM (14 children)
So, what would happen is the "Remain" parties during the referendum get a majority now? Less support for May to continue the Brexit procedure?
I remember many sounds from Brits that voted "Leave", thinking it would not be done when they would get a majority.
(Score: 2) by Soylentbob on Monday April 24 2017, @03:43PM
Article 50 of the EU is already invoked, the point of no return has been reached and crossed. Also the liberal party is allegedly so weak that May has practically no risk of losing and a good chance to boost her majority. (No, I don't remember where I got this information l.)
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday April 24 2017, @03:48PM (3 children)
That's not how the british system works.
You have a few scenarios:
- the tories get a refreshed, strong majority. Brexit proceeds unchanged.
- the tories get a reduced majority. They're still the government, and Brexit proceeds (probably) unchanged.
- the tories don't get a majority, but get a plurality and manage to cobble together a pro-Brexit coalition. Brexit proceeds, with largely minor changes to the negotiating strategy.
- someone else wins an outright majority. (Note: with Labour being more useless than kitten in a catnip patch right now, I have no idea who this would be.) Brexit presumably continues, because the kick-off has already happened, but with desperate attempts to woo Europe into not hurting Britain too much.
- some non-tory coalition forms a government. (Liberal democrats and scottish nationals? With some labour around the fringes? I have no idea.) They probably try to stop Brexit, but at this point it's probably too late. Chances are, they offer Scotland another independence referendum, and oversee the dismantling of the UK.
Remember, Brexit has already been started. There are now two years of negotiations to come. What's largely happening right now is argument over who runs those negotiations. I wasn't a fly on the wall, but I'd be that one of May's chief concerns was her being undermined by a putative successor government holding shadow negotiations behind her back while she tries to wrap it up. This gambit reduces that threat.
(Score: 2) by turgid on Monday April 24 2017, @07:39PM
Very insightful, Mr/Ms AC.
I refuse to engage in a battle of wits with an unarmed opponent [wikipedia.org].
(Score: 2) by turgid on Monday April 24 2017, @07:47PM (1 child)
As for Scottish Independence, the Scottish government recently voted to have another independence referendum. The Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has formally asked the UK Prime Minister Theresa May for permission to have the referendum, but the Prime Minister has not given an answer yet as to the timing. It looks almost certain that Scotland will leave the UK this time. Northern Ireland and Gibraltar are other interesting cases.
I refuse to engage in a battle of wits with an unarmed opponent [wikipedia.org].
(Score: 3, Insightful) by TheRaven on Tuesday April 25 2017, @10:35AM
sudo mod me up
(Score: 3, Interesting) by isostatic on Monday April 24 2017, @04:07PM (3 children)
If Lib Dems, SNP and Greens combined got 18 million votes, I would suggest all bets are off.
However the 2 largest parties, May's Conservatives and Corbyn's Labour are both angling for a hard brexit. The Lib Dems have fought and won massive swings in the byelections since June based on brexit -- in Witney (Cameron's old seat) the tories lost 15% of the vote, and the Lib Dems gained 22%. In Richmond the Lib Dems were up 30% and Tory was down 13%.
Both of those were special cases, however if those results were repeated with tory vote down 10%, labour down 5%, and lib dem vote up 20% (i.e less extreme), there would be about 280 lib dem MPs.
(Score: 2) by TheRaven on Tuesday April 25 2017, @10:37AM (2 children)
However the 2 largest parties, May's Conservatives and Corbyn's Labour are both angling for a hard brexit
No they're not. Labour wants to remain in the single market and retain all of the worker protection that the EU provides.
sudo mod me up
(Score: 2) by isostatic on Tuesday April 25 2017, @11:16AM
Actions speak louder than words, and so far they've been backing May to the hilt.
The massive increase in support for the Lib Dems since the referendum - including 30% swings to Lib Dems in remain constituencies, and even in Copeland which Labour lost in a near-unprecedented failure, there was a 9 point swing from Labour to Lib Dem.
Alas the tories have gone full UKIP and are hoovering all the ukip vote up. Labour also tried over the last year, have realised they've failed, and are now rowing round in circles.
Unfortunatly the Lib Dems are cocking up this election so far, no media presence at all.
(Score: 2) by isostatic on Tuesday April 25 2017, @02:11PM
No they're not. Labour wants to remain in the single market and retain all of the worker protection that the EU provides.
They've seen the massive support that the Lib Dems are getting and want in.
However according to Kier Starmer, Labour wants the free movement of people would end. Therefore labour wants to leave the single market.
There's also the fact that we can't even begin to negotiate being in the customs union until we've actually left the EU (https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0120/846481-eu-brexit/)
Even in a bad situation, where the lib dems only get say 4 million votes, and the Tories get 400 seats, at least Corbyn will be out and we'll having someone like Umma as a proper opposition leader. If Corbyn wins another far-left momentum drive, then I hope the sensible people in Labour jump ship over the summer.
