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posted by cmn32480 on Wednesday July 26 2017, @05:55AM   Printer-friendly
from the I'm-sorry-Dave,-I-can't-do-that dept.

[...] some experts believe as much as 95% of passenger miles could be electric, autonomous by 2030, thanks to some basic economics. Because electric vehicles cost a whole lot less to drive and maintain—but more to buy—and because autonomous vehicles greatly reduce the cost of commercial driving, a combination of the two technologies will make autonomous Transportation as a Service exponentially more cost competitive than either owning a car, or hiring a car and driver. It's also exponentially more profitable for car companies, who have long feared the loss of maintenance and service profits associated with a transition to electric cars.

This question will come up more frequently as self-driving technology advances. Will perfection of that technology make a difference, though, in the face of social behaviors that have been deeply ingrained over the past century?


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  • (Score: 3, Interesting) by zocalo on Wednesday July 26 2017, @07:58AM (9 children)

    by zocalo (302) on Wednesday July 26 2017, @07:58AM (#544535)
    The UK's Transport Secretary is due to announce an intention to ban the sale [bbc.co.uk] of new diesel and petrol cars in the UK from 2040 later today, with the expectation that by then all new vehicles with be electric or hybrid. Additional measures to be enacted earlier include taxes on higher polluting vehicles on numerous stretches of road that are subject to especially poor levels of air quality primarily as a result of traffic and higher taxes. If you're in the UK, then your next car had probably better plug-in, or it's going to get much more expensive to run...

    Hopefully the funds being set aside to help deliver all this and make it work are going to be sufficient to help cover the necessary roll out of additional EV charging points and provide extra capacity on the power generation side to actually enable all these EVs to work, because for all the years of talk of super batteries that charge instantly etc. we're still waiting for one to actually ship...
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  • (Score: 2) by choose another one on Wednesday July 26 2017, @12:45PM (8 children)

    by choose another one (515) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday July 26 2017, @12:45PM (#544608)

    > the necessary roll out of additional EV charging points

    This is the massive problem no one is really dealing with. There are over 25 million cars in the UK and something like 30% (more in london) of households have no off-street parking - so probably over 8 million cars. Currently ( http://www.nextgreencar.com/electric-cars/statistics/ [nextgreencar.com] ) there are around 13k public charging points for 100k EVs to, but that ratio will have to increase massively to cope with EVs that will have no private charging points. If there are 8 million EVs that have no home charger and maybe half of them want to charge overnight you need at least 4 million public charging points (or 4 million in the right place), at currents costs (public points are over 10x more than at-home installs) that is a £40bn+ investment. In context, over 20yrs that would be about a quarter of all UK road infrastructure spending diverted to EV charging. Ain't gonna happen.

    Fast public chargers that are while-you-wait (rather than leaving the car there) are a more likely solution, same model as petrol stations, trouble is then the elephant-in-the-room of grid capacity comes in to play - current plans to resolve that are that all the EVs and charging points will form a "smart" grid charging the EVs as and when the grid can cope (presumably guaranteeing you car will be charged at some point before you need it...) but to do that, the EVs have to be plugged in for considerable time, which means there needs to be somewhere to plug them in to, and you are back to the investment requirement above. Maybe you'll just pay more for public chargers and less if you (can) charge at home - but that may raise the EV cost to more than ICEs (already has in some cases: https://www.autocar.co.uk/opinion/anything-goes/day-electricity-became-more-expensive-diesel [autocar.co.uk] ).

    My one actual prediction is that your next car will be more expensive to run, regardless. The tax lost on fuel duty, vehicle duty etc. will need to be recouped in some way by the government machine, so the free rides and subsidies for EVs _will_ end, and the massive charging and generating infrastructure investment _will_ have to be paid for. I reckon we'll end up with pay-per-mile taxes at least for urban areas and major roads by 2040 anyway. The congestion charge zones and "smart motorways" are a starter for the infrastructure on that - I certainly can't see the charge zones miraculously going away when most/all cars are EV.

