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The rate at which new technologies get accepted into the mainstream never fails to confuse people. For the longest time, cell phones appeared to be the exclusive domain of yuppies, bankers and drug dealers. And then, suddenly, my mum had one. (No, she doesn't sell drugs.)
Could we see a similar rapid adoption for electric vehicles?
The LA Times reports that Q1 electric car (EV) sales are up 91% in California. Sales of Plug-In Hybrids (PHEV) are up 54% too. This is, of course, only one quarter, from one state, so let's not get too excited. And the actual number of units sold—13,804 EVs and 10,466 PHEVs—is still tiny compared to the 506,745 cars and light trucks sold in the state during the same period. But anyone who knows anything about math can tell you that it doesn't take long for a 91% growth rate to start making serious inroads into a particular market. (Electric car sales in Norway have already reached as high as 37% of new passenger vehicles.)
It's possible the muscle memory developed for cellphones could help with EV adoption, too: plug in the phone at night, plug in the car at night.
(Score: 2) by gman003 on Thursday May 25 2017, @10:10PM
True, but on the other hand, doubling transistor count every 18 months got us from the 4004 to the 6950X. If BEV sales continue to roughly double annually, they'll quickly reach market domination, slowing only when they hit near-total saturation.
The real question is, what kind of curve are we looking at, and what part of the curve did this period cover? If it's a linear growth, that's one thing. Quadratic, another - and was 2017 before or after the inflection point?