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A University of Arkansas mathematician argues that species, such as ours, go extinct soon after attaining high levels of technology.
"I taught astronomy for 37 years," said Whitmire. "I used to tell my students that by statistics, we have to be the dumbest guys in the galaxy. After all we have only been technological for about 100 years while other civilizations could be more technologically advanced than us by millions or billions of years."
Recently, however, he's changed his mind. By applying a statistical concept called the principle of mediocrity – the idea that in the absence of any evidence to the contrary we should consider ourselves typical, rather than atypical – Whitmire has concluded that instead of lagging behind, our species may be average. That's not good news.
[...] The argument is based on two observations: We are the first technological species to evolve on Earth, and we are early in our technological development.
[...] By Whitmire's definition we became "technological" after the industrial revolution and the invention of radio, or roughly 100 years ago. According to the principle of mediocrity, a bell curve of the ages of all extant technological civilizations in the universe would put us in the middle 95 percent. In other words, technological civilizations that last millions of years, or longer, would be highly atypical. Since we are first, other typical technological civilizations should also be first. The principle of mediocrity allows no second acts. The implication is that once species become technological, they flame out and take the biosphere with them.
Source: The Implications of Cosmic Silence
For background, see: Fermi's Paradox and the Drake equation.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 14 2017, @09:14AM
You're just being willfully ignorant. How easy was it to get the theory of relativity or any new science widely accepted if it went against the dogma of the day? Don't be a dumbass.
It's common knowledge that rocking the boat in academia gets you fired. Same thing in Silicon Valley now, right? Simply stating the truth gets you fired, don't come at me with static trying to claim that doesn't happen. Do you know how many paleontologists have found soft tissue in dinosaur bones and been fired over it? About 50. Now such evidence is gaining acceptance, [livescience.com] but only because they can't keep it quiet and mainstream academia now has some insane theory about protein elasticity rather that admit the precious Scaligarian timeline is wrong. You know who else called bullshit on Scaliger's Timeline? The famous Scientist and Chronologist Isaac Newton, maybe you've heard of him? Oh, but why didn't you know he disbelieved the BS historical narrative? Is it because your education was lacking and you never did any research beyond the required craptastic scholastic curriculum?
Fact is: There has never been a study to determine the rate of petrification of silt. Carbon 14 is made in the upper atmosphere and amount fluctuates depending on the solar cycle and CO2 outgassing of the planet, so its dating is highly inaccurate beyond ordering samples with a small delta in age. Radioactive dating is based primarily on the rock layers that samples are found near, and comparing other samples against those samples -- with zero evidence to suggest how old sedimentary rock actually is. We could have stuck a ruler in the sea floor and waited a decade or two to get the petrification rate, but we haven't. Do some research and you'll find a figure for petrification stated, but no primary source -- only papers that cite each other. Classic case of Citosis. Archaeologists have no idea how old the rocks actually are... But you'll just dismiss this because you're willfully ignorant about the truth of academia. You haven't done any research yourself, but you'll glibly snub your nose at others making some stupid and inaccurate quip that makes you feel better about your cognitive dissonance. Rather than realize the false god of academic purity does not exist, and that dogma and politics are rife in academia, you claim any mention of such to be too conspiratorial to entertain. It's not secret, you're just ignorant. Dumb as a rock and twice as blind.
Watch the linked videos if you're interested, they're from several sources, and you can search for even more yourself if you like. Esp. watch the one with stuff on the sea floor, you can verify it yourself and oceanic survey imagery backs it up. The general public is kept dumb not in secret, but openly. Elites think that people like you who believe TV propaganda are so dumb they'd be dangerous if given full knowledge of the truth of our world, so while the media and government funded schooling is dumbing you down deliberately [youtube.com], the truth is out there for you to find. If you don't want to find out, then just stay ignorant chump. No skin off my teeth.