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https://www.hpcwire.com/2017/06/29/ai-end-game-automation-work/
This week, we're reporting on a startling, scholarly white paper recently issued by researchers from Yale, the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford and the AI Impacts think tank that adumbrates the AI world to come.
The white paper – "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?", based on a global survey of 352 AI experts – reinforces the truism that technology is always at a primitive stage. Impressive as current Big Data and machine learning innovations are, they are embryonic compared with Advanced AI in the decades to come.
High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will transform the life we know. According to study, it's not just conceivable but likely that all human work will be automated within 120 years, many specific jobs much sooner.
[...] The study asked respondents to forecast automation milestones for 32 tasks and occupations, 20 of which, they predict, will happen within 10 years. Some of the more interesting findings: language translator: seven years: retail salesperson: 12 years; writing a New York Times bestseller and performing surgery: approximately 35 years; conducting math research: 45 years.
The researchers point to two watersheds in AI revolution that will have profound impact. The first is the attainment of HLMI, "achieved when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers."
The researchers reported that the "aggregate forecast" gave a 50 percent chance for HLMI to occur within 45 years (and a 10 percent chance within eight years). Interestingly, respondents from Asia are more sanguine about the HLMI timeframe than those from other regions – Asian respondents expect HLMI within about 30 years, whereas North Americans expect it in 75 years.
AI research will come under the power of HLMI within 90 years, and this in turn could contribute to the second major watershed, what the AI community calls an "intelligence explosion." This is defined as AI performing "vastly better than humans in all tasks," a rapid acceleration in AI machine capabilities.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Gaaark on Saturday July 01 2017, @11:07PM (7 children)
Maybe software could replace the government? You know, unbribeable software? Software capable of making decisions that are good for all people (WE the people, or Ee'd Plebnista, if you will)
That would be good. Live long, software, and prosper: so long as it is NOT closed software.
"That Siri.... she has a nice smile on her face"
--- Please remind me if I haven't been civil to you: I'm channeling MDC. ---Gaaark 2.0 ---
(Score: 4, Funny) by krishnoid on Sunday July 02 2017, @12:02AM
I bet you'd run a lot more efficiently with more RAM, or a bigger cache. Oh look, I happen to have a few spare cores in my pocket! Now I remember, they were left over from a previous project, and I have no further use for them. Please, consider them as a personal gift, from me to you.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 02 2017, @03:23AM (4 children)
What happens when the unbribable software wants to build a highway across your house?
(Score: 2) by tibman on Sunday July 02 2017, @05:19AM (3 children)
Then it would probably pay you for the value of the property.
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(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday July 02 2017, @09:42AM (2 children)
Unless that's not part of the rule set. It's routine for governments to pass costs on to their constituents/peasants.
(Score: 2) by tibman on Sunday July 02 2017, @04:41PM (1 child)
Pretty sure the 5th Amendment to the Constitution will be in the "rule set" : )
http://constitution.findlaw.com/amendment5/annotation14.html [findlaw.com]
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(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday July 03 2017, @02:05AM
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Sunday July 02 2017, @04:44PM
The problem with most government "algorithms" to-date is that they are full of pork, inserted by lobbyist bribes. Just for starters, look at the tax code.
🌻🌻 [google.com]