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posted by martyb on Friday July 21 2017, @04:51PM   Printer-friendly
from the it's-tubular,-man dept.

You'd better get that in writing:

A plan to build an ultrafast Hyperloop [One] tube train has been given "verbal [government] approval" to connect large cities on the East Coast, tech entrepreneur Elon Musk says. He adds that the system would whisk passengers from New York to Washington, D.C., in 29 minutes.

After his tweet about the plan set off intense interest, Musk added a clarification, stating, "Still a lot of work needed to receive formal approval, but am optimistic that will occur rapidly."

We're seeking more details from Musk and his companies that are involved in the Hyperloop project — from the vehicle unit to the Boring Co., which would dig the tunnels. He did not specify, for instance, which agency had given its approval or when construction might begin.

Engineers who are working on the project have the goal of sending pods through a tube at speeds of more than 700 mph, using magnetic levitation and an electric motor in a vacuum environment.

The Boring Company's mundane tunneling plans may have been a red herring to distract from underground Hyperloop development.

Is this how Muskmania dies? With an undeliverable promise of multi-billion dollar infrastructure? Or will Musk deliver a transportation system faster than the highest-speed rail, create the world's most valuable car company, and build a Hyperloop on Mars designed to transport him from the ice caps to his throne (crafted from the disinterred bones of Steve Jobs) at Olympus Mons?


n1 writes:

A White House spokesman said there had been "promising conversations to date" with Musk and Boring Company executives but would only say the administration is “committed to transformative infrastructure projects, and believe our greatest solutions have often come from the ingenuity and drive of the private sector.”

Several spokespeople who answered the phones at relevant city, state and federal government bodies laughed upon hearing of the claim that an interstate transit project with a significant street-level footprint in four of the east coast’s largest cities could be approved verbally.

“Who gave him permission to do that?” asked a spokesman with the Maryland department of transportation.

“Elon Musk has had no contact with Philadelphia officials on this matter,” said Mike Dunn, the city spokesman. “We do not know what he means when he says he received ‘verbal government approval’. There are numerous hurdles for this ‘hyperloop’ technology before it can become reality.

A spokesperson for the state of Pennsylvania confirmed that neither the governor nor the state’s department of transportation had been contacted by Musk or his company.

Ben Sarle, a spokesman for the New York City mayor’s office, said in an email: “Nobody in City Hall, or any of our city agencies, has heard from Mr Musk or any representatives of his company.”

The Guardian article [emphasis added] continues on with quotes from government officials in New York, Washington DC and federal agencies who had similar statements.

This news comes the day after the SolarCity co-founder, Peter Rive announced his resignation. Lyndon Rive left the company in May. Tesla has been taking pre-orders for their new solar roof tiles since May. Installations were supposed to begin in June, but there has been no further news, functional product demonstrations or even technical specifications.

Earlier this week Elon Musk told the National Governors Association meeting that the solar roof for the Model 3 (or any car) was not practical and was an idea that would be "scrapped."

James Murdoch, Chief Executive Officer of 21st Century Fox and Linda Johnson Rice, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Johnson Publishing Company have joined the Tesla board of directors on Monday. Earlier this year, a letter from shareholders raised concerns about conflicts of interest among board members.


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  • (Score: 2) by BasilBrush on Friday July 21 2017, @08:41PM (8 children)

    by BasilBrush (3994) on Friday July 21 2017, @08:41PM (#542556)

    Mike Tyson is not a nuclear engineer.

    Elon musk is a very successful engineering manager and entrepreneur.

    If you think that what Tesla and SpaceX have done is easy, then you don't have a clue about either.

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  • (Score: 4, Interesting) by n1 on Friday July 21 2017, @08:50PM (7 children)

    by n1 (993) on Friday July 21 2017, @08:50PM (#542564) Journal

    I did some napkin calculations on some possibly out of date figures... Elon's personal share TSLA holdings are worth about $60,000 per car sold, as the company continues to lose money (over $1bn this year probably) and has absolutely no time horizon for profitability.

    Solar City was so successful it has to be absorbed into TSLA to avoid bankruptcy.

    People can have faith in Musk, believe in what he's selling... He's a very special case, basically no one can do what he's done, without connections to people like Thiel and cult of personality being cultivated around him, which really picked up steam after the Steve Jobs story ended.