(Score: 2) by zocalo on Monday April 24 2017, @06:38PM (3 children)
As for aborting the Article 50 process, theoretically at least, that's still possible given that there are plenty of people on both sides of the fence who seem to think that Article 50 can be aborted, including its author, many of those on the EU's negotiating team, and amongst May's own team who have aired the possibility of just walking away from the table and taking a default if things went badly enough. Should an SNP/LibDem led coalition actually get to form the next government - unlikely on paper, but with the recent electoral upsets, who knows? - then they could probably abort the process, likely to huge sighs of relief from Remain voters and the EU looking to prevent other countries following suit. The real question is, would they actually dare to do so and, if so, how?
That would almost certainly be a number's game. They would certainly cite the 48% that originally voted Remain, but the reality of a general election with so many parties in contention is that the party (or parties, in the event of a coalition) that gets to form the next government usually only get around one third of the total votes cast, if that. Hardly as decisive a mandate as the referendum result. Even allowing for a few changed opinions, there is still going to be ~50% of the population in the Leave camp who are not going to be pleased if the process gets stopped in its tracks, and it would take an *awfully* large swing of voters to the pro-Remain parties to make it clear the mood has changed and they are the minority. Somewhat improbable, given that there's still no sign of the kind of widespread economic chaos promised by the Remain campaign's "Project Fear", nor is there ever likely to be given how obviously overblown and worst case scenario the pitch was. The other only option would be a second referendum at some point, but that just means wasting more time, risks yet another vote not going to plan, and all the while deepening the divisions within the UK and between the UK and the EU.
UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
(Score: 2) by theluggage on Monday April 24 2017, @08:31PM (2 children)
given that there's still no sign of the kind of widespread economic chaos promised by the Remain campaign's "Project Fear"
Well, given that effects generally come after causes, and Brexit won't actually happen for another two years*, that's hardly surprising, but rationality has never really been part of either side of this debate... Even so, unless you've got a nice portfolio of multi-national stocks that have gone vrooosh since the vote, the immediate fallout of inflation and low interest rates for savers hasn't been too brilliant for all those working poor who were going to kick elitism in the teeth by voting for Boris...
Of course, Camoron was going to sign Art 50 the day after a "leave" vote, and Osbourne was going to call an emergency "austerity plus" budget which probably would have brought it all to pass - but fortunately they were politicians and their lips were moving (please don't mistake my previous paragraph as any sort of respect for the "remain" campaign which was basically "nice econonmy you have there - pity if anything happened to it!").
(*and god knows how many further years of some interim deal fudged together when the clock runs out without an agreement...)
(Score: 2) by zocalo on Monday April 24 2017, @10:01PM
As for the stocks, other than the real fat cats I don't think it's going to make too much difference in the long run; the man on the street with any investments/private pension is still likely to end up breaking even at best, or even in a net loss. Even assuming you hedged your bets, moved investments, pensions, etc., over to international stocks and UK companies that do well overseas before the vote, then rode that huge jump in the markets, your on-paper gains are going to need to be offset against the fall in value of Sterling. Unless you got *really* lucky in your portfolio choices, you're probably just about breaking even on the deal - and it's still only an on-paper gain that might also be subject to tax if/when you try and cash it in.
UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
(Score: 2) by TheRaven on Tuesday April 25 2017, @10:40AM
sudo mod me up
(Score: 2) by theluggage on Monday April 24 2017, @08:10PM
So, what would happen is the "Remain" parties during the referendum get a majority now?
AFAIK, the only "Remain" party now is the Scottish National Party, who can't win a majority unless they suddenly start fielding candidates in England - now that would be fun, but unlikely) and maybe some of the N. Ireland parties. Even the Liberal Democrats seem to be pursuing a "soft Brexit" (i.e. leaving the EU and staying in the single market).
I think the only "remain majority" scenario is that May's cunning plan collapses leaving no overall winner, Corbyn is forced to resign (as is traditional for Labour leaders who lose a general election) allowing the Labour party to oppose Brexit (Corbyn looks like a closet Brexiteer, like many on the traditional Labour left who would like more state intervention in industry than the EU woild permit) allowing two or more of Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP to form a pro-remain coalition. Not holding my breath. More likely the Lib Dems would (again) prop up the Tories in return for a few token concessions on Brexit, but most likely of all is that May has called it right and she'll get an increased majority. Then, its a case of trying to guess how much of the current "hard Brexit" policy is being forced on May (who was supposedly a remain supporter) by hard-liners and how much is her idea. Methinks she'll back whichever side looks like winning...