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posted by CoolHand on Tuesday June 06 2017, @08:15PM   Printer-friendly
from the alert-the-titanic dept.

The rift in the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica has grown by 17km in the last few days and is now only 13km from the ice front, indicating that calving of an iceberg is probably very close, Swansea University researchers revealed after studying the latest satellite data.

The rift in Larsen C is likely to lead to one of the largest icebergs ever recorded. It is being monitored by researchers from the UK's Project Midas, led by Swansea University.

Professor Adrian Luckman of Swansea University College of Science, head of Project Midas, described the latest findings:

"In the largest jump since January, the rift in the Larsen C Ice Shelf has grown an additional 17 km (11 miles) between May 25 and May 31 2017. This has moved the rift tip to within 13 km (8 miles) of breaking all the way through to the ice front, producing one of the largest ever recorded icebergs.

The rift tip appears also to have turned significantly towards the ice front, indicating that the time of calving is probably very close.

The rift has now fully breached the zone of soft 'suture' ice originating at the Cole Peninsula and there appears to be very little to prevent the iceberg from breaking away completely."

Researchers say the loss of a piece a quarter of the size of Wales will leave the whole shelf vulnerable to future break-up.

Larsen C is approximately 350m thick and floats on the seas at the edge of West Antarctica, holding back the flow of glaciers that feed into it.

Professor Luckman added, "When it calves, the Larsen C Ice Shelf will lose more than 10% of its area to leave the ice front at its most retreated position ever recorded; this event will fundamentally change the landscape of the Antarctic Peninsula.

We have previously shown that the new configuration will be less stable than it was prior to the rift, and that Larsen C may eventually follow the example of its neighbour Larsen B, which disintegrated in 2002 following a similar rift-induced calving event.

The MIDAS Project will continue to monitor the development of the rift and assess its ongoing impact on the ice shelf. Further updates will be available on our blog (projectmidas.org),and on our Twitter feed"

The team say they have no evidence to link the growth of this rift, and the eventual calving, to climate change. However, it is widely accepted that warming ocean and atmospheric temperatures have been a factor in earlier disintegrations of ice shelves elsewhere on the Antarctic Peninsula, most notably Larsen A (1995) and Larsen B (2002).

They point out that this is one of the fastest warming places on Earth, a feature which will certainly not have hindered the development of the rift in Larsen C.

-- submitted from IRC


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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 06 2017, @09:18PM (8 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 06 2017, @09:18PM (#521580)

    The team say they have no evidence to link the growth of this rift, and the eventual calving, to climate change.

    What a strange thing to say. How could it not be related? Literally everything that happens on Earth is linked to the climate (almost by definition) except this event?

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 06 2017, @09:22PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 06 2017, @09:22PM (#521582)

    I mean here is a partial list of things related to climate change: http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/globalwarming2.html [whatreallyhappened.com]

    Now that Trump is US president are we going to get endless news stories about how this or that is not related to climate change?

  • (Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Tuesday June 06 2017, @09:47PM (4 children)

    by PartTimeZombie (4827) on Tuesday June 06 2017, @09:47PM (#521594)

    The thing that worries me is that it is winter in Antarctica. It has been getting colder for the last few months, and yet this rift is still growing.

    • (Score: 2) by zocalo on Tuesday June 06 2017, @10:11PM (2 children)

      by zocalo (302) on Tuesday June 06 2017, @10:11PM (#521617)
      Possibly it's past the point of no return? Images captured by the British Antarctic Survey in February showed that the rift was quite wide and, while jammed with smaller bergs (growlers), the ocean under the ice shelf was clearly visible in places, so there may not be structure to keep the mass of the future berg stable. The amount of force acting on the rift with each rise and fall of the tide (such as it is, that close to the pole) must be immense, so even if it is freezing up, if the tidal motion is enough to keep fracturing the ice again, putting more sheering pressure on the bit that hasn't yet fractured each time, then it's probably just a matter of time, regardless of the season.
      --
      UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 06 2017, @11:55PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 06 2017, @11:55PM (#521666)

        If its thawing and re-freezing, that would add stress too. Since water that refreezes in the crevice would have to expand.

      • (Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Wednesday June 07 2017, @03:13AM

        by PartTimeZombie (4827) on Wednesday June 07 2017, @03:13AM (#521739)

        That does seem likely. As well as stress from tides, there will be some pretty fierce storms at this time of the year on the Antarctic Peninsula you would imagine.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 07 2017, @08:46AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 07 2017, @08:46AM (#521814)

      The thing that worries me is that it is winter in Antarctica. It has been getting colder for the last few months, and yet this rift is still growing.

      The rift is not the ice thawing, but breaking in two. It has simply become too big to hold together - the part breaking off is resting on water, which does not provide a stable foundation.

      While the strength of the ice may be related to temperature, that only influences how large an iceberg[1] can become before breaking off - and this one is huge.

      [1] Well, technically it's not an iceberg until it breaks off.

  • (Score: 2) by julian on Wednesday June 07 2017, @12:29AM (1 child)

    by julian (6003) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday June 07 2017, @12:29AM (#521675)

    Climate change definitely causes this to happen more, but we can't know if any particular calving was caused by climate change or would have happened regardless even if humans were out of the equation. It's like how there will be more and stronger hurricanes due to climate change, but hurricanes existed long before humans did so you can't say for certain if any particular hurricane today could have been prevented.

    • (Score: 2) by WalksOnDirt on Wednesday June 07 2017, @02:55AM

      by WalksOnDirt (5854) on Wednesday June 07 2017, @02:55AM (#521729) Journal

      Current scientific estimates are that there will be fewer but stronger hurricanes. It's difficult to predict, so that may or may not come to be.