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posted by martyb on Saturday September 09 2017, @09:25AM   Printer-friendly
from the all-the-ones-that-are-not-dead-yet? dept.

How many 18-34 year old people live in the US?

Facebook tells advertisers that they can reach up to 41 million users in the 18-24 age bracket. Sounds reasonable... However, one stock analyst (who unlike most analysts, has a "SELL" rating for Facebook shares) noticed that there are only 31 million people in the country in that age bracket (according to the Census Bureau.)

So who is right?

On the one hand, the Census Bureau has decades of experience coming up with scientifically accurate population estimates based on birth and death rates, immigration rates, representative surveys, and even literally going door to door and counting people.

On the other hand, Facebook data is both specific and granular. Users provide their birthdays, and Facebook captures where you log in from. So the company knows if you’re inside the boundaries of the U.S., and it knows how old you are.

Of course, in the advertising world, if a person doesn't exist how can you reach them?

Also reported by Reuters

Facebook Offering Access to more US Customers Than Actually Exist (Claims Analyst)

Spotted on The Register is an article on claims about the unreliability of Facebook's advertising statistics:

Facebook has an extensive and sophisticated ad-buying system that assures potential advertisers it can reach no fewer than 41 million of a core target group of 18 to 24-year-olds in the United States.

The only problem, analyst Brian Wieser of Pivotal Research Group pointed out in a note to customers, is that there are only 31 million of them that actually exist in the US, according to the official census data. The same gap in reality also holds for other groups, including the next most-targeted group of 25 to 34-year-olds.

Also at CNBC and Bloomberg


Original Submission #1Original Submission #2

 
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  • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 09 2017, @11:00AM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 09 2017, @11:00AM (#565583)

    Or any site that wants personal information? My profile there at least has the correct age. Born on 1April, though. Educated in the Dagobah system.

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  • (Score: 3, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 09 2017, @11:45AM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 09 2017, @11:45AM (#565606)

    Simple. The extra 10 million users are all Russians with fake US ids.

    • (Score: 3, Funny) by realDonaldTrump on Saturday September 09 2017, @12:10PM

      by realDonaldTrump (6614) on Saturday September 09 2017, @12:10PM (#565611) Homepage Journal

      You're saying Russia, Russia, Russia, but I don’t. Maybe it was. It could be Russia, but it could also be China. It could also be lots of other people. It also could be someone sitting on their bed that weighs 800 pounds. If you deduct the millions of #FacebookFakes there would be nothing left. There is no Facebook. Their leader is corrupt. Lying about a key demographic. #FuckZuck2020 pic.twitter.com/6D1O3FALbX 🇺🇸