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from the I'm-sorry-Dave,-I-can't-do-that dept.
[...] some experts believe as much as 95% of passenger miles could be electric, autonomous by 2030, thanks to some basic economics. Because electric vehicles cost a whole lot less to drive and maintain—but more to buy—and because autonomous vehicles greatly reduce the cost of commercial driving, a combination of the two technologies will make autonomous Transportation as a Service exponentially more cost competitive than either owning a car, or hiring a car and driver. It's also exponentially more profitable for car companies, who have long feared the loss of maintenance and service profits associated with a transition to electric cars.
This question will come up more frequently as self-driving technology advances. Will perfection of that technology make a difference, though, in the face of social behaviors that have been deeply ingrained over the past century?
(Score: 2) by nobu_the_bard on Wednesday July 26 2017, @02:04PM (4 children)
Are we just making things up now? Alright.
This expert believes as much as 95% of all passenger miles in 2040 will be made by unicorn-pulled carts.
The electric cars need to be a lot better than they are now. The autonomous cars need to be much, much, much better than they are now to have enough reliability. Trying to predict whether they'll be good enough by 2040 is difficult without sounding crazy, as far as I'm concerned.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 26 2017, @03:32PM
By 2040, the electric cars will be a lot better than they are now. Remember, 2040 is 23 years from now. Now look at the development of the past 23 years, that is, since 1994. Do you have any indication that the next 23 years will see much less development?
(Score: 2) by mcgrew on Wednesday July 26 2017, @05:13PM (2 children)
When you've lived long enough to see how fast technology grows in your own lifetime you'll change your opinion. Things are common today that were impossible forty years ago. For instance, your phone is a more powerful computer than any that existed on Earth forty years ago. All of the stuff in the original Star Trek except teleporters, warp drives, and replicators we have today. Hell, flip phones (impossible in the 1960s) are obsolete! Kids today aren't impressed by any of their 23rd century tech (like self-opening doors, voice activated flat screen computers) because it's been here all their lives.
It's hard for a science fiction writer to keep up. There was a story in the Mrch/April F&SF magazine about self driving cars, the author stated he feared it would come true before it would be published.
You say electric cars need to be better than now, but Consumer Reports disagrees--their highest rated car is now the Tesla. In short, EVs are already better.
"Crazy" is predicting technological stagnation. Or perhaps not crazy, simply ignorant of very recent history.
mcgrewbooks.com mcgrew.info nooze.org
(Score: 2) by nobu_the_bard on Wednesday July 26 2017, @06:55PM (1 child)
My problem is counting on the problems being solvable by 2040; it's certainly possible, but I think drawing a line in the sand like this is not wise.
It's not only a problem of solving the technology, it's a problem of solving the logistics of deploying whatever it ends up needing and supporting the technology across an entire country sufficiently widely by the deadline that the law is actually useful.
Smartphones were cool but part of why they took off is because they are new and needed new infrastructure, but not as thoroughly integrated infrastructure. You build towers and you have cellphone service - practical autonomous cars may require changes in road technology or laws or maintenance logistics (I don't know though, since it's not really completely solved yet!), widespread electric cars may require changes in power grid, user/support training, and so forth (probably already well along towards happening though).
I think saying it'll not just be READY but NORMAL by 2040 is the problem with the proclamation. A lot can happen, will happen, in those 23 years. This might end up totally meaningless and wrong-headed.
(Score: 2) by mcgrew on Thursday July 27 2017, @06:39PM
Look at the history of the twentieth century. At the beginning, there were few roads and no gas stations. By 1920, cars and trucks had mostly taken over for the jobs that were previously done by horses and wagons. 2036 is twenty years away, and the only needed "infrastructure" is charging stations; the filling stations are already there and it would be trivial to outfit them with chargers.
mcgrewbooks.com mcgrew.info nooze.org