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North Korea's nuclear test site at risk of imploding, Chinese scientist says
The single mountain under which North Korea most likely conducted its five most recent nuclear bomb tests, including the latest and most powerful on Sunday, could be at risk of collapsing, a Chinese scientist said.
By measuring and analyzing the shock waves caused by the blasts, and picked up by quake stations in China and neighboring countries, researchers at the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei, Anhui province, said they were confident that they were all carried out from under the same mountain at the Punggye-ri test site.
[...] Another test might cause the whole mountain to cave in on itself, leaving only a hole from which radiation could escape and drift across the region, including China, he said. "We call it 'taking the roof off'. If the mountain collapses and the hole is exposed, it will let out many bad things."
[...] Based on the fact that North Korea has a limited land area and bearing in mind the sensitivity of its nuclear program, it most likely does not have too many suitable peaks to choose from. How long the mountain would continue to stand would also depend on where the North Koreans placed the bombs, Wang said. "If the bombs were planted at the bottom of vertically drilled tunnels, the explosion would do less damage," he said.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by coolgopher on Thursday September 07 2017, @03:56AM (10 children)
Why? Because becoming a nuclear power is probably the *only* way for the leader of that country to be able to lift all the sanctions imposed on it by the rest of the world.
It all comes down to the first rule of negotiation - always negotiate from a position of strength.
The rest of the world really has two options. Either they let NK become a nuclear power, or they level the whole place. The first is the likely option, both because of political inertia, the damage that would be done to Seoul in the process, and because China would not much like the second option and is still hopeful of being able to exert sufficient influence even with a nuclear-capable NK. Trump is the "interesting" wildcard here, because he doesn't like losing, and losing is exactly what he'd do if he lets NK go nuclear.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 07 2017, @03:59AM
And what about the US having a massive army on it's border and a history of invading countries, including them? Naaaaah, he just cray cray.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 07 2017, @06:40AM (2 children)
> Because becoming a nuclear power is probably the *only* way for the leader of that country to be able to lift all the sanctions imposed on it by the rest of the world
Didn't Iran choose the other path?
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 07 2017, @07:51AM (1 child)
Yes, as did Libya [wikipedia.org], Ukraine [wikipedia.org] and South Africa. [wikipedia.org]
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Friday September 08 2017, @01:04PM
And I'm sure the strongly worded letter we sent to Russia in response to it's invasion of Ukraine, the minimum required by the "protection clause" of their disarmament treaty, has truly inspired other nations to take the same path...
Honesty, it seems increasingly clear that a nation has two options: be a nuclear power, or get trampled on whenever a nuclear power with a conventional military decides to do so. Other nuclear powers aren't going to risk getting pulled into a war for your sake. And with catastrophic climate change threatening to destabilize global politics over he course of the next century, you've got to know a lot of non-nuclear nations are eyeballing their options.
(Score: 3, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 07 2017, @06:48AM (3 children)
Who is lifting sanctions? The US will not trade with NK, even if NK has ICBMs with nukes. Neither will US allies. The US position is also strong.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 07 2017, @06:51AM (2 children)
What allies? The US still has allies?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 08 2017, @01:57AM (1 child)
Let's see. Australia is still brown-nosing. The UK claims to distance themselves from a Trump-led USA while still implementing as much of 1984 as possible to show the US it's indeed possible and how to do it. Japan is getting cold feet due to things potentially falling out of the skies on their way to the US. South Korea is getting frantic and might apply to join the union if the current pace keeps up. As for Canada and NZ, they're quietly evaluating the situation.
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Friday September 08 2017, @01:06PM
Dear lord, can you imagine the impact on our relations with China if we were to actually fully claim South Korea as US territory?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 07 2017, @01:53PM (1 child)
"The rest of the world really has two options. Either they let NK become a nuclear power, or they level the whole place."
Actually, another option is for China to get serious about sanctions.
They would not have to do any thing negative, just slow down the positive things they are currently doing like providing energy and trade.
For this to happen China has to decide that the risks of having this guy in power outweigh the rewards.
The guy has managed to change the situation over time to put the whole region at risk.
It is reasonable to see that what initially was a good deal for China may be evolving into a bad one they are in a unique situation to adjust.
Best possible outcome would be for NK to stay a separate country that joins the community of nations as a model citizen.
The current NK regiem could lead this if they have the ability to mend their ways.
I think they have pushed it too far for China to allow business as usual to continue.
(Too far being they are starting to put the security of China at risk.)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 07 2017, @05:59PM
So if China could act and chooses not to, is there something more to the story?
Is is plausable that NK doesn't have any nuclear technology and instead China found a way to get around the test ban treat?
Probably not, but it would explain the sudden existence of an NK fusion device and China's non-response.