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posted by Fnord666 on Thursday July 20 2017, @06:54PM   Printer-friendly
from the it-IS-rocket-science dept.

Speaking at the International Space Station Research and Development conference, Elon Musk said that a successful maiden flight for Falcon Heavy was unlikely:

SpaceX CEO and founder Elon Musk has downplayed the chances of a successful inaugural flight for his Falcon Heavy space launch vehicle, admitting there is a "good chance it would not make it to orbit in its first launch."

Development of the booster rocket, which is powered by 27 engines, has proven to be "way harder than the team initially thought," he told the International Space Station Research and Development conference on Wednesday.

Falcon Heavy will be the most powerful rocket booster in the world, capable of delivering a 54 ton payload into orbit.

Musk said that combining three Falcon 9 rockets together had multiplied vibrations throughout the vehicle making it difficult to test without a launch.

The maiden test flight is due to take place toward the end of the year.

As if watching the inaugural launch of the most powerful rocket since the Saturn V were not tempting enough, how many more people will watch in hopes of seeing it go BOOM!?


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  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by kaszz on Thursday July 20 2017, @07:17PM (9 children)

    by kaszz (4211) on Thursday July 20 2017, @07:17PM (#542025) Journal

    "54 ton payload into orbit" .. LEO orbit? geosynchronous? TLI?
    To make ballpark Saturn V comparison that is needed to know.

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  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by Immerman on Thursday July 20 2017, @08:19PM

    by Immerman (3985) on Thursday July 20 2017, @08:19PM (#542049)

    Given the nature of press releases, presumably 54 tons is the largest payload it could deliver to *any* orbit. That in turns implies LEO, since if it could reach anything higher it could also deliver a more impressive payload to LEO.

  • (Score: 2) by richtopia on Thursday July 20 2017, @09:00PM (6 children)

    by richtopia (3160) on Thursday July 20 2017, @09:00PM (#542058) Homepage Journal

    Sorting the following list by kg to LEO helps give some perspective:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_orbital_launch_systems [wikipedia.org]

    Unfortunately it separates retired from present/future, so the comparison there is a little slow. Saturn V and Energia have huge payloads.

    • (Score: 2) by frojack on Thursday July 20 2017, @11:07PM (5 children)

      by frojack (1554) on Thursday July 20 2017, @11:07PM (#542095) Journal

      True, but Falcon Heavy could theoretically lift 4 or 5 times what SaturnV or Energia could.

      The sheer Bomb Factor of an on-pad explosion would be astounding.

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      • (Score: 2) by takyon on Friday July 21 2017, @12:51AM (2 children)

        by takyon (881) <reversethis-{gro ... s} {ta} {noykat}> on Friday July 21 2017, @12:51AM (#542120) Journal

        True, but Falcon Heavy could theoretically lift 4 or 5 times what SaturnV or Energia could.

        What does that mean? That they will have 10x more launches of Falcon Heavy?

        Falcon Heavy is neat. But if you want to get excited about something, the planned SpaceX Interplanetary Transport System launch vehicle [wikipedia.org] would have 2x the LEO payload of Saturn V [wikipedia.org] in reusable mode, and 4x in expendable mode.

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        • (Score: 2) by kaszz on Friday July 21 2017, @05:15AM (1 child)

          by kaszz (4211) on Friday July 21 2017, @05:15AM (#542200) Journal

          What does that mean? That they will have 10x more launches of Falcon Heavy?

          Presumably that it can be scaled up. Some designs can't.

          • (Score: 3, Interesting) by takyon on Friday July 21 2017, @05:20AM

            by takyon (881) <reversethis-{gro ... s} {ta} {noykat}> on Friday July 21 2017, @05:20AM (#542201) Journal

            I don't think Falcon Heavy will be "scaled up" that much. Falcon 9 was actually scaled up somewhat, allowing it to lift more massive loads including some intended for launch with Falcon Heavy. But at the end of the day the next step is to go from Falcon Heavy to the Interplanetary Transport System, in order to lift superheavy loads much bigger than what Saturn V could lift. And it will be glorious (if it gets made).

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      • (Score: 2) by kaszz on Friday July 21 2017, @05:11AM

        by kaszz (4211) on Friday July 21 2017, @05:11AM (#542197) Journal

        The sheer Bomb Factor of an on-pad explosion would be astounding.

        I think NASA uses a distance of 10 km for safety. Essentially anything closer can run a serious risk of incineration. To visit the zone during risk of rocket failure a retired tank is used for protection.

      • (Score: 2) by Immerman on Saturday July 22 2017, @12:54PM

        by Immerman (3985) on Saturday July 22 2017, @12:54PM (#542878)

        How do you figure? Is there an error on the linked Wikipedia page? Because it says their respective payloads to LEO are
        Falcon Heavy: 63.8Mg
        Saturn V: 140Mg
        Energia: 100Mg
        Which puts a theoretical Falcon Heavy at about half the launch capacity we had in the 70s

        Perhaps you're thinking of the far more theoretical SpaceX "Interplanetary Transport System launch vehicle" which is speculated to be able to lift 550Mg? That would certainly be cool, and I'd love to see the Bigelow inflatable space habitats built to be launched by that sucker! But it's just a *wee* bit premature to start counting on that working out as planned.

        As the saying goes - "In theory there's no difference between practice and theory. In practice there is."

  • (Score: 2) by legont on Friday July 21 2017, @12:53AM

    by legont (4179) on Friday July 21 2017, @12:53AM (#542122)

    Just to cover everything, canceled Russian projects: Energia 100 ton leo, 18 ton geo; Vulcan 200 ton leo. https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%AD%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%B8%D1%8F_(%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%B0-%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C) [wikipedia.org]

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