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posted by martyb on Thursday August 10 2017, @04:31PM   Printer-friendly
from the higher-food-prices-coming dept.

CleanTechnica reports

The "flash drought" that came out of nowhere this summer in the US High Plains, afflicting Montana and the Dakotas the worst, has already destroyed more than half of this year's wheat crop, going by some recent field surveys. Considering that the region is now one of the top wheat-growing regions in the world, the damage is very notable.

These so-called flash droughts are expected to become considerably more common over the coming decades as the climate continues warming and weather patterns continue changing.

[...] Something that's interesting to note here is that 2011, only 6 years back, was actually one of the wettest years on record in eastern Montana. Those sorts of rapid swings between extreme precipitation and flooding on the one hand, and extreme flash droughts on the other, are only going to become more common from here on out. Eventually, most of the agriculture in the region will have to cease.

Grist calls this a Cereal Killer.


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  • (Score: 4, Interesting) by fyngyrz on Thursday August 10 2017, @07:09PM (5 children)

    by fyngyrz (6567) on Thursday August 10 2017, @07:09PM (#551812) Journal

    farmers and ranchers usually can absorb a "big hit" every once in awhile. Part of their conservatism is driven by this. But it doesnt take too many big hit events in a row to push them over the edge.

    Agreed. But the land isn't gone, even if the farmer goes belly up. The bank or state will just sell the land to another farmer, who will pick up again where the other left off when the climate becomes more clement. And so it goes.

    I've lived in this area for a very long time - NE Montana - and I've watched the circumstances, comings and goings for decades. The farmers (and ranchers) are quite flexible as to what they'll plant, raise, etc., as the climate goes through its fits and starts. Plus, a lot of the area is irrigated; we have huge water reserves that are not sourced locally (Fort Peck lake [wikipedia.org], for instance.) I know many of these people; I'm all too familiar with their varying circumstances. They like to talk about them. There are many jokes about that... but I'll spare you. :)

    Frankly, the most worrisome threats to the area right now are the rumblings from the Trump administration that the region's Amtrak and airport passenger subsidies will be cut, basically eliminating ease of access to and from the area. Just like telephone service, these things address basic needs of the area, particularly as it's so isolated from the rest of the country. Making it even more difficult to live up here isn't prudent. We do supply a lot of goodness to the rest of the country. The basic financial picture of these services aren't enough to base such decisions upon. Because those won't be the only consequences. That's what people up here are really worried about.

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  • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday August 10 2017, @11:39PM (1 child)

    by Phoenix666 (552) on Thursday August 10 2017, @11:39PM (#551943) Journal

    If you're up around Jordan or Wolf Point I'm surprised anybody does any ranching or farming these days when the crazy lucrative work at the Bakken Formation is so near by.

    (As an aside, it's notable that there's such a relative abundance of Montanans on Soylent.)

    --
    Washington DC delenda est.
    • (Score: 3, Informative) by fyngyrz on Friday August 11 2017, @02:22PM

      by fyngyrz (6567) on Friday August 11 2017, @02:22PM (#552288) Journal

      The Bakken is a shadow of its former self. The bunkhouses sit empty, many of the wells have been capped, etc.

      The Bakken only existed because oil prices had risen. Unless/until they rise again, it's a done deal.

  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday August 10 2017, @11:51PM (2 children)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday August 10 2017, @11:51PM (#551950) Journal

    Frankly, the most worrisome threats to the area right now are the rumblings from the Trump administration that the region's Amtrak and airport passenger subsidies will be cut, basically eliminating ease of access to and from the area. Just like telephone service, these things address basic needs of the area, particularly as it's so isolated from the rest of the country. Making it even more difficult to live up here isn't prudent. We do supply a lot of goodness to the rest of the country. The basic financial picture of these services aren't enough to base such decisions upon. Because those won't be the only consequences. That's what people up here are really worried about.

    Well, I advocate eliminating agricultural subsidies. That would be even worse for the region, but better (through both cheaper food prices and less federal level spending) for everywhere else in the US which is a lot bigger. So I have no problem eliminating these lesser subsidies. My view is that this isn't about food production protection (the US produces a considerable surplus of food and IMHO would continue to do so even in the pure absence of agricultural subsidies) but rather about lifestyle protection. And I don't see enough value in this agrarian lifestyle to justify the infrastructure that the region is not willing to build or purchase itself.

    Further, Amtrak is grotesquely inefficient, due in large part to supporting routes like the above that don't have economic use.

    This sort of thing is how you buy votes to build the current corrupt mess in the US. I would not single out agriculture, Amtrak, or Montana as being particularly egregious (though some parts of agriculture are among the worst examples of corruption, harmful spending, and misguided policies out there). But I think there's going to have to be a lot of spending cuts across the board, including stuff like what you mention above, in order to have a stable future.

    • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Friday August 11 2017, @02:04PM (1 child)

      by Phoenix666 (552) on Friday August 11 2017, @02:04PM (#552276) Journal

      OK, if agriculture and ranching and food production in general aren't important enough for you, how about the missile fields [wikipedia.org] the infrastructure in Montana also serves? Oil production in the Bakken Formation, which is almost as much in NE Montana [wikipedia.org] as in NW North Dakota? Those things are manly and important enough to care about, aren't they?

      --
      Washington DC delenda est.
      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday August 11 2017, @08:30PM

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday August 11 2017, @08:30PM (#552561) Journal

        OK, if agriculture and ranching and food production in general aren't important enough for you, how about the missile fields the infrastructure in Montana also serves? Oil production in the Bakken Formation, which is almost as much in NE Montana as in NW North Dakota? Those things are manly and important enough to care about, aren't they?

        None of that stuff is dependent on Amtrak or airport subsidies. But yes, I don't consider them important enough. If the local economy can't find enough money to pay for its own airport service from oil production and such, then it probably shouldn't have that airport service. I don't mind if you choose to live in the middle of nowhere. But if you do, man up and accept that you don't deserve shiny services from the federal government just like no one else deserves such services for all the stuff they do or the places they live.