    • (Score: 2) by zocalo on Wednesday July 26 2017, @01:14PM (2 children)

      by zocalo (302) on Wednesday July 26 2017, @01:14PM (#544613)
      I'm also in a different corner case that's preventing me from switching to a pure EV. I spend quite a bit of time driving in rural environments - sometimes hundreds of miles a day including getting to/from the area - with stops in places where there is not likely to be an EV charging point, even with a major national role out. Charging up over night shouldn't prevent much of a problem, but as things stand making potentially lengthy mid-day detours to find a charging point then waiting for a good chunk of full charge cycle is something of a show-stopper. The ~500-600 mile range of my current diesel is ideal for this kind of usage, the ~200-250 mile range of even a good EV, especially once you've allowed for the drive to the charging point... not so much.

      Once there are multiple EV charging points on every forecourt, including in rural areas, then I might be able to consider going down the EV route but, even then, I'm still going to want faster charges and longer ranges to avoid making to many compromises. And, as you note, it's all got to be paid for, so once the subsidies are inevitably removed it's still doubtful that petrol and/or diesel will go away entirely - they'll almost certainly still be needed for the hybrids used by those that do the long distance highway driving where ICEs are relatively clean and efficient. Still, in the UK's case the major change isn't due for 20 years, and that's assuming there's no pushback if progress is slower than expected, so there's a good chance that much of the infrastructure will be in place, one way or another. Quite what the running costs are going to be is another matter entirely, and if they're high enough maybe the second part of the prediction - less car ownership - might not be too far off the mark.
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      UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
      • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Wednesday July 26 2017, @09:59PM (1 child)

        by Phoenix666 (552) on Wednesday July 26 2017, @09:59PM (#544886) Journal

        Once there are multiple EV charging points on every forecourt, including in rural areas

        Flip that around, though, and say "until there's a gas station on every forecourt, including in rural areas I'll never consider an ICE." Clearly that's not the case, and yet people still do own ICEs.

        If you are driving 500-600 miles per day or more, you're likely a trucker or a delivery guy. Fuel costs are a significant marginal cost to doing business, so finding a way to maintain operations on that route with recharging would help your bottom line a lot. If you're not a trucker or delivery guy with a regular route, but rather a travelling salesman or insurance investigator or something, you're probably going to be assigned to a region and you could figure out a way to make sure you take your half-hour lunch at a convenient charge point every day. Dollars to donuts you already probably refuel at the same gas stations every day anyway but just don't think about it that way.

        Maybe none of that still fits your edge case, but it might. If you can save a lot on fuel costs and the higher maintenance cost of ICEs, it might be worth a second look.

        --
        Washington DC delenda est.
        • (Score: 2) by zocalo on Wednesday July 26 2017, @11:49PM

          by zocalo (302) on Wednesday July 26 2017, @11:49PM (#544925)
          To clarify, I didn't say I was driving 500-600 miles a day, just that was the range of my car on a full tank. My particular (rather niche) corner case is actually my hobby/secondary career - photography - which will often entail driving a couple of hours before dawn to the middle of nowhere, doing a sunrise shoot, then puttering around the locale with my camera during the day waiting for sunset before driving home again, or a bit of wild camping somewhere if I'm doing a multi-day trip. With an ICE I can avoid the whole rural forecourt issue simply by filling up at a convenient point on the way out, but with current EVs I'll need to factor at least one re-charge into the middle of a trip, and probably three for a typical Scottish Highlands trip. That is certainly doable, but it would also mean quite a large chunk of time out of the trip given the UK's current distribution of charging points [zap-map.com] and the nature of some of the available roads, which were essentially route-planned by wandering livestock and flowing water. It might only be 30-50 miles to the nearest charging point, but if it takes three or four hours just getting there and back, the loss of time and flexibility with the weather and location selection starts to significantly detract from the reason for going in the first place.

