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posted by n1 on Tuesday May 23 2017, @03:45AM   Printer-friendly
from the lack-of-future-taxpayers dept.

Onuki, a 31-year-old salesman, is headed to the train station to catch the 12:24 a.m. train, the last one of the night, back to his home in Yokohama. The train will quickly fill up with other professional working men.

At about 1:30 a.m., after having made a pit stop at a convenience store to grab a sandwich, Onuki arrives home. When he opens the bedroom door, he accidentally wakes his wife, Yoshiko, who just recently fell asleep after working an 11-hour day. She chides him for making too much noise and he apologizes.

Then, with his food still digesting and his alarm set for 7 a.m., he creeps into bed, ready to do it all again tomorrow.

Over the past two decades, stories like the Onukis' have become commonplace in Japan. Young couples are fighting to make relationships work amid a traditional work culture that expects men to be breadwinners and women to be homemakers. It's a losing battle. Many newlyweds are forced to watch their free time disappear, surrendering everything from the occasional date night to starting a family.

The daily constraints have made for a worrisome trend. Japan has entered a vicious cycle of low fertility and low spending that has led to trillions in lost GDP and a population decline of 1 million people, all within just the past five years. If left unabated, experts forecast severe economic downturn and a breakdown in the fabric of social life.

"Adult diapers have outsold baby diapers in Japan for the last six years."


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  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday May 23 2017, @09:33AM (15 children)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday May 23 2017, @09:33AM (#514094) Journal

    Keep in mind that when a few people here tell us all about how we need to accept working more hours for less pay, this is the future they're leading us to.

    Keep in mind that the work load in Japan is grossly exaggerated. For example, of the OECD countries [oecd.org], they actually have less hours worked per year than the OECD average (1719 hours per year worked versus the OECD average of 1766). Mexico, Costa Rica, Korea (South), and Greece all have over 2000 hours per year per worker.

  • (Score: 2) by sjames on Tuesday May 23 2017, @09:36PM (14 children)

    by sjames (2882) on Tuesday May 23 2017, @09:36PM (#514534) Journal

    The stats actually show that they have been steadily reducing hours worked. Essentially the fertility problem they are having now is debt from the past figures. Of course, people already in the U.S. are reproducing at below the replacement rate now. It doesn't show as much since we are more open to immigrants.

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday May 24 2017, @05:11AM (13 children)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday May 24 2017, @05:11AM (#514680) Journal
      Recall that you wrote:

      Keep in mind that when a few people here tell us all about how we need to accept working more hours for less pay, this is the future they're leading us to.

      And now you wrote:

      The stats actually show that they have been steadily reducing hours worked.

      So in other words, this is not the future you were referring to. Steadily reducing hours worked is not working more hours for less pay.

      • (Score: 2) by sjames on Wednesday May 24 2017, @08:39AM (12 children)

        by sjames (2882) on Wednesday May 24 2017, @08:39AM (#514725) Journal

        Japan has been reducing hours. But it is the heavy hours in their past that are coming back to haunt them today. That's not actually that hard to understand, is it? So those who suggest we should work more for less are simply setting us up for a similar decline and fall.

        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday May 24 2017, @12:26PM (11 children)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday May 24 2017, @12:26PM (#514764) Journal

          Japan has been reducing hours. But it is the heavy hours in their past that are coming back to haunt them today. That's not actually that hard to understand, is it?

          What heavy hours? Sure, back in the 1950s, they probably worked more per worker, but they had a much higher fertility back then as well. Low fertility is a universal developed world trait. It has at best little to do with the level of work of the past.

          • (Score: 2) by sjames on Wednesday May 24 2017, @04:07PM (10 children)

            by sjames (2882) on Wednesday May 24 2017, @04:07PM (#514885) Journal

            You do know it takes a baby about 20 years to enter the workforce, right? That introduces a delayed effect. There';s also cultural shifts that happen under overworked conditions as well as a lethargy that sets in over time. Don't forget to factor in the many more people entering the workforce as gender equality has improved means there's a lot less time available to maintain the household.

            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday May 24 2017, @11:52PM (9 children)

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday May 24 2017, @11:52PM (#515203) Journal

              You do know it takes a baby about 20 years to enter the workforce, right? That introduces a delayed effect.

              Doesn't explain reduced fertility in today's lower work week world.

              Don't forget to factor in the many more people entering the workforce as gender equality has improved means there's a lot less time available to maintain the household.

              In other words, women have a huge variety of life options other than just raising a family. This is the universal factor of the developed world.

              • (Score: 2) by sjames on Thursday May 25 2017, @02:24AM (8 children)

                by sjames (2882) on Thursday May 25 2017, @02:24AM (#515247) Journal

                More like in our modern economy, women must enter the workforce to make ends meet. That would be fine if each parent working 20 hrs a week was a feasible option, but it isn't for most.

                • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday May 25 2017, @03:27AM (7 children)

                  by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday May 25 2017, @03:27AM (#515263) Journal

                  More like in our modern economy, women must enter the workforce to make ends meet. That would be fine if each parent working 20 hrs a week was a feasible option, but it isn't for most.