    His most amazing successes are raising capital and convincing investors, delivering effective (in cost and scale) revolutionary technological solutions to practical problems has yet to be demonstrated.

    • (Score: 2) by BasilBrush on Saturday July 22 2017, @12:01AM (6 children)

      by BasilBrush (3994) on Saturday July 22 2017, @12:01AM (#542646)

      Presumably you also thought that Amazon was a big fat failure all the years they were growing rather than generating profits. It's what you do when you are going from being a startup to the international big league.

      Revolutionary technological solutions to practical problems has yet to be demonstrated? Try taking a look at SpaceX's rocket booster coming back down to lans precisely on it's launch platform. A feat NASA thought impossible.

      What is it with geeks and their jealousy of successful people?

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      • (Score: 2) by n1 on Saturday July 22 2017, @01:18AM (2 children)

        by n1 (993) on Saturday July 22 2017, @01:18AM (#542675) Journal

        Amazon and Tesla are very different beasts and not really comparable. Same as the people who talk about Tesla and iPhones... Relatively, iPhones and everything sold on Amazon is cheap and within reach of most consumers. 'S3XY' packaged tech that has a barrier to entry of tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars is not the same thing and cannot scale in the same way.

        Seven years after IPO, Tesla has a P/E of -49.5 ... Seven years after IPO, Amazon had a P/E of 46.23 ... Now Amazon has a PE of 415. Amazon is currently massively overvalued... If Musk was doing this all by himself, I wouldn't really care but he's selling a dream to retail investors and governments and is reaping the rewards before the game has even changed, let alone being the MVP of it (on tangible, publicly available information). It may well be a noble goal, but he's going about it in a way that is all about how things look, rather than the nuts and bolts and getting these products into as many markets and hands as possible, to save the world. The barrier to entry to owning a Musk product is so much higher than an Amazon or Apple product. The similarities could be that all three are big fans of walled gardens and retaining control over products they sell to the customer.

        I cannot find the 'NASA said it's impossible' quote... Not cost effective was the contention from what I could find... There is no evidence that Space X has made this a cost-effective alternative. It could be the wal-mart approach, kill the competition whilst losing money, then make the money back when you have the monopoly. Nor do I understand how this is a solution to a problem. Doing something you couldn't do before isn't better by itself, what are the cost and/or operational benefits? Aside from potentially putting ULA out of business, what effect does this have? As i've mentioned in comments before, the most interesting part of Musks operations (SpaceX) is the part which he and his associates keep for themselves and does not have to disclose the financial status of. NASA managed to put people on the moon and then take off again all those decades ago.

        “We tried to make the engines reusable for 55 flights,” he said in Paris last month. “Look how long and how much money it took for us to do that, and we still weren't successful for all parts.”

        While NASA is using SSMEs to power its new heavy-lift Space Launch System (SLS), Dumbacher says the cost of refurbishing the engines means the agency has no plans to reuse them. [aviationweek.com]

        I am not jealous of Musk. My contention is that no one can seek to emulate his 'successes' and any benchmarks available to measure the successes in a way that would be repeatable and worthy of praise are always moved onto the next project. The turning point into a sustainable business model are not visible to anyone. He is in a very unique circumstance which you cannot use as a model for your own business or vision of a better future. All you can do is buy stock in TSLA and have faith in the messiah.

        • (Score: 2) by BasilBrush on Saturday July 22 2017, @12:03PM (1 child)

          by BasilBrush (3994) on Saturday July 22 2017, @12:03PM (#542866)

          I guaratee that you were nay-saying Apple all the way up too.

          "is reaping the rewards before the game has even changed"

          EVs are on an enevitable technology adoption curve to domination of the market. And virtually all car manufacturers have realised it now, and are all struggling to catch up. If you don't see that, then that's your failure.

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          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 22 2017, @05:21PM

            by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 22 2017, @05:21PM (#542964)

            > EVs are on an enevitable technology adoption curve to domination of the market.

            This is not a given. First, what is a reasonable definition of "domination"? For USA, trucks & SUV's are currently more than half of new sales of "light vehicles". So even if all cars were replaced with electrics, it still would not be half of all vehicles sold.