          Absolutely agree on the cost issues; I could probably save quite a bit (at least with current comparative costs), not to mention cut back on the pollution I'm creating which bothers me as well, but right now the logistics of a pure EV are just too much of a stretch. On the plus side, the number of EV charging points in the UK is going up fast (262 points in the last 30 days [zap-map.com], apparently) so I figure if I go with a hybrid for my next car, then if this initiative works as well as I hope it will, then combined with further tech advances by the time I'm thinking about my next-car-but-one a pure-EV might actually be doable.
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          UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
    • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Wednesday July 26 2017, @04:55PM (4 children)

      by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Wednesday July 26 2017, @04:55PM (#544739) Homepage Journal

      It's no different than the turn of the twentieth century. The first gasoline pump was patented in 1901, in Norway. The buildup in infrastructure will be FAR less than a century ago when there were few roads. Before the 20th, they sold gasoline in hardware stores.

      They had to build roads and gas stations for all those cars and trucks. The roads and feul stations already exist, and retrofitting a gas station to charge EVs is trifling in comparison to a century ago.

      Your prediction does not take into account the fact that there is very little maintenance needed in an EV. No oil or coolant changes, no transmission so no tranny fluid. And far fewer moving parts. They will likely be more expensive to buy, at least at first, but will be far cheaper to run--especially of your house's roof is a solar panel.

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      mcgrewbooks.com mcgrew.info nooze.org
      • (Score: 3, Informative) by Unixnut on Wednesday July 26 2017, @07:34PM (2 children)

        by Unixnut (5779) on Wednesday July 26 2017, @07:34PM (#544816)

        It's no different than the turn of the twentieth century. The first gasoline pump was patented in 1901, in Norway. The buildup in infrastructure will be FAR less than a century ago when there were few roads. Before the 20th, they sold gasoline in hardware stores.

        It is a bit different. The poorer range of electric cars means that you will need far more charging stations then pumping stations, because you can't go as far on a "full tank" equivalent. Also, liquid fuels are quick. You can refill most cars in under 30 seconds, upon which you get another 500 or so miles of range. The fastest charging stations still can't match that (and they damage the battery, further reducing the range, by quick charging), so while a pumping station may do fine with 4 bays with constant turnover of cars every minute or so, the charging stations will need many many more bays, so people can park up and have a coffee or something while the charger does its thing.

        Also, pumping stations have fuel delivered to them by trucks, while charging stations will need some serious copper wiring to their location to be able to charge all those cars quickly, so it is a lot more expensive to put charging stations outside of areas where there is already a lot of decent grid connections.

        That is a far larger investment then the original required for pumping stations, and with a far higher corresponding cost. In fact in some places in Europe, the costs of charging an electric car have exceeded the cost of diesel equivalent, not because of the cost of the electricity (yet) but because of the cost of all the land, the heavy duty grid connection, building out all the infrastructure, etc... Quite a few electric car owners are complaining about the costs, and this is still with the massive government subsidies provided to them (and no fuel tax like IC cars). If those ever go the prices will go even higher.

        Your prediction does not take into account the fact that there is very little maintenance needed in an EV. No oil or coolant changes, no transmission so no tranny fluid. And far fewer moving parts. They will likely be more expensive to buy, at least at first, but will be far cheaper to run--especially of your house's roof is a solar panel.

        I haven't worked on EV cars myself, but I know people who have. They still need maintenance. First there is the standard "car things" like bushings, etc... that need to be taken care of. EVs still have oil (all moving parts need oil, especially if you want to extract as much energy as possible by reducing friction) and coolant (electric motors, while efficient, do generate heat, and the electrics and batteries also generate a good amount of heat, especially when charging), and those need to be changed.

        Likewise they have transmissions as well (because motors don't have a linear torque curve, but the inverse of IC engines. They have max torque and 0rpm and it decreases from there, so EVs tend to have at least two gear transmissions). The Tesla had 4 such gearboxes, in each hub, and they all need oil changes.

        Sure, might not be as often as on IC cars (although generally you don't change the oil that often, once every few years, unless you are ragging the car) but it still needs maintenance.