                  That's why almost half go to college first? I think you need a new narrative.

                  • (Score: 2) by sjames on Thursday May 25 2017, @04:00AM (6 children)

                    by sjames (2882) on Thursday May 25 2017, @04:00AM (#515268) Journal

                    And end up in debt up to their eyeballs. Lately, the kind of job that makes paying that off in a reasonable timeframe aren't all that forthcoming.

                    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday May 25 2017, @05:03AM (5 children)

                      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday May 25 2017, @05:03AM (#515292) Journal

                      And end up in debt up to their eyeballs.

                      Japanese college doesn't appear to cost that much (but then, US college doesn't either once you get away from the money sinks). I don't dispute that some Japanese get into a lot of debt, whether school-related or otherwise, nor have I disputed that some Japanese work a lot of hours. This is true for the developed world as a whole and was still true a century or more ago, when these parts of the world were much higher fertility than they are now.

                      People have always needed to work to survive. People have always incurred substantial debts. Despite this, they have tended to be high enough fertility to increase the native population. It is time to look for what's different for us than what's the same.

                      You are describing rather old phenomena and attempting to explain current changes with that. Instead, it makes more sense to look for novel phenomena as an explanation for novel changes rather than assuming that some ancient phenomena behaves differently than it used to. One of these novel phenomena has been the entry of women into the workplace, academia, etc and a great increase in the life options available to women beyond rearing children.

                      • (Score: 2) by sjames on Thursday May 25 2017, @05:29AM (4 children)

                        by sjames (2882) on Thursday May 25 2017, @05:29AM (#515302) Journal

                        I have actually given an answer. For most of that history, one member of the couple (generally the woman) did not have formal employment at all. She took care of the home and the children (also, maintaining ties with neighbors). These days in the U.S., the number of hours adults in the household spend in outside employment has doubled compared to that. Perhaps not so much in Japan.

                        I also wonder if the real hours worked figure for Japan includes the MANDATORY outings for salarymen with the office. It's not work, but you'll never advance beyond entry level if you don't attend.

                        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday May 25 2017, @12:43PM (3 children)

                          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday May 25 2017, @12:43PM (#515418) Journal

                          For most of that history, one member of the couple (generally the woman) did not have formal employment at all.

                          Exactly. You (and others) keep spinning this as a narrative about how overwork is bad. But really it is who is working that affects Japanese fertility.

                          I also wonder if the real hours worked figure for Japan includes the MANDATORY outings for salarymen with the office. It's not work, but you'll never advance beyond entry level if you don't attend.

                          They exaggerated the number of hours most Japanese work. What else has been exaggerated? Salarymen aren't the full Japanese labor force. It's like characterizing the US labor force by only considering the employees in the major corporations at traditional 9-5 jobs.

                          And I still don't care nor see a need to regulate this. Salaryman is a life style choice.

                          Finally, let's consider your sentence that dragged me into this particular thread:

                          So those who suggest we should work more for less are simply setting us up for a similar decline and fall.

                          So we see that your original observation is irrelevant. Japan's ongoing low fertility is due merely to women working, not some acceptance of "work more for less". However, let us consider that the world has changed due to globalization. It is irrational to insist that one can ignore enormous labor competition from the developing world even though we have half a century of evidence otherwise (with vast amount of industry and other commerce shifted from the developed world over during that period).

                          The suggestion is quite valid. If you don't have some edge over developing world labor (such as better skills or closeness to market), then employers don't have a reason to employ you over them. "Work more for less" is not just a suggestion, it's also the reality for people who can't or refuse to adapt - whether or not we spin social safety nets in a feeble attempt to help.

                          • (Score: 2) by sjames on Thursday May 25 2017, @03:37PM (2 children)

                            by sjames (2882) on Thursday May 25 2017, @03:37PM (#515504) Journal

                            It's funny you were so anxious to jump on any argument you missed the all important "Perhaps not so much in Japan.". The 2 income family is more a U.S. thing. So no, Japan's problem isn't merely women working. In the U.S. It (sort of) is, I say sort of since it isn't that women work, it's that both adults work full time. We wouldn't have the problem if we had simply role reversed or if we had gone to both working 20 hour weeks.

                            But the office going out for drinks is not an exaggeration. It may not be counted as actual hours worked, but it is a work function and you must attend. It very much counts as time away from family duties.

                            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday May 25 2017, @07:57PM (1 child)

                              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday May 25 2017, @07:57PM (#515666) Journal

                              It's funny you were so anxious to jump on any argument you missed the all important "Perhaps not so much in Japan."

                              I don't buy that is important. Japan was supposed to be an example of the problems of overwork. Now, perhaps it's not? What else is supposed to be an example, but perhaps isn't?

                              • (Score: 2) by sjames on Thursday May 25 2017, @08:24PM

                                by sjames (2882) on Thursday May 25 2017, @08:24PM (#515687) Journal

                                Go read again. The particular contributor of two income families doesn't happen to be as big in Japan. They overwork in other ways not necessarily captured in the figures.