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Modern-day inventors—even those in the league of Steve Jobs—will have a tough time measuring up to the productivity of the Thomas Edisons of the past.
That's because big ideas are getting harder and harder to find, and innovations have become increasingly massive and costly endeavors, according to new research from economists at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. As a result, tremendous continual increases in research and development will be needed to sustain even today's low rate of economic growth.Nicholas Bloom, a SIEPR senior fellow and co-author of the forthcoming paper, contends that so many game-changing inventions have appeared since World War II that it's become increasingly difficult to come up with the next big idea.
[...] Turning its focus to publicly traded companies, the study found a fraction of firms where research productivity—as measured by growth in sales, market capitalization, employment and revenue-per-worker productivity—grew decade-over-decade since 1980. But overall, more than 85 percent of the firms showed steady, rapid declines in productivity while their spending in R&D rose. The analysis found research productivity for firms fell, on average, about 10 percent per year, and it would take 15 times more researchers today than it did 30 years ago to produce the same rate of economic growth.
https://phys.org/news/2017-06-big-ideas-harder.html
[Source]: https://siepr.stanford.edu/news/productivity-ideas-hard-to-find
[Paper]: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?
Do you think that innovative ideas are hard to find ??
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Tuesday June 06 2017, @05:36PM (5 children)
I think the problem is people remember the hits and forget about the gaps between. Music and movies and books and poetry are the same way, that's why people always complain modern stuff isn't as good.
This just isn't true. There are rises and falls with different things, and the way the music industry in America works today is very different from how it worked 30+ years ago. That's why you don't see anything like Led Zeppelin today with any significant commercial success, just some shitty pop. It also depends on what you like; if you like Big Band music, then it's objectively false to say "the new stuff is just as good", because there really isn't any new stuff; that kind of music peaked many decades ago. Same thing if you like Baroque music: that peaked several centuries ago. If you like Glam Metal, that peaked in the 80s; no one's making that any more now. So yes, things really do change, and depending on your tastes, some things really were a lot better in the past. Same goes for movies: today's Hollywood movies are really quite different from decades ago, for many reasons: filmmaking techniques have changed, acting methods have changed (go watch stuff from the 30s or 40s), and also the economics have changed a lot. Hollywood is far more risk-averse these days than it used to be, which is why we have so many sequels and prequels and remakes than during the 70s or 80s: they might cost a lot, but they're virtually guaranteed to make a return on the investment, even if it's not as much of a profit as a surprise hit.
We don't need a new practical cellphone that obsoletes everything that came before it every month.
There's a such thing as "maturity". Products and industries mature over time. Back in the early days of cars, there were all kinds of changes, and many things were not standard. They didn't even all have steering wheels! There was a big argument over whether cars should have steering wheels or tillers (!). A lot of people thought tillers were better. All kinds of different engine designs and body styles were tried. Eventually they settled down on the stuff we've had now for the last several decades; the industry and technology because mature. The same thing's happening with cellphones; for a while, there were huge changes every year, and a new phone could do lots of stuff that one from 3 years before couldn't. The iPhone was a big change in the industry, and that "slate" form-factor was quickly copied and became the standard, rather than slide-out keyboards, trackballs, etc. Now they're getting mature; a 3-year-old flagship phone works fine and really doesn't lack much compared to a brand-new phone. This happens in every technology industry.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday June 06 2017, @07:47PM (4 children)
FM radio, as a counter-cultural outlet, was credited with the shaping of the classic rock icons of the late 60s / early 70s. By 2001, the stations were "owned" to a point that John Lennon's "Imagine" was placed on a "Do Not Play" list following the September 11 attacks.
The internet is even more "free" in the flow of information, music and video, but it's not a focusing influence the way an FM radio station used to be.
Oh, and as for "Glam Metal" - I wouldn't say that nobody is making that anymore, just that they're not making big money from the mainstream distribution channels on it anymore, same for Big Band, Baroque, etc. - the "long tail" served by Amazon and similar retailers keeps these genres available for purchase, and I'm sure there's a venue or two in the world having a "Glam Metal" revival concert this weekend, literally dozens of people will be attending.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Tuesday June 06 2017, @08:10PM (3 children)
The internet is even more "free" in the flow of information, music and video, but it's not a focusing influence the way an FM radio station used to be.
