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https://www.hpcwire.com/2017/06/29/ai-end-game-automation-work/
This week, we're reporting on a startling, scholarly white paper recently issued by researchers from Yale, the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford and the AI Impacts think tank that adumbrates the AI world to come.
The white paper – "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?", based on a global survey of 352 AI experts – reinforces the truism that technology is always at a primitive stage. Impressive as current Big Data and machine learning innovations are, they are embryonic compared with Advanced AI in the decades to come.
High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will transform the life we know. According to study, it's not just conceivable but likely that all human work will be automated within 120 years, many specific jobs much sooner.
[...] The study asked respondents to forecast automation milestones for 32 tasks and occupations, 20 of which, they predict, will happen within 10 years. Some of the more interesting findings: language translator: seven years: retail salesperson: 12 years; writing a New York Times bestseller and performing surgery: approximately 35 years; conducting math research: 45 years.
The researchers point to two watersheds in AI revolution that will have profound impact. The first is the attainment of HLMI, "achieved when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers."
The researchers reported that the "aggregate forecast" gave a 50 percent chance for HLMI to occur within 45 years (and a 10 percent chance within eight years). Interestingly, respondents from Asia are more sanguine about the HLMI timeframe than those from other regions – Asian respondents expect HLMI within about 30 years, whereas North Americans expect it in 75 years.
AI research will come under the power of HLMI within 90 years, and this in turn could contribute to the second major watershed, what the AI community calls an "intelligence explosion." This is defined as AI performing "vastly better than humans in all tasks," a rapid acceleration in AI machine capabilities.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 01 2017, @08:17PM (8 children)
In high school (1970s) we discussed what job would be safe from automation. There really isn't one.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 01 2017, @10:05PM (3 children)
How about the oldest profession?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 01 2017, @11:26PM
None of pimping, prostitution, or thievery are impossible to automate, although the likelihood is probably somewhat lower simply due to their respective natures.
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Saturday July 01 2017, @11:28PM (1 child)
Google "real doll"...now add AI & increased robotization.
P.S.: It's already reportedly being worked on.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 2) by Gaaark on Sunday July 02 2017, @08:38PM
Yes!
I'm STILL waiting :(
Watch Lars and the Real Girl, with Ryan Gosling. Weird, weird movie, but probably going on in Japan right now.
--- Please remind me if I haven't been civil to you: I'm channeling MDC. ---Gaaark 2.0 ---
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 02 2017, @12:54AM
Duh... hookers.
(Score: 2) by Magic Oddball on Sunday July 02 2017, @10:24AM (2 children)
No, there's at least a few for the foreseeable future: animal training/handling, plumber, electrician, plus the professional level of live performance for athletics (including equestrian sports), dancing, inventing, acting, writing fiction, and other non-visual creative disciplines. Doubtless there's a lot of other careers I'm forgetting or not even aware of, too.
From what I can tell, most of the jobs that are going to last the longest against AI are the ones that have been increasingly devalued for the past 50 years due to not being sufficiently STEM-oriented.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 02 2017, @03:30PM (1 child)
animal training/handling and live performers - agreed, will be ok for a long time.
athletes - don't know, I don't follow sports much. I do know that attendances at the big football games here have been slowly falling for years. Attendance at local amateur games is up.
plumber, electrician - won't go away, but will be devalued as plumbing and electical systems become more plug and play, mass produced modules (produced in robot factories). Probably will split into levels, Master can do anything, Installer can swap in new bits in existing systems. Pretty sure electrician is already heading that way.
writing fiction - there are already systems that can almost write saleable bodice ripper level fiction. They will continue to improve. There will also be the possibility of human/AI joint authorship where the AI does the grunt work and the human sort of directs the story and polishes the result. This will massively increase the output of some authors.
Journalism - we have Bots posting stories here.
ones you missed:
Personal servants. Will hang around as a status symbol for the 1%. (Probably monitored by AI though to make sure they don't shake the crying rich kids.)
Politicians - somebody has to take the bribes and pass the laws.
(Score: 1) by anubi on Monday July 03 2017, @03:56AM
Has anyone seen a robot that will come into someone's house and replace the toilet?
"Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]