        Plus, there is one massive maintenance bill, and that is the battery. Unlike Liquid fueled cars, where the tank always holds the same amount of energy, the battery loses capacity with age, temperature and charging cycles. How quickly it loses charge depends very much on how you use it, and charge it (fast charging apparently happens at the expense of battery life). Seems you will be lucky to have 50% of your range after a few years, which is no big deal if you change your car as often as you change your phone, but for most people, cars tend to be big purchases that last years, if not decades.

        and when the battery is not fit to hold a charge, the costs of recycling it and getting a new one will exceed the cost of the car most likely. They are eye-wateringly expensive. TBH not sure the TCO of EVs are actually much better than normal cars, and I suspect might actually be worse.

        • (Score: 2) by TheRaven on Thursday July 27 2017, @07:51AM (1 child)

          by TheRaven (270) on Thursday July 27 2017, @07:51AM (#545052) Journal

          It is a bit different. The poorer range of electric cars means that you will need far more charging stations then pumping stations, because you can't go as far on a "full tank" equivalent

          Modern EVs can go about 300 miles on a full charge. A Model T Ford could go around 200. Of course, that's not an entirely fair comparison, because back then most people didn't commute further than they could easily walk or regularly travel further than they could go on a horse, unless they took a long railway trip.

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          sudo mod me up
          • (Score: 2) by Unixnut on Thursday July 27 2017, @10:02AM

            by Unixnut (5779) on Thursday July 27 2017, @10:02AM (#545094)

            That comparison makes no sense what so ever. All it shows that in 100 years of development, using liquid fuels still beats battery electric. It is the better solution, despite some people trying desperately to hammer a square peg into a round hole.

            The IC cars of the 1900's had competed with electric cars back then, but its primary competitor was the horse.

            Compared to horses, you needed fewer pumping stations than you needed horse feeding stations, and you didn't have to deal with horse shit all over the roads. It was a marked improvement, and even then it took a while for a car to become something other than a rich mans toy.

            Battery electric cars however, are a step back rather than forwards in every way possible except noise generated (they are quiet things). Their primary strength seems to be being "green", which while admirable, is of questionable honesty. The electricity needs to be generated, the generation losses, the transmission losses, and the charging losses means that from fuel source to motive power, they are probably at best 60% efficient, and efficiency goes down with battery wear. Ignoring the higher energy cost and more environmentally damaging production of EVs.

            As a result of them being seen as a step back rather than forward in the eyes of the masses, they are not really that popular. Hence the incentives in the form of government subsidies from their manufacture all the way to their running costs, to make them economically attractive. This has been working, but as more people buy EV due to their cheaper costs, the subsidy costs become higher for government, until they can no longer subsidise them. When the government cancels the subsidy, like Norway did recently, EV sales collapsed to nothing almost overnight.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 26 2017, @11:25PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 26 2017, @11:25PM (#544917)

        EVs have coolants systems if they want the batteries to work optimaly or not cook the power electronics. Gearboxes are used in some cases.

        The Volt has four loops. FOUR. Only one of them is for the gasoline engine, the other three involve electric parts. http://gm-volt.com/2010/12/09/the-chevrolet-volt-coolingheating-systems-explained/ [gm-volt.com]
        Other vehicles have similar setups too. Gearboxes still used, so that oil will need checks (no engine oil, but trans & bearings). http://www.hybridcars.com/2017-chevy-bolt-battery-cooling-and-gearbox-details/ [hybridcars.com]
        Hey, look, coolant replacement 160K milles / 250K Km. http://insideevs.com/chevrolet-bolt-requires-almost-no-maintenance-for-first-150000-miles/ [insideevs.com]
        EV have less maintenance. A lot less. http://insideevs.com/chevrolet-bolt-requires-almost-no-maintenance-for-first-150000-miles/ [insideevs.com]

        But better stick to the facts, they still need coolant and oils. A small rock can make you need go for a filling... and repairs, so it stops leaking steam. Ball bearings will still need checks and oiling. Transmissions too. Simpler systems than plain ICE but not coolant or oil free.