Exactly; as I said before, the way the music industry works today is very different. Sure, there's tons of bands and musicians out there doing their own thing, mixing and making their own recordings using PCs or Macs, but it's not the same as when you had record companies' A&R people scouting talent and then developing them and bringing them to the radio. Wikipedia's A&R page [wikipedia.org] is pretty interesting here. Geffen's Gary Gersh signed Nirvana even though alternative wasn't considered commercial, and had to convince others to push the record; imagine how the 90s would be different if he hadn't done all that (for better or worse). John H. Hammond signed Billie Holiday, Bob Dylan, Aretha Franklin and Bruce Springsteen; imagine how different music would be now if that hadn't happened. But now this has changed: "The general move towards more conservative and business-minded signings from the 1980s onwards is seen to be symptomatic of an industry where the most powerful figures are no longer music fans or people with musical backgrounds, but business people. Traditionally A&R executives were composers, arrangers and producers ... but an A&R with musical ability and knowledge has become a rarity." So as I said before, the music business is entirely different now. This just isn't a case of "you only remember the good stuff and forget about the crap"; things really are different now. At the very least, if you do really believe that great, innovative new music is still being made somewhere, because of how different the music business is, it's pretty hard to find it. It's a lot easier hearing something new that you like when it's on the radio in a time when everyone listens to the radio and the music is promoted commercially, rather than now when you have to go looking for it because it's made in someone's basement and there's no promotion at all. And this still ignores the issues of professional vs. amateur production: there's a lot more to recording music and making it sound good than just setting up some microphones and hitting "record" on some software program.
Oh, and as for "Glam Metal" - I wouldn't say that nobody is making that anymore, just that they're not making big money from the mainstream distribution channels on it anymore, same for Big Band, Baroque, etc. - the "long tail" served by Amazon and similar retailers keeps these genres available for purchase, and I'm sure there's a venue or two in the world having a "Glam Metal" revival concert this weekend, literally dozens of people will be attending.
Citation needed. I seriously doubt *anyone* is actually making any new glam metal any more. Sure, you'll see old bands/musicians from past eras play concerts of their old stuff, or you might see cover bands playing someone's old stuff, but that doesn't count, just like doing "Hamlet" at your local community theater doesn't count as "making Middle English plays". No one's actually making new stuff, with fans actually buying and listening to it.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday June 06 2017, @08:32PM
I don't have "the goods" on Glam Metal, but the Journey story (Arnel Pineda replacing Steve Perry) is a pretty strong example of cultural icons echoing around the globe - before he was discovered Arnel didn't just sing Journey songs, he was a huge fan and did great homage, but it's not a stretch at all to think that somewhere there's a group that does a little more than just cover songs. I forget the name, but I saw an AC/DC cover band once - they hit all the covers, but did a couple of their own things in the genre too.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by kaszz on Tuesday June 06 2017, @11:25PM
That's common theme in many industries. Corporations run by MBAs, generalists, economists etc.. all with a lack of touch what they are really doing. They are essentially running cognitively blind since they won't realize big mistakes or good opportunities.
(Score: 2) by urza9814 on Wednesday June 07 2017, @07:18PM
Dude, half a second on Google would have gotten you an entire Wikipedia page listing glam metal bands, many of which are still active and producing albums:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_glam_metal_bands_and_artists [wikipedia.org]
But "Glam metal" also isn't a distinct sub-genre the way "doom metal" or "black metal" is. There's a half dozen interchangeable terms, most of which refer more to the appearance of the artists than the actual style of music. People are still producing that style of music, they just call it hard rock or heavy metal or something instead of glam metal. The word "glam" is what died, nothing more than that.
And FYI, people do still make Middle English plays too:
https://www.amazon.com/Two-Gentlemen-Lebowski-Excellent-Tragical/dp/1451605811 [amazon.com]
https://www.backstage.com/review/ny-theater/off-off-broadway/two-gentlemen-of-lebowski/ [backstage.com]