            There are plenty of hurdles left for electric adoption including the additional generation capability required. Then there are all the renters that have no charging option with street parking. Sales for pure EVs in various parts of the world have collapsed recently when government subsidies were removed (see Denmark -- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-02/denmark-is-killing-tesla-and-other-electric-cars [bloomberg.com] ). This is about to happen to Tesla in USA when they produce vehicle number 200,001 -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_incentives_for_plug-in_electric_vehicles#United_States [wikipedia.org]

            If you include hybrids, their market penetration has dropped in the last couple of years, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicles_in_the_United_States [wikipedia.org] Only Toyota has really done well in this area, other companies have not had much success.

            I see pure EVs as a good niche solution for up to about 5% of the USA market, looking 10-15 years out. Far from "domination".

      • (Score: 2) by n1 on Saturday July 22 2017, @03:18AM (2 children)

        by n1 (993) on Saturday July 22 2017, @03:18AM (#542716) Journal

        Another thing that is maybe worth considering are the two new appointments to the Tesla board of directors.

        James Murdoch and Linda Johnson-Rice are not engineers, scientists, or even business analysts, CFOs or anything else that would add value to the board... They are media moguls, artists at crafting messages, telling stories and managing perceptions. They are not people who are going to take Elon to task over the financial status, legal barriers, the technical challenges or anything actually business related. So long as the share price can keep on it's current trajectory -- and capital injections are available -- these new board members will have no concerns of how the company is being managed or if there's sustainable business model at scale.

        Personally, I am waiting to see how well the Model 3 is received, when they're actually in the wild, being reviewed by people who are not insiders or fans. It could be the turning point, but even before it's launched the attention is shifting to the Model Y as the real game changer... I am curious to see if the sales and deliveries meet projections. This is the closest thing the company has to a near term 'mass market' product, but it's still not the magic bullet in my opinion.

        I know very few people who could make use of a plug-in EV (in Europe) ... People park on the street, I used to have to park 2 or 3 blocks from my house. Same applies at the business parks where the typical M3 owner will go to work, the infrastructure is not in place and is not a realistic prospect to retrofit into business/industrial parks or inner cities in general for EV charging. My opinion is the majority of Model 3 buyers will have it as a second or third car, and many will already own a Model S. It's not going to put a dent into sales of the Toyota Camry or any other entry level family car.

        I know even fewer people who own a house, that's before we find some with the finances to put a $60k solar roof on it. I don't think anyone I know has ever had the need to replace an entire roof of traditional tiles (in the UK).

        If they're aiming for mass market adoption to get the world onto renewable/sustainable energy, and not concerned about short-term profit in pursuit of this very noble goal they're doing it wrong... If they're aiming for being a marketing company who also sells status symbols for virtue signaling to people who have a lot of cash, then they're doing it right.

        We're getting late into this current business cycle, can Tesla survive an economic contraction, recession or a depression? The company has been thriving while burning money so far, in age of unconventional monetary policy such as QE and extremely low interest rates, coupled with a stock market that keeps growing across the board while profits have not moved an inch for years.

        But maybe it's different this time, we're at a new permanently high plateau where having a vision is enough to pay the bills on your multi-billion dollar capital intensive business operations.

        • (Score: 2) by frojack on Saturday July 22 2017, @05:58PM (1 child)

          by frojack (1554) on Saturday July 22 2017, @05:58PM (#542995) Journal

          Personally, I am waiting to see how well the Model 3 is received, when they're actually in the wild, being reviewed by people who are not insiders or fans. It could be the turning point, but even before it's launched the attention is shifting to the Model Y as the real game changer... I am curious to see if the sales and deliveries meet projections.

          They don't have to meet projections or delivery estimates.
          The mere delivery of a few vehicles will impact competitors.

          Its already killed Chevy Bolt sales. [reuters.com] Chevy can't GIVE those cars away.

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          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 22 2017, @06:47PM

            by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 22 2017, @06:47PM (#543036)

            You didn't read far enough down that Reuters article:

            The automaker also builds the Chevrolet Sonic small car at the Orion plant, and sales of that car are down nearly 37 percent for the year to date.

            A spokesman for the company said the shutdown at Orion was "due solely to softening sales of the Sonic" model, adding that its production plan for the Bolt for this year was unchanged.