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The rate at which new technologies get accepted into the mainstream never fails to confuse people. For the longest time, cell phones appeared to be the exclusive domain of yuppies, bankers and drug dealers. And then, suddenly, my mum had one. (No, she doesn't sell drugs.)
Could we see a similar rapid adoption for electric vehicles?
The LA Times reports that Q1 electric car (EV) sales are up 91% in California. Sales of Plug-In Hybrids (PHEV) are up 54% too. This is, of course, only one quarter, from one state, so let's not get too excited. And the actual number of units sold—13,804 EVs and 10,466 PHEVs—is still tiny compared to the 506,745 cars and light trucks sold in the state during the same period. But anyone who knows anything about math can tell you that it doesn't take long for a 91% growth rate to start making serious inroads into a particular market. (Electric car sales in Norway have already reached as high as 37% of new passenger vehicles.)
It's possible the muscle memory developed for cellphones could help with EV adoption, too: plug in the phone at night, plug in the car at night.
(Score: 3, Informative) by FatPhil on Thursday May 25 2017, @12:48PM (11 children)
But anyone who really knows anything about maths would never confuse a logistic curve for an exponential one, and is well aware that at the start they are indistinguishable. They are also (both) annoyingly numerically unstable when it comes to extrapolation, so anyone making precise predictions is using a combination of wishful thinking and pulling numbers out of a dark orifice.
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 3, Interesting) by PiMuNu on Thursday May 25 2017, @01:06PM (2 children)
> logistic curve for an exponential one
It's clearly logistic. The excitement is that the logistic curve is on an upward trend, with a maximum >> 0. That's not been true of electric vehicles for the past 20 years.
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Thursday May 25 2017, @01:57PM (1 child)
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 1) by Booga1 on Thursday May 25 2017, @04:38PM
Obligatory XKCD: Extrapolating https://www.xkcd.com/605/ [xkcd.com]
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 25 2017, @01:28PM
Rather, we're talking about math.
(Score: 2) by bzipitidoo on Thursday May 25 2017, @04:07PM (3 children)
99% of people aren't knowledgeable enough about math not to confuse logistic for exponential. Exponential growth is used in all kinds of places maybe it shouldn't be, such as interest rates and economic growth rates, Moore's law, and population growth. I think exponential interest rates can work, as long as inflation is also exponential. So $1000 banked at 1% annual compound interest for 3000 years will not grow to more wealth than humanity has ever produced because inflation will reduce its real value to something manageable, maybe even eliminate its apparent growth entirely.
BTW, why not call it an "S" curve, since you're complaining about comprehensibility? Lot more people understand that.
(Score: 2) by mcgrew on Thursday May 25 2017, @06:42PM (1 child)
Indeed. When Rauner was running for governor, he claimed that state employeed had an average income of $65,000 a year, which is true, but the MEDIAN is closer to half that.
mcgrewbooks.com mcgrew.info nooze.org
(Score: 2) by mcgrew on Thursday May 25 2017, @06:45PM
That should be "employees". Damned fat fingers!
mcgrewbooks.com mcgrew.info nooze.org
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Thursday May 25 2017, @09:16PM
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 2, Informative) by mcgrew on Thursday May 25 2017, @06:39PM (2 children)
> But anyone who knows anything about math[sic]
Math [merriam-webster.com]
You forget that over here we say "trunk", not "boot" and "hood", not "bonnet". You have the OED, we have Webster's.
mcgrewbooks.com mcgrew.info nooze.org
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Thursday May 25 2017, @09:14PM (1 child)
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday May 26 2017, @02:57AM
It's almost as annoying when you do it.