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posted by Fnord666 on Thursday July 13 2017, @11:07AM   Printer-friendly
from the semi-news dept.

Tesla has been in the news a lot in the last week, with their Model 3 going into production, and their announcement of the world's largest lithium-ion battery storage project in South Australia.

The latest news is unofficial, but from generally reliable sources. A website called Teslarati has published screenshots from Kim of the Like Tesla YouTube channel, which seem to indicate that she and other top referrers are now being offered discounts on "a Founder's Series next gen Roadster" as part of Tesla's referral program. If true this would seem to indicate Tesla formally taking a step forward in the level of their commitment to actually going ahead with this vehicle. They stopped producing their original Roadster in 2012, the same year they started delivering their Model S to customers.

There is also speculation online that the Next Gen Roadster will be one of the "few other things" to be mentioned at the unveiling of the Tesla Semi in late September, as alluded to by Elon Musk (Tesla's CEO) at a shareholder meeting last month.


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  • (Score: 2) by n1 on Thursday July 13 2017, @07:19PM (3 children)

    by n1 (993) on Thursday July 13 2017, @07:19PM (#538819) Journal

    Rather than writing a comment about how we shouldn't be giving the company that needs no advertising, free advertising about speculation of a possibility that there at some point will be a product to allow a chance to join in the 'early adopter' party of the second generation roadster, yet another status symbol product from TSLA, i will just copy some of the comment I made on the last TSLA story we did...

    https://soylentnews.org/comments.pl?noupdate=1&sid=20433&page=1&cid=536731#commentwrap [soylentnews.org]

    In 2014 Musk said they were aiming for 50% annual growth in just Model S for 2015 and beyond... 2014: 31k ... 2015: 50k ... 2016: 51k ... 2017: ??? but with figures so far, they're going to still be around the 50k mark.

    [...] Tesla does have high gross margins, industry leading even... (I am not an accountant) ... However, they do not include R&D, Sales or Admin costs in their margin calculations.... This is significant, most manufactures do include R&D... Tesla has continual R&D on a longer timeframe than most manufactures, since they have so far continued to make significant updates to their existing product lines. The there's the sales and admin costs... Tesla beats other manufacturers because they have margin on wholesale whereas Tesla has margin on retail... But other manufacturers do not own and operate all the sales, service centers and supercharger network... These are hugely significant costs, and will continue to grow in line with revenue/sales as the need for more infrastructure to support the potentially millions of vehicles they hope to sell. Tesla SG&A costs are 10x higher than industry standards. So that, along with their R&D costs means their notable gross margins are not representative of the true costs and margin.

    [...] My problem is they make announcements about reveals of the next big thing a year or two before they happen, and before the the last product revealed comes into production. It just indefinitely extends the time horizon on which you can evaluate Tesla on tangible information as a sustainable business model worthy of support or investment. I am actually looking forward to the pick-up, but i'd rather they announced that just after actual customers got their hands on the model 3, rather than 6+ months before non-insiders got their hands on the M3. And in the midst of all the other announcements.... [...] There's been no updates on M3 reservations, they initially omitted less favorable 'in transit' figures from the latest financial statements, which until then had been included when they were increasing...

    [...] While pushing the world to move onto 'sustainable energy' is the stated goal, my perception is the focus is on 'S3XY' ... the optics, status, ego more than the noble goal. The solar roof is an example of this, existing solar tech is pretty good and could be improved upon... What doesn't improve the efficiency, availability and wider adaption of this technology is making it into aesthetically pleasing tiles... For all the 'futuristic' elements of the car design, the solar roof is being designed to fit in with a century+ old visual. What it looks like is more important then getting a solar roof onto as many homes as possible.

    How much more capex and opex in the next 2 years is it going to take Tesla to develop the semi, the pickup truck, the model y and the new next gen roadster along with the solar roof tech (still no functional prototypes demonstrated) and whatever other projects they have on the back burner for when a disappointing quarter comes to an end.

    Tesla is currently 'production constrained' due to 'new battery technology' whilst working at 'full production capacity' amid falling sales (massacres in the Hong Kong and Denmark makets) and they're “just no room at Fremont, we are bursting at the seams,” and yet is going to scale up this 'full production capacity' to include hundreds of thousands of M3, developing and releasing the MY along with the semi,pickup and roadster.

    It is good that there's so much positive speculation to happen around the same time as actual tangible information is showing signs of peak demand in regard to existing product lines, and the M3 and solar roof can now be brushed aside if expectations are not met, already onto the next big thing, and we can shift our time horizons yet again.

    "Well, I feel confident saying that Tesla does not need to ever raise another financing round." - Elon Musk 2011

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  • (Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 14 2017, @12:14AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 14 2017, @12:14AM (#538911)

    anyone interested in Denmark can read this,
        http://nordic.businessinsider.com/denmark-is-killing-tesla-with-a-jaw-dropping-94-sales-drop--and-elon-musk-saw-it-coming-2017-6/ [businessinsider.com]

    Tesla saw a jaw-dropping sales drop between 2015 and 2016.

    Tesla was hit the hardest. Just compare the sales of all Tesla vehicles (mostly Model S) in Denmark 2015-16:

    2015: 2738 Tesla vehicles sold
    2016: 176
    2017 (q1): 6

    Year-on-year change, 2015 to -16: - 93,5 %

    Denmark was not an insignificant market for Tesla. In 2015, the country accounted for more than five percent of all Tesla purchases.

    Danish tax breaks for imported electric cars have been taken away...

    Are you still so sure that electric cars are taking over in a few years? I never was, the big tax incentives and "the latest thing" have driven a fad, but it won't last.

  • (Score: 2) by Open4D on Friday July 14 2017, @08:21AM (1 child)

    by Open4D (371) on Friday July 14 2017, @08:21AM (#539016) Journal

    Ha! After our previous discussion [soylentnews.org], when I subsequently saw this story I knew I had to submit it to draw this response from you!

    Just kidding. In fact, AFAICT, this is the first indication that Tesla has officially made any kind of commitment to making a new Roadster. Elon's tweets (like this [twitter.com]) are one thing. But for Tesla to use their official app to tell some of their most valued customers that in exchange for helping Tesla, they can get a discount on the new Roadster, seems almost as close to an official announcement as you can get (apart from an actual official announcement).

    So if by this ...

    Rather than writing a comment about how we shouldn't be giving the company that needs no advertising, free advertising

    ... you meant that this story shouldn't have been submitted by me or accepted by the editors, then obviously I disagree.

    • (Score: 3, Insightful) by n1 on Friday July 14 2017, @10:20PM

      by n1 (993) on Friday July 14 2017, @10:20PM (#539371) Journal

      I really appreciate your comment and the submission in general. It's nice to have a constructive disagreement on the internet!

      As I am actually an editor for SN, personally I wouldn't have accepted it, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't have submitted it or someone else accept the submission.

      I probably take the strongest stand on the relevance and validity of stories, defend some, reject others.... But no one has veto power over a story, and I'm happy to go along with consensus but will also share my thoughts in the comments.

      my only concern about my rants on this topic is that they can be seen as a dismissal of BEV or alternative fuel vehicles, which they are not, I just have big issues with how Tesla and Musk do business, as someone who has run their own business, I don't see how anyone can replicate the successes or emulate the business model in another sector. It is impossible to teach a lesson or learn from Musk as an entrepreneur and visionary in business and technology.