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posted by martyb on Saturday July 01 2017, @07:00PM   Printer-friendly
from the 'singular'-accomplishment dept.

https://www.hpcwire.com/2017/06/29/ai-end-game-automation-work/

This week, we're reporting on a startling, scholarly white paper recently issued by researchers from Yale, the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford and the AI Impacts think tank that adumbrates the AI world to come.

The white paper – "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?", based on a global survey of 352 AI experts – reinforces the truism that technology is always at a primitive stage. Impressive as current Big Data and machine learning innovations are, they are embryonic compared with Advanced AI in the decades to come.

High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will transform the life we know. According to study, it's not just conceivable but likely that all human work will be automated within 120 years, many specific jobs much sooner.

[...] The study asked respondents to forecast automation milestones for 32 tasks and occupations, 20 of which, they predict, will happen within 10 years. Some of the more interesting findings: language translator: seven years: retail salesperson: 12 years; writing a New York Times bestseller and performing surgery: approximately 35 years; conducting math research: 45 years.

The researchers point to two watersheds in AI revolution that will have profound impact. The first is the attainment of HLMI, "achieved when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers."

The researchers reported that the "aggregate forecast" gave a 50 percent chance for HLMI to occur within 45 years (and a 10 percent chance within eight years). Interestingly, respondents from Asia are more sanguine about the HLMI timeframe than those from other regions – Asian respondents expect HLMI within about 30 years, whereas North Americans expect it in 75 years.

AI research will come under the power of HLMI within 90 years, and this in turn could contribute to the second major watershed, what the AI community calls an "intelligence explosion." This is defined as AI performing "vastly better than humans in all tasks," a rapid acceleration in AI machine capabilities.


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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 01 2017, @11:26PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 01 2017, @11:26PM (#534023)

    None of pimping, prostitution, or thievery are impossible to automate, although the likelihood is probably somewhat lower simply due to their respective natures.